October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Was just going to post that huge shift west from 18z

[Rtd208]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Every other model turns it back into some portion of New Jersey. It's the lone hold out.

 

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The public thinks this will be a regular rainstorm because Mets are being conservative .

Guys, you are wasting your time. He has been doing this all day in multiple forums trying to prove his point. In other news, I am still surprised Mt.Holly hasn't expanded/upgraded or issued any new watches/warnings, I guess they are waiting for the 00z runs and will issue with the early morning update.

[Voyager]

Just now, Rtd208 said:

 

Guys, you are wasting your time. he has been doing this all day in multiple forums trying to prove his point. In other news, I am still surprised Mt.Holly hasn't expanded/upgraded or issued any new watches/warnings, I guess they are waiting for the 00z runs and will issue with the early morning update.

Same with CTP. forecasting 2-4 inches of rain, and not even a flood watch, less alone wind advisory.

[qg_omega]

Great video from Joe talking about same subject I have been harping:
 

 

[Rtd208]

Just now, Voyager said:

Same with CTP. forecasting 2-4 inches of rain, and not even a flood watch, less alone wind advisory.

What confuses me even more is that Mt.Holly did issue Flood Watches for their northern most counties in NJ above the Middlesex/Somerset/Hunterdon line. Meanwhile Upton has pretty much gone all in for most of their forecast area.

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I wish we had another model as good as the ECMWF handeling tropical energy interactions with the midlatitude pattern. It would give the NWS more confidence issuing longer range warnings. Seems like they are waiting for the last minute because they are afraid to rely on one model too much.

 

Honestly, I would expect the wait more from Upton then Mt.Holly which is usually the more aggressive office but then again I guess it depends on the crew that is working the shift. Sometimes it seems like the collaboration between offices is not that great IMHO.

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wish we had another model as good as the ECMWF with tropical energy interactions and the midlatitude pattern. It would give the NWS more confidence issuing longer range warnings. Seems like they are waiting for the last minute because they are afraid to rely on one model too much.

 

The RGEM is a higher res model with a longer range package now. If it's in line with the euro it's a good sign. Rgem did pretty well with the placement of the heaviest rain band last Sunday and is generally good handling convection

[Rtd208]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They are really overworked according to that article you posted yesterday. I believe they are trained to look for model consensus before committing to a final forecast. It's just tough for them to do with the NWP program lagging the Europeans.

I was thinking the same thing pertaining to the article, I think the issue is the GFS is considered to be the flagship model for the NWS so things are weighted more heavily towards it but I could be wrong. Not to put down or degrade the NWS in any way but I also think their entire internal operation needs to be overhauled which I know that is something currently in the works over the next few years or so. Sounds like they will be streamlining their entire operation.

[forkyfork]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wish we had another model as good as the ECMWF with tropical energy interactions and the midlatitude pattern. It would give the NWS more confidence issuing longer range warnings. Seems like they are waiting for the last minute because they are afraid to rely on one model too much.

 

the eps being west of the op is a big sign imo

[Sportybx]

All in all worst case scenario what are we looking at for the tri state area . Wave height  winds ect .. 

[Stormlover74]

[Drz1111]

Wow.  The NAM is a big hit for whole coast, NYC to Bar Harbor.

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

it's annoying how the nam looks euro like and then strings the low out after landfall. maybe this has to do with how unusual this storm is. i certainly can't think of anything else like it

[psv88]

NAM clobbers Suffolk county with hurricane force wind gusts. Good god.

[MJO812]

Those 850 winds on the Nam are insane for the area. They are definitely mixing down.

[swataz]

I have pulled no punches with the folks who ask me about this storm. It could get very ugly here tomorrow night and I think at the very least folks should prepare.

[qg_omega]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's annoying how the nam looks euro like and then strings the low out after landfall. maybe this has to do with how unusual this storm is. i certainly can't think of anything else like it

The Euro is south of cape May and then NW into the Poconos while strengthening it's an outlier.  How am I the only one seeing this

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

The Euro is south of cape May and then NW into the Poconos while strengthening it's an outlier.  How am I the only one seeing this

The Euro isn't that far south. The Nam isn't too far off from the Euro. 

EPS is in SNJ

What are you trying to prove ? You keep posting the same thing over and over again.

[Sportybx]

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

The Euro is south of cape May and then NW into the Poconos while strengthening it's an outlier.  How am I the only one seeing this

Are you cockeyed?

[Voyager]

39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wow...major PA dryslot on the NAM. Some areas struggle to hit one inch.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Wow...major PA dryslot on the NAM. Some areas struggle to hit one inch.

The placement of the low is key. Someone will get dryslotted.

[Juliancolton]

40 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's annoying how the nam looks euro like and then strings the low out after landfall. maybe this has to do with how unusual this storm is. i certainly can't think of anything else like it

The track, intensity, dual low structure, and tropical connection remind me a lot of late December '94

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

The track, intensity, dual low structure, and tropical connection remind me a lot of late December '94

my issues with that comparison are:

sst's are much warmer this time

the upper system was weaker in 94

it didn't get driven inland on a nnw heading

[MJO812]

Larry cosgrove is going with 3-6  inches with 60 + gusts for the NYC area. He said some places might hit 80 mph gusts. He also said that this will catch people offguard.

[Rtd208]

Already starting to pick up some rain developing on the radar. I think we will be raining heavily by early to mid afternoon tomorrow with winds increasing throughout the day.

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

[Juliancolton]

26 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

my issues with that comparison are:

sst's are much warmer this time

the upper system was weaker in 94

it didn't get driven inland on a nnw heading

Yeah, this is certainly a more dynamic system. Maybe I should have said trajectory or motion instead of track... even though it never made it far inland like you mention, the main low notably hooked NW prior to the merger. Storms are getting so extreme these days that you have to sort of squint your eyes and use your imagination to make analogs work.

 

[Drz1111]

Gfs comes west.  Tracks Islip to Albany, 975mb.  Going to be a sporty one tomorrow.

[Drz1111]

GFS also shows weak surface based instability over twin forks, with clear potential to mix down near-hurricane force gusts.