October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[NJwx85]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Nobody cares about rain, how are the winds

The rain is going to be the biggest story, especially in areas prone to river flooding.

[NJwx85]

00z RGEM is a tremendous hit.

Well over 100mm of rain in NYC with plenty more to come.

[Rjay]

Ukie track 

[forkyfork]

the euro shows a snj landfall with damaging winds over the entire metro from both the southeast and northwest 

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the euro shows a snj landfall with damaging winds over the entire metro from both the southeast and northwest 

Yup. 0z run took it up a notch with the winds. 

[Snowlover11]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Nobody cares about rain, how are the winds

speak for yourself 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

speak for yourself 

I understand anyone who has concerns about the rain especially if they live in a flood prone area but the winds are the real story here.  

[forkyfork]

the euro shows a powerful hybrid low making landfall in SNJ on a nnw heading. what more does anyone want?

[Rjay]

[Rjay]

Just peeked at the control run and fwiw it's probably the worst case scenario with a landfall in SNJ and in wnw trajectory.

[Rjay]

Upton has issued a FFW for the entire area but nothing from My Holly yet.  Also a high wind watch for se CT and Suffolk Co.

[SnoSki14]

There are some really intense individuals among the EPS that would easily produce widespread, damaging winds. 

I'm a little surprised how tepid Mt. Holly is being given what's being shown. 

[CIK62]

Buoy 44025 has 'jumped' to 16'.  Predictions had run 11' down to 4', the last 3 days.

[MJO812]

Gfs is still not like the Euro

Strong storm though

[mranger48]

Just peeked at the control run and fwiw it's probably the worst case scenario with a landfall in SNJ and in wnw trajectory.

 

 

 

Good thing the moon phase will be in waxing gibbous with tidal coefficients only in the low to middle 50s (avg range). No astronomical extremes will hopefully minimize coastal flooding potential somewhat, one would think. That being said, high tide is at 4:22pm sunday. Btw...great website below regarding solunar activity, tides, tidal coefficients, etc. The selected location is Weehawken but you can change it

 

http:// http://www.tides4fishing.com/us/new-jersey/weehawken-union-city#_solunar

 

 

 

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[bluewave]

Don't think that we have seen an 850 mb warm core this extreme in late October before.

 

 

 

 

[qg_omega]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Don't think that we have seen an 850 mb warm core this extreme in late October before.

 

 

 

 

Phasing in the tropical system, I'm still very skeptical of this evolution and think the Euro will correct NE

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Phasing in the tropical system, I'm still very skeptical of this evolution and think the Euro will correct NE

Gefs agrees with the Euro

SNJ hit looks likely

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Phasing in the tropical system, I'm still very skeptical of this evolution and think the Euro will correct NE

Running out of time for that

[qg_omega]

impressive meridional flow

https://www.weathertap.com/hub/SAT_EUS_IR4ENH_ANI.gif

[NJwx85]

13 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

impressive meridional flow

https://www.weathertap.com/hub/SAT_EUS_IR4ENH_ANI.gif

It's behind a paywall 

[NJwx85]

Mt Holly has issued a FFW for all of its Northern zones.

[larrye]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the euro shows a powerful hybrid low making landfall in SNJ on a nnw heading. what more does anyone want?

Agreement from some other models?

[Rtd208]

Both Mt.Holly & Upton have some rain moving in as early as late tonight, I am sure additional watches and warnings will be issued/expanded/upgraded after the 12z runs as long as the models continue towards a stronger more impactful storm for the area. The 00z Euro was very impressive and the other models seem to be heading in a similar direction.

[psv88]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the NAM is still playing catch up with the Euro, it's already down to below -5 SD on LLJ and surface pressure. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How are winds on the NAM

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The new 12z has hurricane gusts out on Eastern Long Island. 

SFC  984    -1  18.3  17.8  97  0.5  17.9 118  48 292.8 295.1 291.7 330.0 13.11
  2  950   302  17.6  17.5  99  0.1  17.5 123  78 295.1 297.5 292.6 333.4 13.35
  3  900   764  16.1  16.0  99  0.1  16.1 135  93 298.1 300.5 293.2 335.4 12.81

Damn. What about for us?

[SnoSki14]

Nam still struggling with what to do with the tropical disturbance, that probably won't get resolved until tomorrow morning. 

[CoastalWx]

You really want to be east of all these small lobes of low pressure and/or any tropical potential. The models will probably struggle a bit with all the convection and latent heat feedback which is why you see the nipples (for lack of a better word) of low pressure moving in from the S and SE. 

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You really want to be east of all these small lobes of low pressure and/or any tropical potential. The models will probably struggle a bit with all the convection and latent heat feedback which is why you see the nipples (for lack of a better word) of low pressure moving in from the S and SE. 

Yes your area is ground zero and Eastern Long island especially twin forks

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Yes your area is ground zero and Eastern Long island especially twin forks

Euro was intense for NYC.