October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[Dan76]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Everybody on every weather board knows it's true man come on. You are the joke of these weather boards. If that's not correct, then why do you have this new username? 

 

whats the old one

[doncat]

Nam wettest thru the city...

 

[psv88]

10 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

whats the old one

Noreaster27

[jm1220]

31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I'm strongly rooting for the weaker solution, but the other models have gone towards the Euro, such as rgem, NAM, ukie, ggem, German, jma....the GFS is an outlier at the moment. 

You have busted more than anyone on any weather board, mainly because you have a history of hugging the GFS. It has burned you many times before, and it might again. 

Its literally all alone.

I’m with you on rooting for a GFS solution. We don’t need 70 or 80 mph winds here and the coastal flooding that would result, and power outages. Hopefully there can be an inversion to keep that at bay but still give us 3-4” of rain that we need. Reminds me of March 2010 which was even worse than Irene here in terms of wind and tree damage. We don’t need that whatsoever. 

[Hoth]

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Noreaster27

That explains so much.

[Santa Claus]

people are really passionate about weather forums

 

anyway we're all getting hammered tomorrow so enjoy that if it's your thing and if it's not i hope you make it through alright

[TriPol]

So does Phillippe phase and move into Jerz alla Sandy or just go OTS?

[Manny]

I’m hard pressed to think that E Long Island should see extreme winds. Is there anything higher than a high wind warning?

[qg_omega]

Need to watch SW Florida tonight to see the low follows the Euro or GFS path

[MJO812]

18z gefs is into SNJ

 

[SnoSki14]

33 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Need to watch SW Florida tonight to see the low follows the Euro or GFS path

Ok you win, the gfs will win and the storm threat is over. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ok you win, the gfs will win and the storm threat is over. 

Even the gefs disagrees with the gfs

Euro is leading the way

[forkyfork]

just a reminder

http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/

[qg_omega]

32 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

just a reminder

http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/

12z Model for Philippe, look at the EURO its a massive outlier as I have been trying to get across

[tmagan]

1 hour ago, Manny said:

I’m hard pressed to think that E Long Island should see extreme winds. Is there anything higher than a high wind warning?

Extreme wind warning -- but that is for 115 mph winds.

[Isotherm]

The key to the synoptic evolution is the extent to which Phillipe's energy is sufficiently entrained into the developing extra-tropical cyclone. The ECMWF, UKMET, and recently, mesoscale models, tend to implicate more interaction and thus much more enhancement of the mid-upper level energy. Conversely, the GFS remains more disjointed / separate with a delayed intensification of the extra-tropical cyclone. I think the significant divergence is due in part to the fact that there's a tropical element to the dynamical evolution, and the UK/Euro combination is fairly deadly, to the extent that it can accurately prognosticate projected path and concomitant dynamics. However, contemporaneously, I think most forecasters will be burned by completely discarding a major model solution within 24 hours from an event. With that being said, the UK/Euro have been much more consistent / less capricious run to run variance. I would implement a 70% / 30% weighting split (70% Euro/UK, 30% GFS) at this point. I think the center of the sfc low will probably propagate northward through the middle of New Jersey. The LLJ is very impressive and winds above 900mb are destructive; however, I think the effect of a temperature inversion will be a bit greater than anticipated as well away from the shoreline, especially. Strong convective banding will effectively transfer some potent gusts of 55+ mph on Long Island, and into SNE. I think most of NJ and inland areas will see their strongest gusts with the NWLY flow / CAA Monday morning due to better vertical mixing. At that time, I expect gusts to 50mph or possibly 55mph in NJ. This could cause scattered power outages and downed trees. I think the destructive winds capable of producing widespread outages will be over LI and SNE, but I don't foresee gusts over 65mph at this time, away from the immediate beaches/shore.

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

12z Model for Philippe, look at the EURO its a massive outlier as I have been trying to get across

That's the track the Euro has for the low forming north of Philippe. You can see the Euro below tracking Philippe well SE to the west of Bermuda like most of the other guidance.

 

 

 

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That's the track the Euro has for the low forming north of Philippe. You can see Philippe tracking well SE to the west of Bermuda.

 

 

 

Very weak, other models keep it separate and stronger that's the real difference

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Very weak, other models keep it separate and stronger that's the real difference

Lol so wait, are you admitting that what you showed isn't the euro track? 

So you are changing your reasoning now?

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Very weak, other models keep it separate and stronger that's the real difference

You're not getting a bubble of 20c 850 air without absorbing a tropical system this time of year.  That's a huge red flag to me with the Euros depection

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Lol so wait, are you admitting that what you showed isn't the euro track? 

So you are changing your reasoning now?

No not at all it's on the site I didn't build it.  Its also very sad how I get attacked by using meteorology to defend a model.  If I was defending the Euro instead of the GFS, everyone would agree.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

You're not getting a bubble of 20c 850 air without absorbing a tropical system this time of year.  That's a huge red flag to me with the Euros depection

Then why does the GFS have a similar +20C 850 mb core south of Long Island?

FC  984    -0  22.0  19.2  84  2.8  20.1 180  41 296.6 299.2 293.9 338.1 14.39
  2  950   302  20.8  18.4  86  2.4  19.1 186  58 298.2 300.8 294.1 339.3 14.13
  3  900   771  21.4  14.5  65  6.9  16.8 194  63 303.5 305.7 293.9 338.1 11.61
  4  850  1266  20.2   9.

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Then why does the GFS have a similar +20C 850 mb core south of Long Island?

FC  984    -0  22.0  19.2  84  2.8  20.1 180  41 296.6 299.2 293.9 338.1 14.39
  2  950   302  20.8  18.4  86  2.4  19.1 186  58 298.2 300.8 294.1 339.3 14.13
  3  900   771  21.4  14.5  65  6.9  16.8 194  63 303.5 305.7 293.9 338.1 11.61
  4  850  1266  20.2   9.

its not turning it into NJ, its hundreds of miles further to the NE.  Philippe will eventually get absorbed, its much easier to get it done south of NE than it is into cape may.  

[mob1]

This isn't exactly a powerhouse tropical storm right now and you can make an argument that it won't be fully tropical for long as it's already interacting with the front. I can see our area getting solid winds even if the tropical storm doesn't get fully absorbed, though the best winds were always supposed to be over eastern NE.

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

This isn't exactly a powerhouse tropical storm right now and you can make an argument that it won't be fully tropical for long as it's already interacting with the front. I can see our area getting solid winds even if the tropical storm doesn't get fully absorbed, though the best winds were always supposed to be over eastern NE.

its a much much easier forecast for eastern LI into SNE, hence they already have the high wind warning.  In the watch area its a very tough forecast and the general public has no idea about this.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

This isn't exactly a powerhouse tropical storm right now and you can make an argument that it won't be fully tropical for long as it's already interacting with the front. I can see our area getting solid winds even if the tropical storm doesn't get fully absorbed, though the best winds were always supposed to be over eastern NE.

You can say this will be a weak hybrid storm. We will be on the NE side if the storm which is the wind side.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

its not turning it into NJ, its hundreds of miles further to the NE.  Philippe will eventually get absorbed, its much easier to get it done south of NE than it is into cape may.  

Every other model turns it back into some portion of New Jersey. It's the lone hold out.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

its a much much easier forecast for eastern LI into SNE, hence they already have the high wind warning.  In the watch area its a very tough forecast and the general public has no idea about this.

The public thinks this will be a regular rainstorm because Mets are being conservative .

[MJO812]

Just now, bluewave said:

Every other model turns it back into some portion of New Jersey. It's the lone hold out.

Even the gefs disagrees with the op.

Big red flag there

[qg_omega]