October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[NJwx85]

Up to 1.71"

[snow1]

Currently no winds right now. 

[jm1220]

Pretty calm in Long Beach and light rain. Maybe this wind won’t be a big deal. 

[Rtd208]

Looks like a really heavy band of rain about to move into the metro area from off the ocean, that should really boost up some rainfall numbers.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty calm in Long Beach and light rain. Maybe this wind won’t be a big deal. 

Really think the CAA behind the system is where our winds will come from. 

The fact that it's so calm now means a lot of this stuff aloft isn't coming down. There's good bust potential on winds as there usually is. 

[NortheastPAWx]

At 1.51". That band looks to mean business.

I thought the big winds were to be overnight anyway.

[SleetStormNJ]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Really think the CAA behind the system is where our winds will come from. 

The fact that it's so calm now means a lot of this stuff aloft isn't coming down. There's good bust potential on winds as there usually is. 

Any wind potential was always overnight.  The actual center/low is still pretty far away.  Any strong winds are bad news considering how saturated the ground will be.

[dmillz25]

2.50" and a **** ton more incoming.

[EasternLI]

I'll take the under on 65-70 kt gusts, but we'll see.

 

[Santa Claus]

43 minutes ago, snow1 said:

Barely any wind though in pway

Transformer just popped somewhere.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, SleetStormNJ said:

Any wind potential was always overnight.  The actual center/low is still pretty far away.  Any strong winds are bad news considering how saturated the ground will be.

It's just off the Delmarva sub 990 mb. I think strongest gusts could be 55-60 but 45-50 most likely. So far this storm reminds me of the April 2007 nor'easter with a lot less rain. 

[mob1]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's just off the Delmarva sub 990 mb. I think strongest gusts could be 55-60 but 45-50 most likely. So far this storm reminds me of the April 2007 nor'easter with a lot less rain. 

You're jumping the gun here a bit, winds are not expected for another 3-4 hours. See HRRR initiation vs hour 5, winds will come big time for LI (other areas are still up ih the air for now)

[sussexcountyobs]

Zzzzzzz. Rain. No wind. Blah, in Sussex County. So far.

[SnoSki14]

If winds are still calm or light by midnight then those higher gusts probably won't verify. 

This is a very beneficial storm too, it's giving us enough rains to avoid any drought concerns but not enough to cause significant flooding. 

[Juliancolton]

Absolutely chucking it down here at the moment. Somewhere over 2" in the bucket

[mob1]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

If winds are still calm or light by midnight then those higher gusts probably won't verify. 

Definitely, but I'm fairly confident winds will be rocking by midnight (I'm talking about LI, I honestly don't know what will happen in my area)

[Spanks45]

I am at 3.06" in the Davis so far, pressure is down to 996.5 and dropping like a rock....

[SACRUS]

[sussexcountyobs]

So far, basically non event here in NE Sussex County, NJ.  Some rain. About 1". No wind to speak of. At least for my area, I call over hyped BS.

[BxEngine]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

So far, basically non event here in NE Sussex County, NJ.  Some rain. About 1". No wind to speak of. At least for my area, I call over hyped BS.

Ok. Thanks. 

[NycStormChaser]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

So far, basically non event here in NE Sussex County, NJ.  Some rain. About 1". No wind to speak of. At least for my area, I call over hyped BS.

Oh boy. Reminds me of the silly post calling a bust during a snow storm before it is even over yet.

[psv88]

ONE HOUR TO GO FOR LONG ISLAND

 

 

[jm1220]

Wind picking up here and heavier rain. 

[USCG RS]

LGA had a gust to 32 mph in the last hour and JFK gusting to 30 mph; so its not like smokes rising vertically...

The buoy out at the Hudson Canyon saw a wind gust to 40 mph.

Blink blink. But what about the busts that are verifying before the storm starts?

[donsutherland1]

At 7:40 pm, my barometer was at 29.35" (994.0 mb). The barometer has begun to fall at a somewhat faster rate over the past few hours. It's raining lightly to moderately, but things should pick up a little later this evening. 

[Fantom X]

nice to see the rain perform so far as expected and not under-produce like recent events

[Joe4alb]

Nooow it's raining the good rain. Still not much in the way of wind though (East End)

 

[dmillz25]

Up to 2.71" for the event

[Juliancolton]

Dousing to torrential rain to continue for the next few hours, but the mid levels are shortly going to start drying out. This thing is haulin'.

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, Dakota said:

The odds of a sub-29.00 inch non-tropical cyclone rapidly moving northward into the New York Bight producing "light winds" over the area are nil.   It would be a physical & mathematical impossibility.

I never said they'd be light, just not as high as some models showed.