October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro was intense for NYC. 

Need the storm to turn into southern NJ and head NW into NEPA that should do it for the city on NE

[qg_omega]

Just now, bluewave said:

The 3km NAM is slowly catching up with the Euro and now has a +20C 850 mb warm core near ACY.

Need the tropical low to remain disorganized

[MJO812]

Nam is terrible for the whole area.

[nycwinter]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam is terrible for the whole area.

terrible as in bad weather or not bad weather?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

terrible as in bad weather or not bad weather?

Bad weather

Alot of wind and rain

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Bad weather

Alot of wind and rain

that's not so bad at all i enjoy that kind of weather

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam is terrible for the whole area.

Gfs brings it too, really fascinating with dual lows too. Both are in the 970s and 960s. 

[forkyfork]

the gfs just made another move toward the euro

[IrishRob17]

Not surprising, most of us saw the huge potential this system has days ago. Streams and rivers are still relatively low around here but the wind could very well be the bigger story around here. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the gfs just made another move toward the euro

This may be our first +20C 850 mb warm core for this time of year.

 

 

 

 

[jm1220]

50-60mph+ southerly winds would be horrible for the beaches down here and would drive tons of water into the bays. The Euro last night showed gusts to 70 here. The fact that models continue to amp up the low and move it into NJ while dumping up to 4" of rain is quite concerning. That would cause some pretty bad power outages and coastal flooding. Around here, barely anyone is even talking about this potential. 

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

Can we expect trees to come down in Passaic County (Wayne)? I'd like to do all my storm prep today but I won't go crazy if the threat isn't that great.

[christhesnowman]

Hi all looking for some advice.  When is this storm really supposed to get cranking?   I am flying into nyc area from west cost tommorow supposed to land around 430pm.  Airline giving us option to reschedule flight.   Is that before the worst of it so do u think flights will be delayed or cancelled by then?  Should I just reschedule for Monday?  Thanks

[forkyfork]

the ggem came west as well

[qg_omega]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This may be our first +20C 850 mb warm core for this time of year.

 

 

 

 

I would think that warm seclusion is pretty inverted with calm winds underneath

[Rtd208]

3 minutes ago, christhesnowman said:

Hi all looking for some advice.  When is this storm really supposed to get cranking?   I am flying into nyc area from west cost tommorow supposed to land around 430pm.  Airline giving us option to reschedule flight.   Is that before the worst of it so do u think flights will be delayed or cancelled by then?  Should I just reschedule for Monday?  Thanks

Rain moves in later tonight, things get cranking tomorrow morning with the worst affects tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night but winds will be an issue going into Monday as well the way it looks as of now.

[purduewx80]

7 minutes ago, christhesnowman said:

Hi all looking for some advice.  When is this storm really supposed to get cranking?   I am flying into nyc area from west cost tommorow supposed to land around 430pm.  Airline giving us option to reschedule flight.   Is that before the worst of it so do u think flights will be delayed or cancelled by then?  Should I just reschedule for Monday?  Thanks

depends which airport, but there will be major delays and cancellations at all 3 metro airports sunday and monday. wx will be impactful to aviation first thing sunday morning and only worsens from there.

[Rjay]

Sup

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Sup

Yikes, is that a 95mph at FRG? That would obviously be pretty horrendous for the City on east wind-wise. 

[Rjay]

[Neblizzard]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yikes, is that a 95mph at FRG? That would obviously be pretty horrendous for the City on east wind-wise. 

A nightmare scenario if the euro is right with those winds.  

[CoastalWx]

You guys mind posting the gust maps for our SNE brethren? 900mb too. Thanks!

[Hoth]

I'm more intrigued that the Euro keeps upping the ante each run. Usually the sign of an over performer.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

A nightmare scenario if the euro is right with those winds.  

It's probably overdone with the 90+ mph gusts, but it'll be very nasty if the low goes west of NYC to say the least. It'll be a big surprise here in Long Beach given how little this is being talked about. We have a 5th anniversary "commemoration" of Sandy tomorrow afternoon too.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys mind posting the gust maps for our SNE brethren? 900mb too. Thanks!

 

[forkyfork]

placement of max gusts is going to come down to convective elements that we won't be able to pinpoint until the event is underway

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I assume it's on a NNW heading. Very impressive once again. I think a lot of people will be caught off guard, happy 5 year anniversary Sandy.

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys mind posting the gust maps for our SNE brethren? 900mb too. Thanks!

Edit: They came in backwards..

 

[SEC]

2 hours ago, christhesnowman said:

Hi all looking for some advice.  When is this storm really supposed to get cranking?   I am flying into nyc area from west cost tommorow supposed to land around 430pm.  Airline giving us option to reschedule flight.   Is that before the worst of it so do u think flights will be delayed or cancelled by then?  Should I just reschedule for Monday?  Thanks

There'll probably be heavy rain at that time tomw (Sunday) but the strong winds shouldn't be an issue yet. The winds will affect the area later on at night into Monday and they can cause bad travel delays that will screw up time schedules for most of the day on Monday. Also, it depends which airport you're flying into..... I imagine JFK will be worst. I'd stick with tomorrow's flight. Good luck.

 

[bluewave]

 

Can't ever remember a core warming this much approaching SNJ.