October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[bluewave]

Discuss...

[Stormlover74]

The NAM has around 3"

[bkviking]

Would’ve loved that set up a month ago with hurricanes . 500mb show deep latitudnal trough (neutral-negative) with isobars north-south—would’ve been great if Jose or Irma had encountered this

[Rtd208]

FWIW the 18z NAM is quite wet for the area and both the 12z GFS/Euro had QPF increases. 

[Rtd208]

The 18z GFS continues the wetter theme, looks like 1.5-2.0" of rain for the immediate metro area with more to the north and west.

[psv88]

Upton with the HWO, winds 45-55, 3-4" of rain 

woof

[Rtd208]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

[Stormlover74]

Seems like the gfs and nam want to have a screw zone between the heavy stuff in western nj and over LI

[qg_omega]

12 hours ago, psv88 said:

Upton with the HWO, winds 45-55, 3-4" of rain 

woof

looks very localized, can easily see an inch or less over the metro area, or double that

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seems like the gfs and nam want to have a screw zone between the heavy stuff in western nj and over LI

The heaviest rain shown on both models have been shifting around quite a bit, nothing to really worry about. This is going to be a very dynamic/convective system with strong winds, heavy rain and some severe weather possible including the chance of a tornado or two.

[qg_omega]

risk favors another under-performer. 

[Drz1111]

Boy is there an absolute ton of low level shear around.  If we get any surface-based convection during this event we're going to fire off some spinups.

[psv88]

RGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
358 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...Strong Southerly Winds Tuesday into Tuesday Night...

CTZ007>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-240400-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0008.171024T1200Z-171025T0600Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
358 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Wind Advisory,
which is in effect from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday.

* Winds...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph.

* Timing...Developing Tuesday morning and continuing through the
  evening, ending from west to east at night.

* Impacts...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may
  result. Travel will be impacted over bridges and overpasses.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

[Brian5671]

18z NAM

[NJwx85]

Don't expect widespread storm coverage. Things look slightly better than your average hit or miss. The Southerly flow will increase the threat for training, so those areas that do experience the more organized activity could see quite the deluge. 

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, qg_omega said:

risk favors another under-performer. 

We're not relying on sunshine and CAPE with this so, it's mostly high low-level shear combined with high moisture.

Actually this can over perform either right on us or just to our east. 

[CIK62]

GFS and CMC keep going back and forth with which system will be worse, 23rd or 30th.

CMC has full 980mb. TS here---60mph. and 4"

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017102312&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=0

[forkyfork]

the best amounts will be in training south-north bands and knowing where they will happen is close to impossible right now

[Juliancolton]

Does anyone know anything about this Swiss model? Seems wet.

[Drz1111]

This is about as high as low level shear gets around here in a convective environment and models have been catching up to obs.  If this were Sept we'd be having a tornado outbreak, at least by our standards - as it is we're still probably looking at a couple of weak TORs like they saw in the Carolinas today.

[Drz1111]

The hodos for tomorrow are....something.  Long and hooked like a porn stars schlong.  We get ANY surface based instability and it is going to be one hell of a party.

[Rtd208]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[dmillz25]

Winds are pretty damn gusty right now.

[ForestHillWx]

Gross humidity levels with mist to light rain, some decent wind gusts.  

[WeatherFeen2000]

Wind gusts few trees down in the Bronx. One on gun hill road causing the train delays

[bluewave]

Breezy Point gusting to 47 mph.

Breezy Point     N/A     68 N/A N/A S38G47   

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Breezy Point gusting to 47 mph.

Breezy Point     N/A     68 N/A N/A S38G47   

Aptly named it seems.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Aptly named it seems.

True. It's great to see the new sites in place down by the beaches so we can pick up the strongest gusts.

[Brian5671]

[Brian5671]

Looks like a narrow jackpot-Models have been fairly steady with a NYC east JP for the last few days