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October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I'm strongly rooting for the weaker solution, but the other models have gone towards the Euro, such as rgem, NAM, ukie, ggem, German, jma....the GFS is an outlier at the moment. 

You have busted more than anyone on any weather board, mainly because you have a history of hugging the GFS. It has burned you many times before, and it might again. 

Its literally all alone.

I’m with you on rooting for a GFS solution. We don’t need 70 or 80 mph winds here and the coastal flooding that would result, and power outages. Hopefully there can be an inversion to keep that at bay but still give us 3-4” of rain that we need. Reminds me of March 2010 which was even worse than Irene here in terms of wind and tree damage. We don’t need that whatsoever. 

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

The key to the synoptic evolution is the extent to which Phillipe's energy is sufficiently entrained into the developing extra-tropical cyclone. The ECMWF, UKMET, and recently, mesoscale models, tend to implicate more interaction and thus much more enhancement of the mid-upper level energy. Conversely, the GFS remains more disjointed / separate with a delayed intensification of the extra-tropical cyclone. I think the significant divergence is due in part to the fact that there's a tropical element to the dynamical evolution, and the UK/Euro combination is fairly deadly, to the extent that it can accurately prognosticate projected path and concomitant dynamics. However, contemporaneously, I think most forecasters will be burned by completely discarding a major model solution within 24 hours from an event. With that being said, the UK/Euro have been much more consistent / less capricious run to run variance. I would implement a 70% / 30% weighting split (70% Euro/UK, 30% GFS) at this point. I think the center of the sfc low will probably propagate northward through the middle of New Jersey. The LLJ is very impressive and winds above 900mb are destructive; however, I think the effect of a temperature inversion will be a bit greater than anticipated as well away from the shoreline, especially. Strong convective banding will effectively transfer some potent gusts of 55+ mph on Long Island, and into SNE. I think most of NJ and inland areas will see their strongest gusts with the NWLY flow / CAA Monday morning due to better vertical mixing. At that time, I expect gusts to 50mph or possibly 55mph in NJ. This could cause scattered power outages and downed trees. I think the destructive winds capable of producing widespread outages will be over LI and SNE, but I don't foresee gusts over 65mph at this time, away from the immediate beaches/shore.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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Posted
27 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

12z Model for Philippe, look at the EURO its a massive outlier as I have been trying to get across

12_ms2.png

That's the track the Euro has for the low forming north of Philippe. You can see the Euro below tracking Philippe well SE to the west of Bermuda like most of the other guidance.

 

ecmwf_mslp_conus_36.thumb.png.f568c2d66e1ac7b712f1f07384632b60.png

 

 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Very weak, other models keep it separate and stronger that's the real difference

Lol so wait, are you admitting that what you showed isn't the euro track? 

So you are changing your reasoning now?

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Lol so wait, are you admitting that what you showed isn't the euro track? 

So you are changing your reasoning now?

No not at all it's on the site I didn't build it.  Its also very sad how I get attacked by using meteorology to defend a model.  If I was defending the Euro instead of the GFS, everyone would agree.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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Posted
3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

You're not getting a bubble of 20c 850 air without absorbing a tropical system this time of year.  That's a huge red flag to me with the Euros depection

Then why does the GFS have a similar +20C 850 mb core south of Long Island? 

FC  984    -0  22.0  19.2  84  2.8  20.1 180  41 296.6 299.2 293.9 338.1 14.39
  2  950   302  20.8  18.4  86  2.4  19.1 186  58 298.2 300.8 294.1 339.3 14.13
  3  900   771  21.4  14.5  65  6.9  16.8 194  63 303.5 305.7 293.9 338.1 11.61
  4  850  1266  20.2   9.
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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Then why does the GFS have a similar +20C 850 mb core south of Long Island? 


FC  984    -0  22.0  19.2  84  2.8  20.1 180  41 296.6 299.2 293.9 338.1 14.39
  2  950   302  20.8  18.4  86  2.4  19.1 186  58 298.2 300.8 294.1 339.3 14.13
  3  900   771  21.4  14.5  65  6.9  16.8 194  63 303.5 305.7 293.9 338.1 11.61
  4  850  1266  20.2   9.

its not turning it into NJ, its hundreds of miles further to the NE.  Philippe will eventually get absorbed, its much easier to get it done south of NE than it is into cape may.  

18_ms2.png

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mob1

mob1

Posted
Posted

This isn't exactly a powerhouse tropical storm right now and you can make an argument that it won't be fully tropical for long as it's already interacting with the front. I can see our area getting solid winds even if the tropical storm doesn't get fully absorbed, though the best winds were always supposed to be over eastern NE.

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mob1 said:

This isn't exactly a powerhouse tropical storm right now and you can make an argument that it won't be fully tropical for long as it's already interacting with the front. I can see our area getting solid winds even if the tropical storm doesn't get fully absorbed, though the best winds were always supposed to be over eastern NE.

its a much much easier forecast for eastern LI into SNE, hence they already have the high wind warning.  In the watch area its a very tough forecast and the general public has no idea about this.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

This isn't exactly a powerhouse tropical storm right now and you can make an argument that it won't be fully tropical for long as it's already interacting with the front. I can see our area getting solid winds even if the tropical storm doesn't get fully absorbed, though the best winds were always supposed to be over eastern NE.

You can say this will be a weak hybrid storm. We will be on the NE side if the storm which is the wind side.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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Posted
4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

its not turning it into NJ, its hundreds of miles further to the NE.  Philippe will eventually get absorbed, its much easier to get it done south of NE than it is into cape may.  

18_ms2.png

Every other model turns it back into some portion of New Jersey. It's the lone hold out.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

its a much much easier forecast for eastern LI into SNE, hence they already have the high wind warning.  In the watch area its a very tough forecast and the general public has no idea about this.

The public thinks this will be a regular rainstorm because Mets are being conservative .

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