October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[Sportybx]

Worst case scenario.  What are we looking at for waves ,  flooding ect

[Voyager]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

0.88 already

Major dry slot here. Only 0.11" so far...lol

[Hoth]

Some members in the low 950s on the Euro ensembles. That is really exceptional. Probably haven't seen that on an ensemble since another storm on this date.

[BxEngine]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

0.88 already

Yeah ground is pretty well saturated at this point. 

[BxEngine]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam has damaging winds tonight for the area. Finally on board .

Those are 850 winds. 

[Rtd208]

Not much rain here yet, only 0.03" so far but looks like plenty of it coming up from the south. Things should start getting wild around here by early/mid afternoon.

[Rjay]

13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam has damaging winds tonight for the area. Finally on board .

Post 925mb winds.  I'm not available.  Thanks in advance. 

[ag3]

7 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Those are 850 winds. 

 

[Sportybx]

Why is it no one is talking about this . All they keep saying is rain . No wind no nothing just rain . 

[Juliancolton]

9 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Those are 850 winds. 

Yeah I don't get why people post 850mb winds without any other context. It's like looking at PWATs and nothing else to forecast high rainfall totals.

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Those are 850 winds. 

 

1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah I don't get why people post 850mb winds without any other context. It's like looking at PWATs and nothing else to forecast high rainfall totals.

That's 120 mph winds at 850, with good convection at least 50% should mix down...and that's sustained winds, not even gusts

[gravitylover]

.4" so far with no wind at all. Not looking forward to big wind overnight, too many big old weak trees around my house.

[BxEngine]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

 

That's 120 mph winds at 850, with good convection at least 50% should mix down...and that's sustained winds, not even gusts

Sure, some people understand that. Others dont.

[bluewave]

The NAM is also showing the second wind maxima over Eastern LI and SE NE that the 0z Euro started hinting at. It's a couple of hours after the maxima for our area. 

 

 

 

 

[Juliancolton]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

 

That's 120 mph winds at 850, with good convection at least 50% should mix down...and that's sustained winds, not even gusts

Seems more like #prettycolors in most cases.

[jm1220]

Really comes down to where these mesolows/vortices spin up east of the main low. If there really aren't any, the city on east should have a round of severe winds since the low should go over NJ. Suffolk looks like a lock for these winds at this point, particularly the William Floyd on east. 

[Morris]

 

[Juliancolton]

I always love this composite product for bigly cyclogenesis events. The convection blowing right on the downstream flank of the lifting trough... good stuff.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Those are 850 winds. 

They are going to mix down

[mob1]

8 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Seems more like #prettycolors in most cases.

Sustained winds of 40 mph for coastal areas

[gravitylover]

11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I always love this composite product for bigly cyclogenesis events. The convection blowing right on the downstream flank of the lifting trough... good stuff.

That is really cool and useful. Thanks.

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

When can I expect to start feeling the winds at the eastern tip of Passaic county (wayne)? Sometime around 4 or 5 pm?

[dmillz25]

0.20" so far here 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Sustained winds of 40 mph for coastal areas

Shifted west

[Fantom X]

0.54" already and we're not even in the thick of it yet. 

63/63

[SACRUS]

[ForestHillWx]

Been in a dry slot with the rest of Northern Nj. Eerily calm outside. Light drizzle. 

[Voyager]

10 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Been in a dry slot with the rest of Northern Nj. Eerily calm outside. Light drizzle. 

Same over here. Picked up another 0.01" since I last posted.

[Stormlover74]

Upton seems to be waiting til the last minute to upgrade any high wind watches or issue  wind advisories

[SleetStormNJ]

Light to moderate rain now.  Becoming more steady here.

Looks like a stormy day and night are ahead of us.