October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[doncat]

0.31" here...also managed 75 degrees before the rain, close to a record high.

[NJwx85]

The HRRR has a lot of activity developing this afternoon, but mostly East of the NJ TPK.

[Brian5671]

new HRRR-probably overdone, but it has an area of enhanced precip later on...

[qg_omega]

14 minutes ago, danstorm said:

This appears to be the latest in a string of major underperformers - by major, I mean like at or below the 10th percentile outcome for the majority of the area.

Of course, this event is not over, but I wouldn't be shocked if the latest band passing through my section of NJ was more or less all she wrote.

agreed

[psv88]

Tropical stormish out here, pouring rains and howling winds. Rain guage is clogged by leaves and only at 0.03, happens in fall.

[NJwx85]

Up to 0.27" on the day and I seem to have luckily gotten under some training, so should pick up some decent totals.

[danstorm]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Up to 0.27" on the day and I seem to have luckily gotten under some training, so should pick up some decent totals.

Training of what? Light/mod showers? 

You'll be lucky to crack 0.5"

[NJwx85]

Just now, danstorm said:

Training of what? Light/mod showers? 

You'll be lucky to crack 0.5"

It's pouring here and dark enough to be dusk at the moment.

[hudsonvalley21]

3 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Training of what? Light/mod showers? 

You'll be lucky to crack 0.5"

Had some training here. Still moderate rain with a few rumbles of thunder. 1.67 in the bucket so far today. Just got the power back up.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Had some training here. Still moderate rain with a few rumbles of thunder. 1.67 in the bucket so far today. Just got the power back up.

It's a very localized event, but those that did get under the training did meet expectations, and it's not over yet.

[NJwx85]

The skies just opened up here, an absolute deluge. Up to 0.37" with R+++

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It's a very localized event, but those that did get under the training did meet expectations, and it's not over yet.

Winds have calmed down here now.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We really got spoiled during 2003-2011 when many events overperformed. Our precip patterns became more erratic here since 2012.

People have to remember that not every event is about their backyard. 

[psv88]

Lots of rain developing to the south of LI

[LIWeatherGuy29]

Strong winds knocked over some of my potted plants but so far not a drop of rain.

[Rtd208]

Have picked up 0.17" of rain so far today, not really expecting to much more since most of whatever heavier precipitation develops looks to fall to my east.

[danstorm]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

People have to remember that not every event is about their backyard. 

No, it's not... but the majority are underperforming expectations.  

This is different from a classic convective event.  The progs were for 1-3+ of rain over a widespread area for days.  In a repeat of the last several events, most west of the city won't break an inch. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, danstorm said:

No, it's not... but the majority are underperforming expectations.  

This is different from a classic convective event.  The progs were for 1-3+ of rain over a widespread area for days.  In a repeat of the last several events, most west of the city won't break an inch. 

In case you haven't noticed, it's not over yet, and more rain is developing to the South. Again, models are useful for narrowing down what areas are most favorable but cannot pinpoint the exact location and track of individual cells which ultimately decides who gets the heavy rain and who doesn't. It's a moist environment, with a strong LLJ, so it's not surprising that models were spitting out the amounts they did.

[NJwx85]

Up to 0.53" and things have finally lightened and brightened up.

[danstorm]

14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

In case you haven't noticed, it's not over yet, and more rain is developing to the South. Again, models are useful for narrowing down what areas are most favorable but cannot pinpoint the exact location and track of individual cells which ultimately decides who gets the heavy rain and who doesn't. It's a moist environment, with a strong LLJ, so it's not surprising that models were spitting out the amounts they did.

meh - enjoy your 0.53

[Brian5671]

yep, whoopdee doo.  Upton had this as a day and half event originally-most got rain for an hour or less...

[hudsonvalley21]

33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Up to 0.53" and things have finally lightened and brightened up.

Same here, skies clearing out. 1.93 will do it for the total.

[Juliancolton]

44 minutes ago, danstorm said:

meh - enjoy your 0.53

Turn around, don't drown 

[psv88]

45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep, whoopdee doo.  Upton had this as a day and half event originally-most got rain for an hour or less...

Yea this certainly goes down as a bust. Granted my rain gauge is clogged, but there is no way we got more than 0.40 or so

[LIWeatherGuy29]

Didn't get a drop of rain here. Both areas of rain missed me to the west and east. It hasn't rained here in 15 days. I'm hoping I get some rain tonight otherwise I'll have to go outside and water my plants.

[Cfa]

0.08 here.

Drove through a series of blinding downpours to come back to less than one tenth of an inch. Lol how predictable.

[psv88]

10 minutes ago, Cfa said:

0.08 here.

Drove through a series of blinding downpours to come back to less than one tenth of an inch. Lol how predictable.

Blinding rains out here right now. Wow. 

[weathermedic]

.04 at my station so far. Doesn't look like much else (if anything) for the rest of the night.

[danstorm]

Just now, weathermedic said:

.04 at my station so far. Doesn't look like much else (if anything) for the rest of the night.

What a BUST! The bustiest bust in a string of them.

[Juliancolton]

Around a quarter inch here. Meaningless precip.