MJO812 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Agreed the pressure field is also very broad Which model has the pressure field broad ? The Euro sure don't. I don't get why people are just dismissing the possibility of this storm to be strong. High winds and heavy rain will be the factor with coastal floodibg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 20 minutes ago, psv88 said: As i said, a 40-50 mph rainstorm is likely on the cards, and Upton agrees. odels are in good agreement that full latitude longwave trough extending through the Mississippi Valley Sun morning becomes negatively tilted as it pivots towards the Mid Atlantic coast, continuing into New England and SE Canada on Monday. At the sfc, a cold front advancing towards the area will pull deep layer tropical moisture up from the south with low pressure intensifying near the Mid Atlantic coast. Uncertainty remains with the low track and strength which would result in differing impacts across the local area. Increasing SE winds develop on Sun although strongest winds are expected to hold off until late Sun night/Mon as the system departs. At this time, only seeing the potential for wind advsy, although damaging winds are a possibility, especially E of the low. The other potential hazard will be fresh water flooding. Moderate to heavy rain is expected to develop across the area on Sun and continue through Sun night before tapering off. Guidance has been wavering with amounts and the location of the axis but the potential for 2-3 inches with locally higher amounts of rainfall exists. It`s still a bit early for any headlines, especially with the uncertainty, so based on collaboration with surrounding offices will hold off on any flood or wind headlines. Winds diminish Mon aftn/eve as the low lifts through eastern Canada. High pres then builds to the south with dry and fair weather into Wed. Another frontal system then approaches for the latter half of the week. Yes with higher gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Which model has the pressure field broad ? The Euro sure don't. I don't get why people are just dismissing the possibility of this storm to be strong. High winds and heavy rain will be the factor with coastal floodibg. Are you going to evacuate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 the gfs already is west/stronger than the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2017 Author Share Posted October 27, 2017 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the gfs already is west/stronger than the 12z run Yeah, gets pulled in from east to ACY to near ALB. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_18z/gfsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, gets pulled in from east to ACY to west of ALB. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_18z/gfsloop.html The pressure field is still very broad and 93l remains separate, winds aren't as impressive as one would expect a storm in the low 980s due to the dispersed field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Hard to go against the Euro/EPS at this range, clear trend of gfs and nam towards it too. Those winds behind the low look really impressive, could see 50-60 mph gusts out of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: The pressure field is still very broad and 93l remains separate, winds aren't as impressive as one would expect a storm in the low 980s due to the dispersed field It's the gfs. It's correcting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2017 Author Share Posted October 27, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's the gfs. It's correcting west. I hope the coming GFS replacement is an improvement on the current version. yesterday today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: For NYC proper on this run of the GFS yes. But the forecast soundings out in Suffolk are high wind warning from the SE and then from the W. They are far enough east to be in the llj, Suffolk getting good winds is a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 I think our best winds come Monday afternoon in strong CAA I can see HWW for the whole area for Monday afternoon. The best SSE winds are for Eastern LI to SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Don't understand some of the pessimism here. The low end with this event is 2-3" of rain with gusts to 50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 This was 12z in regards to the tropical low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 29 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This was 12z in regards to the tropical low 18z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Upton, please don't delete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 58 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Upton, please don't delete Their graphic says otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Nam is going full weenie on the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Nam absorbs the tropical low and dumps plenty of rain on the area with 60 mph gusts. It is close to something more. Have to see how the tropical low matures overnight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Upton point and click has me gusting to 31 lol, keeps decreasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Upton point and click has me gusting to 31 lol, keeps decreasing The map is above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: The map is above Asleep at the wheel. Come on. That's irresponsible in truth. Suffolk east will be gusting at least 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 GFS west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: GFS west again Still have all day tomorrow to go even more west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On October 24, 2017 at 7:54 AM, Brian5671 said: Looks like a narrow jackpot-Models have been fairly steady with a NYC east JP for the last few days Actually it's been mostly a NJ JP, especially on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 GFS is 1 to 2 inches of rain and 20 to 35mph winds and gusts to 50 on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: GFS is 1 to 2 inches of rain and 20 to 35mph winds and gusts to 50 on the backside 2 inches of rain on the gfs Gfs is still trending west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: 2 inches of rain on the gfs Gfs is still trending west I guess if you ignore all of NJ that's why I said 1 to 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: I guess if you ignore all of NJ that's why I said 1 to 2 To be fair the GFS hasn't shown any run to run continuity whereas the Euro has been locked in. But by all means, carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 00z GGEM is a huge hit. 3-6"+ of rain, she that's with TD 18 never fully being absorbed until North of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 00z GGEM is a huge hit. 3-6"+ of rain, she that's with TD 18 never fully being absorbed until North of the area. Nobody cares about rain, how are the winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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