October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[Stormlover74]

Most of the models had a strong line moving through late this morning but it doesn't look too promising

[NJwx85]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Most of the models had a strong line moving through late this morning but it doesn't look too promising

Looks like most of that is currently located in Eastern PA. The HRRR has several lines developing throughout the day as everything slowly slides North and East. Like I said yesterday, don't expect widespread activity, but rather periods of heavier squalls.

[Drz1111]

Weird decision by SPC to downgrade the area from slight to marginal given sat trends towards increasing sun and possible destabilization, but I'm just a schlub and they're the best in the biz, so what do I know.

[Stormlover74]

38 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like most of that is currently located in Eastern PA. The HRRR has several lines developing throughout the day as everything slowly slides North and East. Like I said yesterday, don't expect widespread activity, but rather periods of heavier squalls.

Yeah but I'm not even sure we'll see those heavier squalls. Just scattered shower activity. Everything ramps up over LI later

It does look some heavier stuff near Delaware might swing through in a few hours

[forkyfork]

the lack of morning activity might allow enough cape to build in time for western areas to cash in

[Brian5671]

NAM still shows heavy rains later on for many

[psv88]

Wicked wind out here. Halloween decorations blew out of the tree. My three year old was not pleased.

[Drz1111]

Hmmm.

[Drz1111]

HMMM.

[NJwx85]

Looks like Central and Northern NJ will be the highest risk area for convection this afternoon as a few hundred J/KG of SBCAPE has developed over the region.

[jm1220]

The sunny breaks make me think there’s definitely potential for severe weather later. Plenty of instability, humidity and shear to tap. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah but I'm not even sure we'll see those heavier squalls. Just scattered shower activity. Everything ramps up over LI later

It does look some heavier stuff near Delaware might swing through in a few hours

This looks decent for some

[NJwx85]

That line of convection in Western NJ is running right along the axis of greatest instability and shear.

[etudiant]

Nothing much has materialized thus far in Manhattan and the forecasts are being revised down hourly. The models clearly have a hard time with these systems.

[JerseyWx]

27 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That line of convection in Western NJ is running right along the axis of greatest instability and shear.

Man it's been awhile since we tracked convection.  It's the end of October lol.

[Stormlover74]

Radar looks good for central/northern NJ and maybe parts of the city

[Drz1111]

The kink in the line near Morristown is interesting, and rocketing north into the LHV.

[ForestHillWx]

Pounding rain, with some wind outside my office window in Parsippany, NJ.

 

Still pouring...at least 1.25"

[NJwx85]

Power line came down along Rt 17 in Mahwah (Near MacArthur Blvd)

I currently have no power at my house and most of that half of Mahwah is currently without power.

[NJwx85]

Managed to miss the rain here, but the gusty winds continue.

[forkyfork]

.23" in springfield. 1+ a few miles to the west 

[qg_omega]

line falling apart now as it approaches the marine influence 

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

line falling apart now as it approaches the marine influence 

The marine influence today is limited to Eastern Long Island.

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models always struggle with dry slot type situations.

 

if this busts like it now looks, every model will have failed...most had 1-2 inches and some were 3-4.

[psv88]

Winds gusting to 39 at islip. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

if this busts like it now looks, every model will have failed...most had 1-2 inches and some were 3-4.

When are you going to learn that in convective setups like today you're never going to see widespread heavy totals?

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

When are you going to learn that in convective setups like today you're never going to see widespread heavy totals?

mesoscale models like the Nam, RGEM had a narrow, but steady swath of 1-3 inches rain just east of NYC for days....one would expect those models to have a clue.  I can see a global not seeing it.

[hudsonvalley21]

Lost power here in New Windsor, NY (orange county). A few rumbles of thunder. 

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

mesoscale models like the Nam, RGEM had a narrow, but steady swath of 1-3 inches rain just east of NYC for days....one would expect those models to have a clue.  I can see a global not seeing it.

Like Forky said yesterday, it's impossible for models to know exactly where the training was going to setup. QPF is the least useful and least accurate tool in modeling. They are useful for figuring out the biggest threat areas, and they did a good job of focusing on NJ for the first batch and Long Island for the second.

[danstorm]

This appears to be the latest in a string of major underperformers - by major, I mean like at or below the 10th percentile outcome for the majority of the area.

Of course, this event is not over, but I wouldn't be shocked if the latest band passing through my section of NJ was more or less all she wrote.