October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[mob1]

  On 10/29/2017 at 10:58 AM, CIK62 said:

GFS LAMP for JFK has max. gusts 36mph. near 8PM.  

 

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Crazy,  most models have higher sustained winds than that at JFK. Here's the latest HRRR, not exactly the best at this range but let's see how it plays out. 

[Cfa]

Bright flashes and loud thunder coming from east of here. It’s been over a month since my last thunderstorm, hope we get more today.

[bluewave]

We have been discussing the problems the GFS has been having with tropical interactions and systems since the upgrade.

 

There are some difference amongst the models in the westward
extent of the low track, with the 00Z GFS to the right of the
NAM and ECMWF. Model consensus and the GFS ensemble supports a
track similar to the more westward solutions and  will lean
toward the NAM with this run. Additionally, looking upstream
across Florida, the GFS seems to have had problems initializing
with multiple areas of low pressure north of Tropical Storm
Philippe.

[qg_omega]

  On 10/29/2017 at 6:04 AM, forkyfork said:

wow

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I would bet another historic bust for the Euro, it's lost in this storm

[qg_omega]

  On 10/29/2017 at 6:49 AM, Rjay said:

You can see the difference in the handling of the tropical storm from last night's run but it doesn't seem to make much of a difference in our sensible weather.

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Model is really struggling, your not bombing a low to our west without Philippe, it's been terrible with it's handling of it so far

[mob1]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:18 AM, qg_omega said:

Model is really struggling, your not bombing a low to our west without Philippe, it's been terrible with it's handling of it so far

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Just out of curiosity, what is your call for the area (I guess inland NY and NJ, NYC and Jersey coast, and LI/CT would be a good way to break it down) 

[qg_omega]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:25 AM, mob1 said:

Just out of curiosity, what is your call for the area (I guess inland NY and NJ, NYC and Jersey coast, and LI/CT would be a good way to break it down) 

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30 to 35 sustained and gusts to low 50s

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:10 AM, Cfa said:

Bright flashes and loud thunder coming from east of here. It’s been over a month since my last thunderstorm, hope we get more today.

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I see no evidence of this.

[BxEngine]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:29 AM, CoastalWx said:

I see no evidence of this.

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Storm near Glen Cove had lightning earlier, seems to have let up recently though. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:32 AM, BxEngine said:

Storm near Glen Cove had lightning earlier, seems to have let up recently though. 

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Interesting. I didn't see any on ltg detection recently. Thunder away.

[BxEngine]

Post evidence of your assertions. "Well documented" things should be easy to, well, document here. 

[BxEngine]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:34 AM, CoastalWx said:

Interesting. I didn't see any on ltg detection recently. Thunder away.

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When it was further south over the south shore i noticed it on radarscope, but it weakened as it crossed the island it seems. Wasnt much to begin with. 

[BxEngine]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:35 AM, BxEngine said:

When it was further south over the south shore i noticed it on radarscope, but it weakened as it crossed the island it seems. Wasnt much to begin with. 

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Only thing i could find. 

[NJwx85]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:27 AM, qg_omega said:

30 to 35 sustained and gusts to low 50s

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Going down with the ship I see

[cut]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:58 AM, NJwx85 said:

Going down with the ship I see

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Admirable 'sticktoitiveness'

[CoastalWx]

NYC is on the line. If the low swings in near the city, the strongest winds are in LI. In fact, could be a big difference in wind from EWR-JFK. I don't think damaging winds (60+) in NYC is a lock...but obviously some models show this. The HRRR sort of shows what I mean. 

[BxEngine]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:58 AM, NJwx85 said:

Going down with the ship I see

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Long island will see higher gusts but otherwise its not a terrible call. Thats not the issue. 

[psv88]

0.32 already 

[NJwx85]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:14 PM, BxEngine said:

Long island will see higher gusts but otherwise its not a terrible call. Thats not the issue. 

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I strongly feel that EWR will gust over 60.

[mob1]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:12 PM, CoastalWx said:

NYC is on the line. If the low swings in near the city, the strongest winds are in LI. In fact, could be a big difference in wind from EWR-JFK. I don't think damaging winds (60+) in NYC is a lock...but obviously some models show this. The HRRR sort of shows what I mean. 

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HRRR is ridiculous, NYC rides the line like you pointed out, but it has 70 MPH sustained winds for parts of LI (obviously overdone). Before anyone freaks out, it shows solid winds for our area betore this frame, and looks to be setting up for some crazy backside winds. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:34 PM, mob1 said:

HRRR is ridiculous, NYC rides the line like you pointed out, but it has 70 MPH sustained winds for parts of LI (obviously overdone). Before anyone freaks out, it shows solid winds for our area betore this frame, and looks to be setting up for some crazy backside winds. 

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Follow the evoluton. it swings a low up into the area and hence those winds. Verbatim, that makes sense.

[mob1]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:35 PM, CoastalWx said:

Follow the evoluton. it swings a low up into the area and hence those winds. Verbatim, that makes sense.

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The evolution is fine, the severity of the winds is what I have trouble wrapping my head around. I understand that this is a VERY anomalous event, but verbatim that's probably over 100 MPH in gusts. 

[mob1]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:46 PM, bluewave said:

This is as impressive as it gets for the HRRR.

 

 

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Insane, that's an area of 90-95 MPH gusts on the south shore. I think people are underplaying the storm, some ASOS site in LI or SNE will officially record an 80 MPH gust IMO. 

[MJO812]

6z RGEM

[North and West]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:50 PM, Snow88 said:

6z RGEM

How do the winds look for MMU?


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[MJO812]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:56 PM, North and West said:

How do the winds look for MMU?


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Very strong for LI but not that much for everyone else. This shows a boat load of rain though.

[North and West]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:58 PM, Snow88 said:

Very strong for LI but not that much for everyone else. This shows a boat load of rain though.

Thank you. I cleared out most of my leaves yesterday (don’t forget to clear our sewers and storm drains!); but the amount of rain combined with 40 mph winds concerns me regarding trees coming down.


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Convection explosion east of FLA on Intellicast satellite.

 

[MJO812]

Nam has damaging winds tonight for the area. Finally on board .

[psv88]

0.88 already