October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[BxEngine]

7 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

And here is the gfs for the same time period:

 

 

 

[NJwx85]

Looks like 4.48" is just about going to do it. Winds here have consistently been gusting over 30MPH here all morning. Very, very impressive storm and well modeled system. The Euro led the way again per the usual. 

[ag3]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Looks like 4.48" is just about going to do it. Winds here have consistently been gusting over 30MPH here all morning. Very, very impressive storm and well modeled system. The Euro led the way again per the usual. 

Definitely. One of the best modeled systems we've ever had.

 

[bluewave]

New October low pressure record set for Albany.

Current barometric pressure of 976mb at Albany Int'l Airport sets a new record low for the month of October.

10:25 PM - 29 Oct 2017

 

 

[dmillz25]

4.05" should add a bit more then thats it

[NJwx85]

Looks like a lot of areas experienced over 4" of rain and most that didn't had at least 3". It appears that the highest totals were over Northeastern NJ and portions of the lower Hudson valley.

[snywx]

Chilly out there with snow falling about 30 miles to my west.. 42° right now, 3.28" in the bucket

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

You claiming one of these is a bust and one we should have relied on is plain and simple complete bs. 

Thank you makes my point very well, Euro was too far SW, GFS was too far east, the middle worked.  Don't throw out the GFS and blindly follow the Euro.  If you adjust the Euro for it's bias and adjust the gfs for it's, boom great forecast.

[hooralph]

1 hour ago, hooralph said:

Did not expect to wake up and see a death band about to pivot through (should get here as I need to leave with my son for school).

Meh. Radar sensitivity must be up. Thankfully, nothing but some gusty sprinkles.

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Thank you makes my point very well, Euro was too far SW, GFS was too far east, the middle worked.  Don't throw out the GFS and blindly follow the Euro.  If you adjust the Euro for it's bias and adjust the gfs for it's, boom great forecast.

You spent the last 2 days claiming this would be an epic Euro bust. So thank you for proving everyone's point that you are only here to troll. 

[ag3]

Just now, hooralph said:

Meh. Radar sensitivity must be up. Thankfully, nothing but some gusty sprinkles.

Moderate rain in NE Queens.

[ag3]

Just now, BxEngine said:

You spent the last 2 days claiming this would be an epic Euro bust. So thank you for proving everyone's point that you are only here to troll. 

And this was a very well modeled system. Far from a bust.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Thank you makes my point very well, Euro was too far SW, GFS was too far east, the middle worked.  Don't throw out the GFS and blindly follow the Euro.  If you adjust the Euro for it's bias and adjust the gfs for it's, boom great forecast.

The middle didn't work. The GFS was east of New England several days ago. Euro and UK verified best on track over the last week.

[NJwx85]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Thank you makes my point very well, Euro was too far SW, GFS was too far east, the middle worked.  Don't throw out the GFS and blindly follow the Euro.  If you adjust the Euro for it's bias and adjust the gfs for it's, boom great forecast.

If you look at the forecast from day 3 it wasn't even close. 

 

[BxEngine]

Just now, ag3 said:

And this was a very well modeled system. Far from a bust.

Yup. The euro was within a reasonable error spread from over 120 hours out. Because it was less than 50 miles too far west 24 hours out is nowhere near a bust.

[Morris]

3.28" in the park.

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

You spent the last 2 days claiming this would be an epic Euro bust. So thank you for proving everyone's point that you are only here to troll. 

Wrong, I spent the last two days hounding about the Euro west bias and it's mishandling Philippe trying to absorb it all.  I was 100 percent correct but will not receive any credit, this is expected.

[NJwx85]

At day 5, the Euro forecast was spot on, the GFS wasn't. 

 

[Rjay]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Wrong, I spent the last two days hounding about the Euro west bias and it's mishandling Philippe trying to absorb it all.  I was 100 percent correct but will not receive any credit, this is expected.

You were right abiut the Euro mishandling Phillippe but that's about it. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Thank you makes my point very well, Euro was too far SW, GFS was too far east, the middle worked.  Don't throw out the GFS and blindly follow the Euro.  If you adjust the Euro for it's bias and adjust the gfs for it's, boom great forecast.

Gfs was terrible with the low placement

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Wrong, I spent the last two days hounding about the Euro west bias and it's mishandling Philippe trying to absorb it all.  I was 100 percent correct but will not receive any credit, this is expected.

Again..The Euro didn't  ever absorb Phillippe. 

[BxEngine]

On 10/29/2017 at 7:15 AM, qg_omega said:

I would bet another historic bust for the Euro, it's lost in this storm

 

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Wrong, I spent the last two days hounding about the Euro west bias and it's mishandling Philippe trying to absorb it all.  I was 100 percent correct but will not receive any credit, this is expected.

Lol

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

 

Lol

The proof is in the pudding. The Euro wasn't perfect, but to say it busted badly is terribly analysis. Like weenie tag worthy. 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Again..The Euro didn't  ever absorb Phillippe. 

Agreed but the Euro weakened Phillippe too much up until 24 hours before the event (if i recall correctly).  With that said, Phillippe ended up having no bearing on the track of our system. 

 

The GFS was awful and the Euro saad stellar.

[BxEngine]

Just now, Rjay said:

Agreed but the Euro weakened Phillippe too much up until 24 hours before the event (if i recall correctly).  With that said, Phillippe ended up having no bearing on the track of our system. 

And because of the shape of the nj coast and the direction the storm was moving, any claim it was "way" too far west is utter nonsense. 

[BxEngine]

Anyway...lost some trees with that last line. Reports of trees on houses in northern part of rockland.

[bluewave]

 

 

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Agreed but the Euro weakened Phillippe too much up until 24 hours before the event (if i recall correctly).  With that said, Phillippe ended up having no bearing on the track of our system. 

The only product that the Op Euro puts out that I am not a big fan of is the wind gust product which is often overdone. I am wondering if that is an add on by vendors?  The EPS wind gust product was closer to reality. I know that the WXbell fronzen precip  algo is often incorrect. So maybe they are doing the same thing with the winds?

https://weather.us/forecast/5116931-farmingdale/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

[Morris]

And it's finally over.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Thanks Don, that's very low!  Offhand, any idea when our last  sub 29" pressure was? Is it a 1 in 10 year event?  I see the winds weren't as high as would be expected in our area with such low pressures, JFK and LGA didn't even hit 50 mph gusts even though sustained winds were near 40 mph?

What was the path of the low- right up the Hudson river?

 

Out to our east, looks like the winds were greater near where Philippe tracked, 82 mph near Cape Cod and an amazing 132 mph at Mt Washington!

 

 

The last time I had a reading at least as low as last night's was during Sandy. From what I saw, the storm tracked just to the west of the Hudson River. Had it been farther to the west, the NYC metro area would likely have seen stronger winds. All in all, it was still an impressive storm.

[Snowberd]

I’m not knowledgeable enough to know whether the Euro busted or not, can only speak for MBY, but having said that. I am located south nassau, in Oceanside. None of the models showed what I got. Which was 22 sustained winds at best, occasional gusts to 40 and rain totaled 1.6” as of 10:30pm. I was part of the dry slot that separated the west precip from east. Also of note was when the winds shifted around that time, the winds were calm! No model that I saw depicted that. When I saw TWC it showed my area was dead center of the surrounding isobars . Felt like we were in the eye. All models showed a variance of higher winds out east but none picked up the rain disparity between my area and everywhere else. I’m talking specifically about Oceanside, RVC, Lynbrook? I thought since I am practically on the water the wind would be higher. And was shocked at how little rain we got compared to everyone else.


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