October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[NJwx85]

It's still the long range NAM, even so, it has several slugs of heavy rain coming through and high totals.

[MJO812]

The winds on the backside are much stronger for the NYC area then when the low gets up here.

[bluewave]

The NAM took a step toward the Euro as the 500 mb maps are nearly identical. The Euro just has a more consolidated low instead of the baggy and strung out NAM.

 

 

 

[dmillz25]

The GFS slupers have been silenced. 988 low into Central LI

[NJwx85]

The GFS still isn't fully on board. It shifted way West with the secondary surface low but the first precip for the day on Sunday goes from E PA into Upstate NY.

[Brian5671]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

The GFS still isn't fully on board. It shifted way West with the secondary surface low but the first precip for the day on Sunday goes from E PA into Upstate NY.

It will continue to shift towards the Euro in steps.  So predictable with this model

[brooklynwx99]

The GFS is coming back to reality. Huge trend towards deeper and more negative over the last few runs. Energy ahead of the trough is also more powerful and N-S oriented. These changes manifest themselves as a stronger LP and heavier rains, particularly over the NYC metro and E NY.

[qg_omega]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

12z GFS finally caves.

Not sure what you mean, it's two separate lows, gfs has been very consistent in keeping these separate (correctly)

[Brian5671]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Not sure what you mean, it's two separate lows, gfs has been very consistent in keeping these separate (correctly)

all models have the lows separate-the euro has the tropical low weak and out to sea....(which is key-if it were stronger, the western low would be weaker)

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Not sure what you mean, it's two separate lows, gfs has been very consistent in keeping these separate (correctly)

Take a look at the above post and you'll see

[SnoSki14]

That eastern low is wreaking havoc with the models, the most intense, western runs had that entity absorbed into the main low.

We're not going to get a powerful system until models show that again.

[dmillz25]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That eastern low is wreaking havoc with the models, the most intense, western runs had that entity absorbed into the main low.

We're not going to get a powerful system until models show that again.

We need rain tbh idc how strong the storm is 

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Take a look at the above post and you'll see

It's two lows on every model, the Caribbean low is buried deep in the tropics and will not affect the area

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That eastern low is wreaking havoc with the models, the most intense, western runs had that entity absorbed into the main low.

We're not going to get a powerful system until models show that again.

It's not possible it gets absorbed anymore, it's much too far south

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That eastern low is wreaking havoc with the models, the most intense, western runs had that entity absorbed into the main low.

We're not going to get a powerful system until models show that again.

2+ inches of rain and winds 50 mph is not powerful ? 

I see the naysayers are out in full force.

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

2+ inches of rain and winds 50 mph is not powerful ? 

I see the naysayers are out in full force.

50 mph winds is not 70 mph winds. 

Many of us saw 3" of rain and 45 mph winds this weekend. This event looks to be drier with similar winds. 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

2+ inches of rain and winds 50 mph is not powerful ? 

I see the naysayers are out in full force.

It's very similar to a moderate nor'easter and I have doubts many people even see 50 mph winds outside the immediate coast. 

Powerful was what the Euro showed yesterday afternoon. 

[Juliancolton]

Not a noteworthy system unless we see widespread 70 mph winds. You guys are too much.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

50 mph winds is not 70 mph winds. 

Many of us saw 3" of rain and 45 mph winds this weekend. This event looks to be drier with similar winds. 

Not my area

This event looks wetter and windier.

Are you going with the gfs ?

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's very similar to a moderate nor'easter and I have doubts many people even see 50 mph winds outside the immediate coast. 

Powerful was what the Euro showed yesterday afternoon. 

It is still a strong storm

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It is still a strong storm

I'll happily take it, my area has had almost nothing since early September, completely whiffed on the rains from early this week. 

[qg_omega]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

50 mph winds is not 70 mph winds. 

Many of us saw 3" of rain and 45 mph winds this weekend. This event looks to be drier with similar winds. 

Probably stronger NW winds but having strong NW winds is not the same as strong SE winds

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Not a noteworthy system unless we see widespread 70 mph winds. You guys are too much.

If the pressures fall below 980 mb over portions of New England, then it will break the all time minimum October pressure record there. The record was set with the late October 2006 event.

 

 

 

 

[psv88]

15 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Not a noteworthy system unless we see widespread 70 mph winds. You guys are too much.

Nah, just trying to put the storm into proper perspective. Its not Sandy, and some people are acting like it is. It has the potential to be a moderate Noreaster with 2-4" of rain for the local area, with 45-50 mph wind gusts. 

The pressures yesterday were progged in the low 970s, which would have been historic. The storm now isn't forecasted to be quite as deep, not as wet, and not as windy. 

Sorry if that isnt what you want to hear. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'll happily take it, my area has had almost nothing since early September, completely whiffed on the rains from early this week. 

Same here

I barely got any rain the other day

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Nah, just trying to put the storm into proper perspective. Its not Sandy, and some people are acting like it is. It has the potential to be a moderate Noreaster with 2-4" of rain for the local area, with 45-50 mph wind gusts. 

The pressures yesterday were progged in the low 970s, which would have been historic. The storm now isn't forecasted to be quite as deep, not as wet, and not as windy. 

Sorry if that isnt what you want to hear. 

LOL

2 + inches of rain isn't wet ? 

What land are you living on ?

This is going to be a nasty noreaster with rain and plenty of wind. 

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the pressures fall below 980 mb over portions of New England, then it will break the all time minimum October pressure record there. The record was set with the late October 2006 event.

 

 

 

 

Sandy's pressure is still so mind boggling and such a massive anomaly. Even the hurricane prone States of the gulf couldn't compete. 

[bluewave]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Sandy's pressure is still so mind boggling and such a massive anomaly. Even the hurricane prone States of the gulf couldn't compete. 

One of the most singularly extreme events relative to climo in US history.

[mob1]

In regards to the dueling lows the models are showing, it's important to remember that they often show it at this range and then consolidates them as we get closer. It isn't always the case and we've seen double barrel lows before, but a good example of models being overzealous with it was the January 2016 blizzard, models erroneously had two lows and it pulled the best forcing east. Right now it still looks like a solid storm, but don't write off anything more just yet.

[dmillz25]

12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

LOL

2 + inches of rain isn't wet ? 

What land are you living on ?

This is going to be a nasty noreaster with rain and plenty of wind. 

It's a soueaster