raindancewx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The European has now shown, for a couple runs in a row a major rain/snow event in the 6-10 day time frame for S. NM. This is relatively consistent with some of the research that says after a 20 point SOI drop, in a La Nina, within three days, you tend to get a big system over the SW in around 10-days. We went from +35.9 on 3/17 to -7.3 on 3/19, which is an unbelievable drop, and associated with a tropical system impacting Darwin directly. I've literally never seen a model show this much precipitation for NM, even ten days out, in a non-Summer month. Most of it is day nine, will be interesting to see if it is still there tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 Most models are showing a deep low in the Southwest, which would, at the least, be a good synoptic storm for Colorado's mountains, and probably Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico. A couple of the runs of the GFS showed a lot of snow for Denver. So there's definitely something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 So far today, the Los Angeles metro area has gotten 0.5" to 1" of rain with 1-3" in the nearby mountains Here's the percent of normal precip in the southwest. This is looking like California has had some significant rain and heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I just got back from a trip to San Jose this week, and the mountains are the greenest that I can recall in a long, long time. And it was raining much of the time I was there. Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Real question is...will it ever rain in Amarillo? They're legitimately at 0.01" since mid-October 2017. We hit 70F yesterday around 4 pm, and then 75F today, our first 70s of the year, so time for big winter/spring storms is running out. The GFS hints that the 3/29 system (if it is real) might be the first real shot at 0.05" or 0.10" in Amarillo since October. April often looks like January but with the pattern shifted West, so I think its a pretty dry/warm month - if that system doesn't verify I really think they could make it into May without anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 Diamond Peaks Cameron Pass trail/ parking area. Nokhu Crags as seen from the East Nokhu Crags as seen from the bend in the road Mt. Richthofen as seem from Cameron Pass parking area Nokhu Crags as seen from Nokhu Crags parking area possibly Iron Mountain as seen from the bend in the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Nice pics Chinook. The early next week storm looks meh for Denver area now. Bigger for southern CO and northern NM. They need it very badly down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 25, 2018 Author Share Posted March 25, 2018 Two storm systems from Monday to Thursday should be in the range of 0.3"-0.7" for Denver metro (mostly rain). Chance of heavy snow for the Palmer Divide. I wonder if any of this will change over to heavy snow for Denver. This storm will be about 0.1"-0.4" for Larimer County and Cheyenne WY, which is disappointing. Total values of 0.2"-0.8" are likely for other areas of eastern Colorado, mostly rain. I wonder if my area will get greater than 0.50" for this whole month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 Nino 1.2 has cooled tremendously again lately, not a good sign for the West in April. Cold Nino 1.2 is usually a very dry/hot pattern for almost the entire West, and the CFS has been going to a torch/dry pattern again for our region. The system in a few days at least looks like it will bring some rain and snow to much of New Mexico and the Southwest. We've had a couple Springs down here with legitimately 0.00-0.10" of precipitation, that at least looks unattainable this year if the next system delivers anything, since we're already at 0.09" for March. I hope it over-performs a bit and we finally get a wet March in the city, but its not looking likely at this point. The MJO should wake up again in the next week and do the 7-8-1-2 dance again, so at least it will turn somewhat colder if we get to 2 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 One more nice over-performer for much of the Denver Metro, both in the WE and snow accumulation departments! Nice to see after a crappy astronomical winter, though too warm to XC ski on. We got 5"+ of heavy wet snow (may have been 6" if I had remembered to set the board outside!) after a good 0.2" of rain. Past couple years it seems that spring is winter, summer is oven, fall is summer with scattered winter (October 8-9 anyone?), and winter is dark cool fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 We got 0.09" today in the city. Clinched our 11th dry March in a row. I should have stuck with my theory, it just does not rain/snow heavily here near the solar minimum, it gets more significant statistically every year, and the effect only exists in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 28, 2018 Author Share Posted March 28, 2018 My area had rain, and it just changed to snow, with somewhat large snowflakes. Maybe this will accumulate on the grass by evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 Some of the organic indicators are hinting at a big, maybe pretty cold system for much of the West mid-month. Will be probably be a big severe weather event too. Last year, we had snow on 4/29 (0.7", it stuck!) in the city after a warm winter. The date of the last snowfall here varies meaningfully between the low solar/high solar years, low solar years are ~4x more likely to see a final snow after 4/7, and since I tested 53 v. 33 years in a difference of proportions test, it isn't likely to be due to chance (p is 0.02 or something). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 29, 2018 Author Share Posted March 29, 2018 My area got about 1" of sloppy snow, with most likely 0.35" combined rain and snow. All in afternoon, normally the warmest part of the day. The GFS runs have been showing a deep 500mb low in the West at about 264-276 hrs. (not quite mid-April) It could be interesting to see if this feature remains consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 30, 2018 Author Share Posted March 30, 2018 Snow in the next 84 hrs may include Minneapolis, the Wyoming rockies, Baltimore(?), Kansas City(?), St Louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Having lived in Philly and Allentown PA for a while, more likely that the cities will miss out and the highlands (WV mtns, SW PA, Poconos) will get some. It's really too late in the season for the coastal plain to get anything more than a wet flake or two in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 SOI went from -7.7 in February to +8.4 in March. Only similar transitions in Feb-Mar since 1931? 1935, 1937, 1947, 2013....Not exactly a warm look to April nationally (cold East/hot West look). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 In the next several days, models differ on exact details of snow, but all agree that snow will occur near in the Midwest, Northeast, and northern Rockies. On average, there will be a big boundary of cold air and warm air, as shown on this 5-day anomaly plot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 3, 2018 Author Share Posted April 3, 2018 recent GFS runs say there will be snow and about 30 degrees on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Chinook said: recent GFS runs say there will be snow and about 30 degrees on Friday Sounds like a cold opening day at Coors Field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 This would be highly beneficial if we got this much precip in the next 5 days, maybe 1" of snow or better for the metro areas. This could be 20" of snow at 10000-12000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Looks like mid-late week next week CO will be on the hairy edge of very warm/dry/fiery and cool/upslope/??moist. Any thoughts about where the dividing line will be? Things have gone back and forth a bit the past few weeks. I have 20 people coming into town on 4/11 for a meeting- part of me wants them to have easy travels and part of me wants to show them springtime in Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 6, 2018 Author Share Posted April 6, 2018 We have had a few cool and windy days recently, but not today. The models continue to show rain changing to snow for my area tomorrow. I think April 11th should be pretty warm for your guests. Maybe they will be surprised by the low relative humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Some incredible cold in MT and ND this morning. The coldest temp I found was -6 in Plentywood, MT. The coldest wind chill I found was -25 in Bottineau, ND (temp -2 with a 20 mph NW wind). Not bad for April 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 I am starting to get hopeful that today's event will over perform up here in the foothills. We already have an inch on the ground and intensity has been steadily ramping. Forecast is 1-3 thru Saturday early a.m., but I have my fingers crossed for 5-6". EDIT: Just noticed that the forecast has been officially bumped to 3-5, so I may not be far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 6, 2018 Author Share Posted April 6, 2018 We have already gotten about 1" of snow, perhaps with more than 0.10" of liquid. Temperature dropped to 25. Radar looks pretty darn good in the foothills/mountains. The cold air didn't really get to Walden, CO - it's still 37 degrees there at 8000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 It does look good for areas north of Denver this time, with plenty of energy yet to come this afternoon. ValpoVike and neighbors in the foothills should have some good stuff. There's that high reflectivity showing up west of Boulder that often winds up with high amounts in the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 For whatever reason it seems like March/April and Dec/Jan always seem to flip in the West for temps/precip. Suspect this will end up being a pretty good month for much of the West, save TX/NM/AZ in terms of precip. Its interesting looking at how hot/dry TX got in March with the complete lack of precipitation for five months in the panhandle. Until proven otherwise, will continue the ridge is bossiest in that zone. The heat did have trouble piercing the front range / central mountains of NM though, so we ended up with a much colder March year/year. The February SOI correlation to dryness in the NW in March beat the La Nina pretty easily - will have to remember that for future years. I had been toying with 3/2005 as an analog to March, and it ended up OK in the NE, that blotch of cold by VA with a warmer New England relatively is in a lot of big negative SOI February years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 8, 2018 Author Share Posted April 8, 2018 My place got about 1.5" of snow Friday, with possibly 0.15-0.25" of water equivalent. The temperature remained 25 through the afternoon and evening hours, making for one of the most frozen April afternoons that I can remember. The snow continued for a long time period. The mountains got two separate snow events, adding up to 12-24" above 9000 ft or 10000 ft. The warm air mass started pushing in here in the nighttime hours. Now we have downslope winds and 60 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 8, 2018 Author Share Posted April 8, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 10:43 PM, raindancewx said: I had been toying with 3/2005 as an analog to March, and it ended up OK in the NE, that blotch of cold by VA with a warmer New England relatively is in a lot of big negative SOI February years. March 2005 had a highly negative NAO, so did this past month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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