October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[stockmanjr]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Upton seems to be waiting til the last minute to upgrade any high wind watches or issue  wind advisories

Very surprised they haven't taken action as well. Would have thought they would have done something by now...

[Rtd208]

The radar is really starting to light up now just to our south with more heavy echoes being detected. The heaviest rain will be this afternoon into this evening with the winds picking up as we go through the afternoon into the overnight hours.

[forkyfork]

the nam finally caved

[SnoSki14]

And gfs continues to move towards the Euro, stronger & further west.

[Yanksfan]

That dry slot didn't last very long. Moderate to heavy rains moving in now. Wouldn't want to be at the Jets game today with all those wet and miserable fans.

[NJwx85]

0.20" so far here. Radar looking very impressive.

[Rjay]

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

And gfs continues to move towards the Euro, stronger & further west.

The gfs caved about as far as the gfs will prob cave.  I don't think it's going to show what the euro/nam are showing. 

[SnoSki14]

The storm may deepen 30 mbs in about 12-18 hrs, that's a bomb. 

[forkyfork]

39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Upton seems to be waiting til the last minute to upgrade any high wind watches or issue  wind advisories

the 12km nam brings hww criteria winds to our area

[Rjay]

Upton mentioned @forkyfork's and @bluewave 's sting jet possibility in their adf.

 

 

A period of intense winds is expected tonight. The western
extent of damaging winds is still very difficult to pin down, as
weather forecast models still differ on the position of the low
with the GFS east/weaker and coming ashore on central Long
Island by 03Z Mon, the ECMWF stronger and inland near far NW NJ
by that time, and the NAM near NYC, with an 85-kt LLJ at 925 mb.
The GEFS mean position closer to the NAM still looks reasonable.
Because of these differences, decided to keep the high wind
watch in effect for NYC metro and extended up into most of the
Lower Hudson Valley, while converting to warnings for all of
Long Island and Southern Connecticut.

As for forcing mechanisms bringing damaging winds to the surface,
the NAM forecasts a low level inversion, but other factors such
precip drag, destabilization via a dry slot arriving at the same
time as the low level jet, and possible ducted gravity waves
generated by what appears to be a very unbalanced upper jet aloft,
could all work to transfer significant momentum to the surface.
Meanwhile, the GFS shows a mixed layer up to 925 mb, which suggests
that downward momentum transfer could be relatively uninhibited. As
a result, have forecast strongest winds to be mainly 60-65 mph, but
have mentioned the possibility of 75-mph gusts along the coast.

The low level jet should pull away later tonight, but then a very
tight pressure gradient on the back side of the departing low should
generate winds at least to 45-55 mph on Monday. May have to watch
for development of a sting jet the could produce stronger winds
after a very strong mid level vort max and the precip comma head of
the storm swing across.

After some morning rain showers with the upper low moving
across the area, skies will clear with a return to more
seasonable temperatures.

[Drz1111]

It's not a textbook sting set up.  More of a hybrid CCB / sting.  There's learning on this from European mets, this sort of storm is much more common over there.

[Stormlover74]

All they did was reissue the HWW

NJZ006-104-NYZ068>075-176-178-292200-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.A.0001.171029T2200Z-171030T1000Z/
Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
1201 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* Winds...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.
  Stronger wind gusts up to 65 mph may be possible.

* Timing...Tonight. Strong winds may continue into Monday as
  winds shift west.

* Impacts...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[mob1]

HRRR and RAP are now really far west (and we're getting to the point where they can be used) I honestly don't know what to think, my area in Brooklyn can see anywhere between 40 to 60 mile an hour gusts based on models, a pretty big spread for being just a few hours away.

[bluewave]

12z NAM takes the LLJ at 925 MB down to -6 SD.

 

[tdp146]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

12z NAM takes the LLJ at 925 MB down to -6 SD.

 

I believe March 2010 verified -6SD. 

[dmillz25]

Pouring here now. Up to 0.31"

[Rtd208]

Up to 0.33" of rain so far today, plenty more to come.

[Rjay]

I know it's basically game time but the Ukie is into Delaware then up through NJ just west of NYC at 969mb.

 

Drops 15mb in 6 hours from Delaware coast to just west of NYC

[stockmanjr]

Flood Advisory for NYC/NENJ/LI till 3pm.

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

I know it's basically game time but the Ukie is into Delaware then up through NJ just west of NYC at 969mb.

 

Drops 15mb in 6 hours from Delaware coast to just west of NYC

 Wow. Things should really get going over the next few hours. 

[MJO812]

12z Ukie dropping the hammer

[SnoSki14]

I shutter to think what the Euro will show, I assume something similar to the Ukmet but a bit further west.

[donsutherland1]

Very heavy rain is falling in parts of southern Westchester County. The wind is still fairly light.

[Joe4alb]

very little rain here on the East End so far. Around .15 bit breezy, thats about all to this point.

[Rtd208]

Looks like alot of rain developing to our south now poised to move up through the area this afternoon and evening.

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I shutter to think what the Euro will show, I assume something similar to the Ukmet but a bit further west.

Here's the sustained winds in knots (at the bottom) for NYC on the Ukie

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Here's the sustained winds in knots (at the bottom) for NYC on the Ukie

That's about 35 sustained for NYC, probably significantly more for coastal areas.

[stockmanjr]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

That's about 35 sustained for NYC, probably significantly more for coastal areas.

Just a few more MPH sustained and we would have some issues for parts of the NYC subway as they need to suspend service on elevated sections when winds are 39mph+

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

That's about 35 sustained for NYC, probably significantly more for coastal areas.

Yep. That's the highest I've seen at NYC since we started tracking this puppy.