October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[Rjay]

Euro looks similar 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

wow

Strengthens to 973 mb as it heads into NEPA

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Euro is very strong at this point and pretty far west,  I can't seen the in between panels so I'm not sure when it goes from here 

Hellacious. That's about all I need to see to think it's another very damaging run for NYC east. 

If there's literally a 979 over Ocean City tomorrow, it's literally lights out for most on Long Island and coastal CT, and probably even a good chunk of NYC. 

[mob1]

Winds are unreal this run, wow! 

[Rtd208]

Wow at the Euro, tomorrow (today) afternoon into the evening hours is going to get really interesting around here. Euro has been locked in solid, I see no reason to doubt it.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Euro looks similar 

I guess the Euro went back to reality with only 80 or so mph gusts for NYC on east.

I have to think Upton goes to high wind warnings from the City on east given the Euro's insistence on this track and outcome. We'd be in trouble down here with this run. 

[tmagan]

It also has 122 mph wind gusts for Cape Cod, something is wrong.

[Rtd208]

Mt.Holly better get it in gear with their morning update, they seem a bit behind.

[dmillz25]

The Euro has been scary consistent. Damn this isn't good

[SnoSki14]

Wow at the Euro, it has been solid thus far.

[mob1]

Rap at 05Z looks pretty similar to the Euro, but it's not exactly the most reliable model 

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, tmagan said:

It also has 122 mph wind gusts for Cape Cod, something is wrong.

Lol

[mob1]

HRRR looks similar as well. One thing I noticed in the Euro and latest short term guidance, is that there can possibly be two areas of maximum winds and the tropical storm doesn't need to be fully absorbed for us to get smoked. Strength and placement will be key. 

[Rjay]

23 minutes ago, tmagan said:

It also has 122 mph wind gusts for Cape Cod, something is wrong.

30-45 mph sustained winds gusting well over 100 mph ....yea I'd say something is wrong....

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

HRRR looks similar as well. One thing I noticed in the Euro and latest short term guidance, is that there can possibly be two areas of maximum winds and the tropical storm doesn't need to be fully absorbed for us to get smoked. Strength and placement will be key. 

It comes to where the consolidated surface low tracks-if it goes west of you, there'll be a period of powerful winds. The Euro is probably overdone, but I'd think it would have to be enough for widespread power outages. Those winds being out of the south has to make me think areas down here on the south shore experience some serious coastal flooding too, ad beach erosion. 

[mob1]

Euro wind maps are definitely off. HRRR has some strong sustained winds working its way north tomorrow evening, so assuming it strengthens from there you can probably extrapolate 60 MPH gusts rather easily for coastal areas. 

[Rjay]

Euro has the tropical storm in the 980s as a 970s low crashes into Del/SNJ.  Such an interesting set up. 

[Rjay]

You can see the difference in the handling of the tropical storm from last night's run but it doesn't seem to make much of a difference in our sensible weather.

[mob1]

17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

30-45 mph sustained winds gusting well over 100 mph ....yea I'd say something is wrong....

I checked for our area, and it has sustained surface winds of over 40 MPH when it shows the 70 MPH+ gusts for LI, so that actually makes sense. 

[Rjay]

13 minutes ago, mob1 said:

I checked for our area, and it has sustained surface winds of over 40 MPH when it shows the 70 MPH+ gusts for LI, so that actually makes sense. 

Was talking about the Cape 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Hellacious. That's about all I need to see to think it's another very damaging run for NYC east. 

If there's literally a 979 over Ocean City tomorrow, it's literally lights out for most on Long Island and coastal CT, and probably even a good chunk of NYC. 

Good luck later today 

[Rjay]

Currently light rain and winds are a bit gusty.  Tomorrow (later today) should be wild.  

Edit:  EPS matches the OP.  

[Rtd208]

Mt.Holly finally wakes up, Wind Advisory in affect for Monday morning, Flood Watches have been expanded starting at noon today.

[Rtd208]

I am kind of surprised the Wind Advisory from Mt.Holly only covers a 6 hour period on Monday morning, saying wind gusts to 55 mph.

[weathermedic]

High wind warning expanded to include Nassau County.

[Snowlover11]

First drops here in white plains.

 

0.03”

[MJO812]

6z gfs started it's west move towards the Euro

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Good to see the NWS highlighting the potential for 75 mph gusts near the coast on Long Island with widespread power outages. You just can't go against the Euro especially in October when a tropical interaction with the midlatitude is occurring. We saw this with Sandy, Joaquin and now this event. 

And yet some weather pages think this is a normal noreaster and actually throwing out the Euro.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z gfs started it's west move towards the Euro

Textbook playing catch-up with the Euro/Ukie.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

[CIK62]

GFS LAMP for JFK has max. gusts 36mph. near 8PM.