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October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted

Upton mentioned @forkyfork's and @bluewave 's sting jet possibility in their adf.

 

  

A period of intense winds is expected tonight. The western
extent of damaging winds is still very difficult to pin down, as
weather forecast models still differ on the position of the low
with the GFS east/weaker and coming ashore on central Long
Island by 03Z Mon, the ECMWF stronger and inland near far NW NJ
by that time, and the NAM near NYC, with an 85-kt LLJ at 925 mb.
The GEFS mean position closer to the NAM still looks reasonable.
Because of these differences, decided to keep the high wind
watch in effect for NYC metro and extended up into most of the
Lower Hudson Valley, while converting to warnings for all of
Long Island and Southern Connecticut.

As for forcing mechanisms bringing damaging winds to the surface,
the NAM forecasts a low level inversion, but other factors such
precip drag, destabilization via a dry slot arriving at the same
time as the low level jet, and possible ducted gravity waves
generated by what appears to be a very unbalanced upper jet aloft,
could all work to transfer significant momentum to the surface.
Meanwhile, the GFS shows a mixed layer up to 925 mb, which suggests
that downward momentum transfer could be relatively uninhibited. As
a result, have forecast strongest winds to be mainly 60-65 mph, but
have mentioned the possibility of 75-mph gusts along the coast.

The low level jet should pull away later tonight, but then a very
tight pressure gradient on the back side of the departing low should
generate winds at least to 45-55 mph on Monday. May have to watch
for development of a sting jet the could produce stronger winds
after a very strong mid level vort max and the precip comma head of
the storm swing across.

After some morning rain showers with the upper low moving
across the area, skies will clear with a return to more
seasonable temperatures.
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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

All they did was reissue the HWW 

NJZ006-104-NYZ068>075-176-178-292200-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.A.0001.171029T2200Z-171030T1000Z/
Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
1201 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* Winds...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.
  Stronger wind gusts up to 65 mph may be possible.

* Timing...Tonight. Strong winds may continue into Monday as
  winds shift west.

* Impacts...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.
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mob1

mob1

Posted
Posted

HRRR and RAP are now really far west (and we're getting to the point where they can be used) I honestly don't know what to think, my area in Brooklyn can see anywhere between 40 to 60 mile an hour gusts based on models, a pretty big spread for being just a few hours away.

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