October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

GFS also shows weak surface based instability over twin forks, with clear potential to mix down near-hurricane force gusts.

GFS is still lost

[Drz1111]

Am I right that the 0Z so far is:

 

NAM - sandy hook

RGEM - LBI

GFS - Islip

 

thats actually not bad consensus.  And all show an intensifying low as it comes on shore.

[Drz1111]

GFS actually looks Shapiro-Keyser-esque.  Bent-back warm front with a warm seclusion, but not much of a temperature gradient in immediate vicinity of the center.

[MJO812]

CMC

 

[danstorm]

3 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Am I right that the 0Z so far is:

 

NAM - sandy hook

RGEM - LBI

GFS - Islip

 

thats actually not bad consensus.  And all show an intensifying low as it comes on shore.

I can't tell if sarcastic? That's horrible consensus this close to the event!

Clearly one model is an outlier...

[Drz1111]

1 minute ago, danstorm said:

I can't tell if sarcastic? That's horrible consensus this close to the event!

Clearly one model is an outlier...

I don’t think it’s that bad.  That’s about 80 miles of delta but it just looks bad because the angle of approach is near-parallel to jersey shore.  And it’s a highly anomalous set up, so you’d expect more error.

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, danstorm said:

I can't tell if sarcastic? That's horrible consensus this close to the event!

Clearly one model is an outlier...

it's going to come down to radar watching a few hours before landfall 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, danstorm said:

I can't tell if sarcastic? That's horrible consensus this close to the event!

Clearly one model is an outlier...

And we know which model that will be

[MJO812]

About 4 inches of rain on the CMC for the area

[AbsoluteVorticity]

7 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

I don’t think it’s that bad.  That’s about 80 miles of delta but it just looks bad because the angle of approach is near-parallel to jersey shore.  And it’s a highly anomalous set up, so you’d expect more error.

It's a bad consensus this close to the event..

 

 

 

[snow1]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

About 4 inches of rain on the CMC for the area

Any wind?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snow1 said:

Any wind?

Not as strong as the Euro

[snow1]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Not as strong as the Euro

Looks like the cmc is in the gfs camp 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snow1 said:

Looks like the cmc is in the gfs camp 

CMC is further west and wetter

[SnoSki14]

Really amazed how Mt. Holly is downplaying this, my county has zero watches or warnings. You'd think a rapidly intensifying hybrid low would be worth more than that.

Does the public have any idea this storm is even happening?

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

CMC is further west and wetter

How strong are the winds...mph please 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

How strong are the winds...mph please 

Meh not that strong but the 850 winds are strong. We have to see how much of that comes down.

[NortheastPAWx]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Really amazed how Mt. Holly is downplaying this, my county has zero watches or warnings. You'd think a rapidly intensifying hybrid low would be worth more than that.

Does the public have any idea this storm is even happening?

It really seems like there's been a lot of public silence on this storm. Don't get it.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

It really seems like there's been a lot of public silence on this storm. Don't get it.

It's a bit baffling and it's the 5 year anniversary of Sandy. People better hope the Euro/EPS is wrong otherwise they're in for a rude awakening. 

[snow1]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a bit baffling and it's the 5 year anniversary of Sandy. People better hope the Euro/EPS is wrong otherwise they're in for a rude awakening. 

The good thing is no other model is close to the euro which means there’s a chance it is wrong. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snow1 said:

The good thing is no other model is close to the euro which means there’s a chance it is wrong. 

This is not true

Ukie continues to be like the Euro

 

[Rjay]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

How strong are the winds...mph please 

None of the sites I use have enough detail on the GEM.  WB shows sustained winds of 20 mph (western LI) and 50 mph (eastern LI).  I dont have 900mb or 925 mb winds and there's no wind gust product.  Tropical tidbits shows 850mb winds of 60 kt or more from NYC on east but that won't fully mix down.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

None of the sites I use have enough detail on the GEM.  WB shows sustained winds of 20 mph (western LI) and 50 mph (eastern LI).  I dont have 900mb or 925 mb winds and there's no wind gust product.  Tropical tidbits shows 850mb winds of 60 kt or more from NYC on east but that won't mix down.

It will most likely mix down in heavier bands

[Rjay]

Ukie is def in the Euro camp re: track

[MJO812]

0z gefs is in the Euro camp

The op was an outlier

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Bombing lows tend to arch towards the NW and in this case we have a bombing low with a strong negativily tilted trough.

The Ukmet and Euro are also two of the best models we have, I'd be surprised if this ended up like the 0z gfs op run. 

[Rtd208]

From the New England thread.

[jm1220]

A GGEM like solution would probably be best for me. Decent winds but nothing damaging, and 4" of rain to end the Long Island dry spell. 

I have to think the Euro is overamped and extreme, but I guess I'll find out soon enough...

[forkyfork]

wow

[mob1]

Euro is very strong at this point and pretty far west,  I can't seen the in between panels so I'm not sure when it goes from here