October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Can't ever remember a core warming this much approaching SNJ.

 

 

 

 

Are we looking at a named subtropical system here?

[CoastalWx]

Thanks guys!

[Hoth]

Looks like someone will owe someone else $20. Or was it $100?

[psv88]

25 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Looks like someone will owe someone else $20. Or was it $100?

Central Park needs to record 50. I'll win 

[forkyfork]

the eps looks west of the op...

[stockmanjr]

High Wind Watch NYC/NENJ/LI

[jm1220]

Surprised there isn't a Coastal Flood Watch at least due to the strong southerly fetch. 

[weathermedic]

Upton's AFD about wind potential:

The next potential hazard is for high winds Sunday night into
Monday. The aforementioned southerly LLJ has the potential to
bring high winds up to 60 mph to eastern LI and southern CT
Sunday night. Model consensus is taking the low track just west
of these areas. Any subsequent shift (west/east) would alter
the location of this axis of high winds. Model soundings with
the close proximity of warm near shore waters support sufficient
mixing for this high wind potential. Lapse rates at some of the
coastal upper air soundings exceed moist adiabatic lapse rates,
which is a strong signal for mixing some of these high winds to
the surface. As such, a high wind watch is in effect.

On the backside of the low Monday, gusty west winds will likely
meet wind advisory criteria, perhaps even high wind warning
criteria. Confidence is too low for a watch at this time.

[Joe4alb]

6 minutes ago, stockmanjr said:

High Wind Watch NYC/NENJ/LI

CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-291000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0001.171029T2200Z-171030T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0001.171029T2200Z-171030T1000Z/
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
318 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday.
The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* Winds...Southeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Timing...Sunday night. Conditions may continue into Monday.

* Impacts...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

[weathermedic]

5 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

*Warning*....

Actually the Warning is for Suffolk County and parts of Connecticut. Watch for Nassau county and points westward including NYC.

[Joe4alb]

4 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Actually the Warning is for Suffolk County and parts of Connecticut. Watch for Nassau county and points westward including NYC.

lol yeah, saw that just after I posted, so I edited accordingly

[qg_omega]

7 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Upton's AFD about wind potential:

The next potential hazard is for high winds Sunday night into
Monday. The aforementioned southerly LLJ has the potential to
bring high winds up to 60 mph to eastern LI and southern CT
Sunday night. Model consensus is taking the low track just west
of these areas. Any subsequent shift (west/east) would alter
the location of this axis of high winds. Model soundings with
the close proximity of warm near shore waters support sufficient
mixing for this high wind potential. Lapse rates at some of the
coastal upper air soundings exceed moist adiabatic lapse rates,
which is a strong signal for mixing some of these high winds to
the surface. As such, a high wind watch is in effect.

On the backside of the low Monday, gusty west winds will likely
meet wind advisory criteria, perhaps even high wind warning
criteria. Confidence is too low for a watch at this time.

This is old

[forkyfork]

[qg_omega]

Just now, forkyfork said:

What are you thinking for but wind, 30 mph with gusts 50 to 60?

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

Into ACY!  

[SnoSki14]

Holy crap there are sub 960 mb readings on a few of those EPS individuals in NE PA.

And a track like that would bring damaging winds across most of our area.

[tmagan]

12Z RGEM has hurricane force wind gusts across eastern Long Island Sunday evening.

[doncat]

Watch your barometers...The euro shows the center passing right over the city with a 972mb reading...that's about 28.67".

[dmillz25]

38 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Central Park needs to record 50. I'll win 

Looking like you're going to lose 

[CIK62]

Cobb Method data dump has nearly 5"(old run) of rain here in a 30 hour period (now under 3" too).    But Plumes have under 3".

[Rtd208]

I am actually surprised Mt.Holly hasn't upgraded/expanded or issued any other additional watches/warnings. I am in NE Middlesex Co. and I have nothing in effect as of yet.

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Looking like you're going to lose 

Thought he said any nyc asos.

[CIK62]

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

I am actually surprised Mt.Holly hasn't upgraded/expanded or issued any other additional watches/warnings. I am in NE Middlesex Co. and I have nothing in effect as of yet.

They do not believe the center will be to our west, I guess, when it passes by.

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Thought he said any nyc asos.

Shhhh

[Drz1111]

As best as I can tell after looking close at models, this is being depicted as a true hybrid.  It’s certainly not Norwegian and it doesn’t look like a Shapiro-Keyser either, despite the warm seclusion. The warm core looks like it’s convectively induced.

[dmillz25]

15 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Thought he said any nyc asos.

He definitely did lol

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I am actually surprised Mt.Holly hasn't upgraded/expanded or issued any other additional watches/warnings. I am in NE Middlesex Co. and I have nothing in effect as of yet.

Flood watch here. Might get a wind advisory

[Rtd208]

11 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

They do not believe the center will be to our west, I guess, when it passes by.

Well they did issue a Flood Watch for their northern most counties above the Middlesex/Somerset/Hunterdon line. I would think that at least should be expanded based on current model guidance.

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Flood watch here. Might get a wind advisory

Exactly, Mt.Holly does not issue forecasts/Watches/Warnings for Union Co. Upton does.

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Flood watch here. Might get a wind advisory

we should be under a high wind watch