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October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations


bluewave

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3 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Am I right that the 0Z so far is:

 

NAM - sandy hook

RGEM - LBI

GFS - Islip

 

thats actually not bad consensus.  And all show an intensifying low as it comes on shore.

I can't tell if sarcastic? That's horrible consensus this close to the event!

Clearly one model is an outlier...

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1 minute ago, danstorm said:

I can't tell if sarcastic? That's horrible consensus this close to the event!

Clearly one model is an outlier...

I don’t think it’s that bad.  That’s about 80 miles of delta but it just looks bad because the angle of approach is near-parallel to jersey shore.  And it’s a highly anomalous set up, so you’d expect more error.

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Really amazed how Mt. Holly is downplaying this, my county has zero watches or warnings. You'd think a rapidly intensifying hybrid low would be worth more than that.

Does the public have any idea this storm is even happening?

It really seems like there's been a lot of public silence on this storm. Don't get it.

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a bit baffling and it's the 5 year anniversary of Sandy. People better hope the Euro/EPS is wrong otherwise they're in for a rude awakening. 

The good thing is no other model is close to the euro which means there’s a chance it is wrong. 

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18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

How strong are the winds...mph please 

None of the sites I use have enough detail on the GEM.  WB shows sustained winds of 20 mph (western LI) and 50 mph (eastern LI).  I dont have 900mb or 925 mb winds and there's no wind gust product.  Tropical tidbits shows 850mb winds of 60 kt or more from NYC on east but that won't fully mix down.

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

None of the sites I use have enough detail on the GEM.  WB shows sustained winds of 20 mph (western LI) and 50 mph (eastern LI).  I dont have 900mb or 925 mb winds and there's no wind gust product.  Tropical tidbits shows 850mb winds of 60 kt or more from NYC on east but that won't mix down.

It will most likely mix down in heavier bands

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