mob1 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, CIK62 said: GFS LAMP for JFK has max. gusts 36mph. near 8PM. Crazy, most models have higher sustained winds than that at JFK. Here's the latest HRRR, not exactly the best at this range but let's see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Bright flashes and loud thunder coming from east of here. It’s been over a month since my last thunderstorm, hope we get more today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 We have been discussing the problems the GFS has been having with tropical interactions and systems since the upgrade. There are some difference amongst the models in the westward extent of the low track, with the 00Z GFS to the right of the NAM and ECMWF. Model consensus and the GFS ensemble supports a track similar to the more westward solutions and will lean toward the NAM with this run. Additionally, looking upstream across Florida, the GFS seems to have had problems initializing with multiple areas of low pressure north of Tropical Storm Philippe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: wow I would bet another historic bust for the Euro, it's lost in this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 hours ago, Rjay said: You can see the difference in the handling of the tropical storm from last night's run but it doesn't seem to make much of a difference in our sensible weather. Model is really struggling, your not bombing a low to our west without Philippe, it's been terrible with it's handling of it so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Model is really struggling, your not bombing a low to our west without Philippe, it's been terrible with it's handling of it so far Just out of curiosity, what is your call for the area (I guess inland NY and NJ, NYC and Jersey coast, and LI/CT would be a good way to break it down) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, mob1 said: Just out of curiosity, what is your call for the area (I guess inland NY and NJ, NYC and Jersey coast, and LI/CT would be a good way to break it down) 30 to 35 sustained and gusts to low 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 19 minutes ago, Cfa said: Bright flashes and loud thunder coming from east of here. It’s been over a month since my last thunderstorm, hope we get more today. I see no evidence of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I see no evidence of this. Storm near Glen Cove had lightning earlier, seems to have let up recently though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: Storm near Glen Cove had lightning earlier, seems to have let up recently though. Interesting. I didn't see any on ltg detection recently. Thunder away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Post evidence of your assertions. "Well documented" things should be easy to, well, document here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Interesting. I didn't see any on ltg detection recently. Thunder away. When it was further south over the south shore i noticed it on radarscope, but it weakened as it crossed the island it seems. Wasnt much to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, BxEngine said: When it was further south over the south shore i noticed it on radarscope, but it weakened as it crossed the island it seems. Wasnt much to begin with. Only thing i could find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 30 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 30 to 35 sustained and gusts to low 50s Going down with the ship I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Going down with the ship I see Admirable 'sticktoitiveness' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 NYC is on the line. If the low swings in near the city, the strongest winds are in LI. In fact, could be a big difference in wind from EWR-JFK. I don't think damaging winds (60+) in NYC is a lock...but obviously some models show this. The HRRR sort of shows what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Going down with the ship I see Long island will see higher gusts but otherwise its not a terrible call. Thats not the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 0.32 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Long island will see higher gusts but otherwise its not a terrible call. Thats not the issue. I strongly feel that EWR will gust over 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NYC is on the line. If the low swings in near the city, the strongest winds are in LI. In fact, could be a big difference in wind from EWR-JFK. I don't think damaging winds (60+) in NYC is a lock...but obviously some models show this. The HRRR sort of shows what I mean. HRRR is ridiculous, NYC rides the line like you pointed out, but it has 70 MPH sustained winds for parts of LI (obviously overdone). Before anyone freaks out, it shows solid winds for our area betore this frame, and looks to be setting up for some crazy backside winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, mob1 said: HRRR is ridiculous, NYC rides the line like you pointed out, but it has 70 MPH sustained winds for parts of LI (obviously overdone). Before anyone freaks out, it shows solid winds for our area betore this frame, and looks to be setting up for some crazy backside winds. Follow the evoluton. it swings a low up into the area and hence those winds. Verbatim, that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Follow the evoluton. it swings a low up into the area and hence those winds. Verbatim, that makes sense. The evolution is fine, the severity of the winds is what I have trouble wrapping my head around. I understand that this is a VERY anomalous event, but verbatim that's probably over 100 MPH in gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: This is as impressive as it gets for the HRRR. Insane, that's an area of 90-95 MPH gusts on the south shore. I think people are underplaying the storm, some ASOS site in LI or SNE will officially record an 80 MPH gust IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 6z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 6z RGEMHow do the winds look for MMU?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, North and West said: How do the winds look for MMU? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Very strong for LI but not that much for everyone else. This shows a boat load of rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Very strong for LI but not that much for everyone else. This shows a boat load of rain though.Thank you. I cleared out most of my leaves yesterday (don’t forget to clear our sewers and storm drains!); but the amount of rain combined with 40 mph winds concerns me regarding trees coming down. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Convection explosion east of FLA on Intellicast satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Nam has damaging winds tonight for the area. Finally on board . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 0.88 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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