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October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations


bluewave

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We have been discussing the problems the GFS has been having with tropical interactions and systems since the upgrade.

 

There are some difference amongst the models in the westward
extent of the low track, with the 00Z GFS to the right of the
NAM and ECMWF. Model consensus and the GFS ensemble supports a
track similar to the more westward solutions and  will lean
toward the NAM with this run. Additionally, looking upstream
across Florida, the GFS seems to have had problems initializing
with multiple areas of low pressure north of Tropical Storm
Philippe.
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4 hours ago, Rjay said:

You can see the difference in the handling of the tropical storm from last night's run but it doesn't seem to make much of a difference in our sensible weather.

24260f6e-3794-4816-b9cd-c4423e909800.gif

Model is really struggling, your not bombing a low to our west without Philippe, it's been terrible with it's handling of it so far

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5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Model is really struggling, your not bombing a low to our west without Philippe, it's been terrible with it's handling of it so far

Just out of curiosity, what is your call for the area (I guess inland NY and NJ, NYC and Jersey coast, and LI/CT would be a good way to break it down) 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Interesting. I didn't see any on ltg detection recently. Thunder away.

When it was further south over the south shore i noticed it on radarscope, but it weakened as it crossed the island it seems. Wasnt much to begin with. 

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NYC is on the line. If the low swings in near the city, the strongest winds are in LI. In fact, could be a big difference in wind from EWR-JFK. I don't think damaging winds (60+) in NYC is a lock...but obviously some models show this. The HRRR sort of shows what I mean. 

HRRR is ridiculous, NYC rides the line like you pointed out, but it has 70 MPH sustained winds for parts of LI (obviously overdone). Before anyone freaks out, it shows solid winds for our area betore this frame, and looks to be setting up for some crazy backside winds. 

hrrr_mslp_wind_neus_18 (1).png

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Just now, mob1 said:

HRRR is ridiculous, NYC rides the line like you pointed out, but it has 70 MPH sustained winds for parts of LI (obviously overdone). Before anyone freaks out, it shows solid winds for our area betore this frame, and looks to be setting up for some crazy backside winds. 

hrrr_mslp_wind_neus_18 (1).png

Follow the evoluton. it swings a low up into the area and hence those winds. Verbatim, that makes sense.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Follow the evoluton. it swings a low up into the area and hence those winds. Verbatim, that makes sense.

The evolution is fine, the severity of the winds is what I have trouble wrapping my head around. I understand that this is a VERY anomalous event, but verbatim that's probably over 100 MPH in gusts. 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

This is as impressive as it gets for the HRRR.

 

hrrr_gust_nyc_18.thumb.png.65099caff8584782a999076fc2d771fb.png

 

Insane, that's an area of 90-95 MPH gusts on the south shore. I think people are underplaying the storm, some ASOS site in LI or SNE will officially record an 80 MPH gust IMO. 

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Very strong for LI but not that much for everyone else. This shows a boat load of rain though.


Thank you. I cleared out most of my leaves yesterday (don’t forget to clear our sewers and storm drains!); but the amount of rain combined with 40 mph winds concerns me regarding trees coming down.


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