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October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Agreed the pressure field is also very broad

Which model has the pressure field broad ? The Euro sure don't. I don't get why people are just dismissing the possibility of this storm to be strong. High winds and heavy rain will be the factor with coastal floodibg.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

As i said, a 40-50 mph rainstorm is likely on the cards, and Upton agrees. 

  


odels are in good agreement that full latitude longwave trough
extending through the Mississippi Valley Sun morning becomes
negatively tilted as it pivots towards the Mid Atlantic coast,
continuing into New England and SE Canada on Monday. At the
sfc, a cold front advancing towards the area will pull deep
layer tropical moisture up from the south with low pressure
intensifying near the Mid Atlantic coast. Uncertainty remains
with the low track and strength which would result in differing
impacts across the local area. Increasing SE winds develop on
Sun although strongest winds are expected to hold off until late
Sun night/Mon as the system departs. At this time, only seeing
the potential for wind advsy, although damaging winds are a
possibility, especially E of the low. The other potential
hazard will be fresh water flooding. Moderate to heavy rain is
expected to develop across the area on Sun and continue through
Sun night before tapering off. Guidance has been wavering with
amounts and the location of the axis but the potential for 2-3
inches with locally higher amounts of rainfall exists. It`s
still a bit early for any headlines, especially with the
uncertainty, so based on collaboration with surrounding offices
will hold off on any flood or wind headlines.

Winds diminish Mon aftn/eve as the low lifts through eastern
Canada. High pres then builds to the south with dry and fair
weather into Wed. Another frontal system then approaches for the
latter half of the week.

 

 

Yes with higher gusts

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Which model has the pressure field broad ? The Euro sure don't. I don't get why people are just dismissing the possibility of this storm to be strong. High winds and heavy rain will be the factor with coastal floodibg.

Are you going to evacuate?

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