October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[qg_omega]

Just now, forkyfork said:

we should be under a high wind watch

NAM/GFS/RGEM remain East or NE of the EURO, shocked how persistent the EURO has been having this come into cape may, makes a huge difference for the NYC area.  I would still discount it based on its performance of IRMA and how bad it busted running it too far west up the coast of Florida even 12 hrs before.  It has a known west and over-amped Bias since the upgrade.

 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

NAM/GFS/RGEM remain East or NE of the EURO, shocked how persistent the EURO has been having this come into cape may, makes a huge difference for the NYC area.  I would still discount it based on its performance of IRMA and how bad it busted running it too far west up the coast of Florida even 12 hrs before.  It has a known west and over-amped Bias since the upgrade.

 

except those other models keep coming west

[qg_omega]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

except those other models keep coming west

slightly but nothing like EURO

[Drz1111]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

slightly but nothing like EURO

Disagree.   Bad meteorology.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

slightly but nothing like EURO

That's not true at all. NAM brings hurricane force winds to Suffolk 

[psv88]

And the Euro had the best verification for IRMA in terms of track

[CIK62]

Buoy 44025 now up to 18'.

BTW:   NYC IS UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH  &  A HIGH WIND WATCH too.   Suffolk County into Conn. have a HW-WARNING NOW.

Coastal areas have a GALE Warning now.

[Drz1111]

[sarcasm] GEFS is so east. [/sarcasm]

[nesussxwx]

Currently in Keyport, NJ. Talked to many of the people here yesterday, and many where either not aware or downplaying the event. This storm is not getting as much attention and hype as others which ended up in busts. 

[qg_omega]

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That's not true at all. NAM brings hurricane force winds to Suffolk 

For the twin forks only Euro is hundred plus miles SW

[qg_omega]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

And the Euro had the best verification for IRMA in terms of track

Badly busted last 24 hrs caused the massive storm surge busts from Naples to Tampa

[BxEngine]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Badly busted last 24 hrs caused the massive storm surge busts from Naples to Tampa

Just so we're clear. Youre arguing against following the euro, because of one "bust" in a hurricane a month ago, but to instead follow models with lower verification scores, more verifiable busts in recent events, and have been slowly adjusting further west as we get closer to the event. Correct?

[qg_omega]

Just now, BxEngine said:

Just so we're clear. Youre arguing not to follow the euro, because of one "bust" in a hurricane a month ago, but to instead follow models with lower verification scores, more verifiable busts in recent events, and have been slowly adjusting further west as we get closer to the event. Correct?

No because of the well documented west and over amped bias, I'm not throwing it out completely but it needs to be discounted

[cut]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No because of the well documented west and over amped bias, I'm not throwing it out completely but it needs to be discounted

Wait .... 'Im not throwing it out COMPLETELY but it needs to be DISCOUNTED'. What?????

[qg_omega]

Just now, cut said:

Wait .... 'Im not throwing it out COMPLETELY but it needs to be DISCOUNTED'. What?????

Yes, what's complicated?

[cut]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Yes, what's complicated?

Reads like " Im not throwing it out, but throw it out" Come on man.

[qg_omega]

Just now, cut said:

Reads like " Im not throwing it out, but throw it out" Come on man.

I said discounted

[cut]

Hello Phillipe!!??? Wow.

[cut]

Just now, qg_omega said:

I said discounted

Discounted means ... well ... thrown out

[cut]

Just now, cut said:

Discounted means ... well ... thrown out

Unless you meant like "50% off the already low price"

 

[qg_omega]

26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No because of the well documented west and over amped bias, I'm not throwing it out completely but it needs to be discounted

GFS remains well NE and keeps the tropical low completely separate, I believe this is correct and it scores a huge win against the Euro once again

[cut]

Back to reading I go - great discussion (mostly) by some educated folks. Go Riverhawks (OK back in read mode)

[psv88]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

GFS remains well NE and keeps the tropical low completely separate, I believe this is correct and it scores a huge win against the Euro once again

The GFS is all alone bro

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The GFS is all alone bro

It's not the same model it use to be and has had major wins of last plus in my opinion it makes more sense meteorologically.  I don't see Philippe going into SNJ and forming a super low.  Look at NHC path they agree, 18z RGEM moves the ts over the cape and keeps them separate, NAM is in between.  Keeping TS Philippe as it's own entity is the model I am going with

[psv88]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

It's not the same model it use to be and has had major wins of last plus in my opinion it makes more sense meteorologically.  I don't see Philippe going into SNJ and forming a super low.  Look at NHC path they agree, 18z RGEM moves the ts over the cape and keeps them separate, NAM is in between.  Keeping TS Philippe as it's own entity is the model I am going with

I'm strongly rooting for the weaker solution, but the other models have gone towards the Euro, such as rgem, NAM, ukie, ggem, German, jma....the GFS is an outlier at the moment. 

You have busted more than anyone on any weather board, mainly because you have a history of hugging the GFS. It has burned you many times before, and it might again. 

Its literally all alone.

[psv88]

And the GFS was atrocious for IRMA, laughably bad. Remember the 893 pressure? Then it had a South Carolina landfall for awhile. 

 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It's not the same model it use to be and has had major wins of last plus in my opinion it makes more sense meteorologically.  I don't see Philippe going into SNJ and forming a super low.  Look at NHC path they agree, 18z RGEM moves the ts over the cape and keeps them separate, NAM is in between.  Keeping TS Philippe as it's own entity is the model I am going with

Gefs at 12z was Euro like

[qg_omega]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I'm strongly rooting for the weaker solution, but the other models have gone towards the Euro, such as rgem, NAM, ukie, ggem, German, jma....the GFS is an outlier at the moment. 

You have busted more than anyone on any weather board, mainly because you have a history of hugging the GFS. It has burned you many times before, and it might again. 

Its literally all alone.

This is not true but I have said my point and will wait for the storm

[jm1220]

I’d buy the Euro over the GFS any day on this, but the Euro is still the extreme solution with 80+ mph winds from Queens east. More likely it’ll be 50-60 mph type wind but still disruptive. Still surprised we don’t have coastal flood watches or warnings with the southerly fetch. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

This is not true but I have said my point and will wait for the storm

Everybody on every weather board knows it's true man come on. You are the joke of these weather boards. If that's not correct, then why do you have this new username?