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October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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weathermedic

weathermedic

Posted
Posted

Upton's AFD about wind potential: 

The next potential hazard is for high winds Sunday night into
Monday. The aforementioned southerly LLJ has the potential to
bring high winds up to 60 mph to eastern LI and southern CT
Sunday night. Model consensus is taking the low track just west
of these areas. Any subsequent shift (west/east) would alter
the location of this axis of high winds. Model soundings with
the close proximity of warm near shore waters support sufficient
mixing for this high wind potential. Lapse rates at some of the
coastal upper air soundings exceed moist adiabatic lapse rates,
which is a strong signal for mixing some of these high winds to
the surface. As such, a high wind watch is in effect.

On the backside of the low Monday, gusty west winds will likely
meet wind advisory criteria, perhaps even high wind warning
criteria. Confidence is too low for a watch at this time.
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Joe4alb

Joe4alb

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, stockmanjr said:

High Wind Watch NYC/NENJ/LI 

CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-291000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0001.171029T2200Z-171030T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0001.171029T2200Z-171030T1000Z/
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
318 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday.
The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* Winds...Southeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Timing...Sunday night. Conditions may continue into Monday.

* Impacts...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.
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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Upton's AFD about wind potential: 


The next potential hazard is for high winds Sunday night into
Monday. The aforementioned southerly LLJ has the potential to
bring high winds up to 60 mph to eastern LI and southern CT
Sunday night. Model consensus is taking the low track just west
of these areas. Any subsequent shift (west/east) would alter
the location of this axis of high winds. Model soundings with
the close proximity of warm near shore waters support sufficient
mixing for this high wind potential. Lapse rates at some of the
coastal upper air soundings exceed moist adiabatic lapse rates,
which is a strong signal for mixing some of these high winds to
the surface. As such, a high wind watch is in effect.

On the backside of the low Monday, gusty west winds will likely
meet wind advisory criteria, perhaps even high wind warning
criteria. Confidence is too low for a watch at this time.

This is old

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

I am actually surprised Mt.Holly hasn't upgraded/expanded or issued any other additional watches/warnings. I am in NE Middlesex Co. and I have nothing in effect as of yet.

They do not believe the center will be to our west, I guess, when it passes by.

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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
Posted

As best as I can tell after looking close at models, this is being depicted as a true hybrid.  It’s certainly not Norwegian and it doesn’t look like a Shapiro-Keyser either, despite the warm seclusion. The warm core looks like it’s convectively induced.

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