October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

It's a soueaster

True

[MJO812]

RGEM has 4 -5 inches for NYC and Philly.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Snow88 said:

RGEM has 4 -5 inches for NYC and Philly.

CMC?

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

RGEM has 4 -5 inches for NYC and Philly.

that's the extended RGEM-the regular RGEM only runs 48 hrs.

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

CMC?

here's the CMC

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

here's the CMC

Yeah I saw that. I thought thats what he meant instead of rgem

[BxEngine]

This is pretty easy to solve. If its not a storm worth discussing, kindly ask the person holding the gun to your head forcing you to keep posting in this thread, to remove it. 

 

Thanks.

[NJwx85]

What happened, no school today?

Meteorology, not modelology. 

Look at where the strongest jet support is on all of the reliable guidance.

Your surface low develops right on the nose of the 500mb jet with the heaviest rains just to the NW of wherever the track is. The drier solutions are because they essentially track the mid-level centers overhead and create an area of subsidence. The 12z UKMET essentially shows this. The 00z Euro is close to a perfect track for us.

 

 

[Morris]

 

[bluewave]

The 12z UKMET has a 11.7" max over the interior NE.

 

 

 

 

 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The 12z UKMET has a 11.7" max over the interior NE.

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah it's a bad track for our area with the surface low tracking over NYC. 

[Juliancolton]

45 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Nah, just trying to put the storm into proper perspective. Its not Sandy, and some people are acting like it is. It has the potential to be a moderate Noreaster with 2-4" of rain for the local area, with 45-50 mph wind gusts. 

The pressures yesterday were progged in the low 970s, which would have been historic. The storm now isn't forecasted to be quite as deep, not as wet, and not as windy. 

Sorry if that isnt what you want to hear. 

So in essence you clutched to the most extreme and far-fetched solutions and forgot to leave any room for moderation. Weenie move there. Storm severity isn't binary... there's a whole spectrum of impacts between "unremarkable" and "Sandy".

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, Morris said:

 

The Euro has this system impacting us directly while the 12z GFS has the main tropical low staying separate and well Southeast, similar to the 12z GGEM. 

[Rjay]

25 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

This is pretty easy to solve. If its not a storm worth discussing, kindly ask the person holding the gun to your head forcing you to keep posting in this thread, to remove it. 

 

Thanks.

Typical Noreaster27.

[BxEngine]

Just now, Rjay said:

Typical Noreaster27.

Si. 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Typical Noreaster27.

 

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Si. 

Don't you guys know that anything less than a Sandy redux is no big deal here anymore? Is less than a foot of snow even worth tracking anymore?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

Don't you guys know that anything less than a Sandy redux is no big deal here anymore? Is less than a foot of snow even worth tracking anymore?

I even track snow showers

[qg_omega]

28 minutes ago, Morris said:

 

Totally separate storm

[NJwx85]

Just now, Snow88 said:

I track even snow showers

We know Anthony, you get excited over seeing flurries on a 384hr GFS run.

Seriously, this storm has the potential to be one of the big rainers and wind producers in recent history, right up there with March 2010. 

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Totally separate storm

It's the same storm. The trough is absorbing the moisture from 93L.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Totally separate storm

Not entirely true, depending on which guidance you favor.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not entirely true, depending on which guidance you favor.

Tremendous moisture feed

[NJwx85]

Only real differences on the Euro through 18z Sunday is that it's a few hours faster. 

[MJO812]

988 just east of Hatteras at 54 hours

[NJwx85]

Euro is going to be a tremendous hit once again. The surface low is what's left of 93L.

[NJwx85]

978mb near Allentown

[NJwx85]

We get into the stronger winds too

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Euro actually absorbs the tropical low. This run is windier for the area on the backside.

[Brian5671]

The euro is a weenie's dream come true-inches of rain for most and big winds from PHL-BOS.   Some front side, some backside NW winds