Mountain West Discussion

[raindancewx]

This isn't the exact verification, since I used 1951-2010 means in my outlook, but this is how precipitation looks roughly from what I have. Bad in the interior West, and by Amarillo. Pretty damn good for the East actually. The analogs for winter were 1932 (x2), 1943 (x3), 1944 (x3), 1996 (x3), 2005 (x3) , 2007 (x3), 2008 (x2), 2012 (x1).

https://www.scribd.com/document/361349089/Winter-2017-18-Outlook (from mid Oct!)

My temperature outlook was against 1951-2010 mean highs, will be a little while until that is verifiable.

[Chinook]

One of the interesting things in the past few days: on March 1st, GOES 17 was launched and is now headed to its testing orbit. We may GOES-17 preliminary data on the internet in about 3 months. Eventually this will be GOES-WEST and has the same technology as GOES-16 (EAST).

[mayjawintastawm]

Very crispy here, humidity 7-10% all weekend during the day. Saw a grass fire down near Parker, fortunately they hopped on it quickly with winds gusting consistently to 40 MPH. Spent the weekend watering the lawn and shrubs with a manual sprinkler. I think I'll turn on the system early this year- too bad, I really like to rely on nature and save $ but it ain't happening this Morch!

[raindancewx]

I went with 1968, 1975, 1986, 2006, 2008, 2012 as the blend for March 2018...if it verifies even half right it should be pretty warm. The one worry is the MJO is forecast to revert back to phase 2 by some of the models. Down here, I'm sure we'll be much colder year/year, but overall it does look like a fairly month nationally.

[raindancewx]

After thinking it over, Amarillo hasn't had any meaningful rain or snow (0.01" since mid-Oct) in ages, so that seems like the center point for the heat in the middle of the US during Spring. Much of the West is separated from that ridiculous dryness centered on Amarillo by big mountains, so I think the front range may actually be hotter this Spring than areas to the West. Something like this?

I grabbed my March temps/precip/snow just for kicks, its a warm, wet, somewhat snowy month in the blend? Around +2.5F for 1951-2010 locally. The March map nationally does actually look like observed anomalies through 3/5. I tried to respect Nino 1.2 for the analogs, its the coldest its been 2 months in a row now in over 30 years: since 1981 in January, since 1985 in February. Low Solar flux/Sunspots is relatively strong as a Spring temperature predictor for Montana, and the SOI doesn't hurt them, so the conditions do favor a cold March there, relative to what the map shows. Otherwise...fairly happy with it. Locally, solar activity is a good indicator for precipitation in March, as is the SOI, so I adjusted the analogs slightly for both. The models have been trying to show a major precip event sometime around 3/11-3/13 here, which is consistent with my Spring Outlook (assumed a wet period 3/7 to 3/20 based on the SOI/MJO). Nino 1.2 being colder than Nino 3.4 is actually a pretty good "cold" March indicator here if it occurs in February. A 64F March is not a bad outcome at all in a healthy Nina. The correlation between 1st 75F reading and March is nearly 0.5 as well (r-squared), so its encouraging that we'll be hitting 75F at least three weeks later than last year, when it happened on 2/10/17!

 

[finnster]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

After thinking it over, Amarillo hasn't had any meaningful rain or snow (0.01" since mid-Oct) in ages, so that seems like the center point for the heat in the middle of the US during Spring. Much of the West is separated from that ridiculous dryness centered on Amarillo by big mountains, so I think the front range may actually be hotter this Spring than areas to the West. Something like this?

I grabbed my March temps/precip/snow just for kicks, its a warm, wet, somewhat snowy month in the blend? Around +2.5F for 1951-2010 locally. The March map nationally does actually look like observed anomalies through 3/5. I tried to respect Nino 1.2 for the analogs, its the coldest its been 2 months in a row now in over 30 years: since 1981 in January, since 1985 in February. Low Solar flux/Sunspots is relatively strong as a Spring temperature predictor for Montana, and the SOI doesn't hurt them, so the conditions do favor a cold March there, relative to what the map shows. Otherwise...fairly happy with it. Locally, solar activity is a good indicator for precipitation in March, as is the SOI, so I adjusted the analogs slightly for both. The models have been trying to show a major precip event sometime around 3/11-3/13 here, which is consistent with my Spring Outlook (assumed a wet period 3/7 to 3/20 based on the SOI/MJO). Nino 1.2 being colder than Nino 3.4 is actually a pretty good "cold" March indicator here if it occurs in February. A 64F March is not a bad outcome at all in a healthy Nina. The correlation between 1st 75F reading and March is nearly 0.5 as well (r-squared), so its encouraging that we'll be hitting 75F at least three weeks later than last year, when it happened on 2/10/17!

 

Raindance,

 

Thanks for your post.  I'm not even sure what all to conclude from all you analysis, but I sure don't like what I see in terms of temp anomalies for eastern CO.  It seems CO and most of the SW will be be primed to go up in smoke (literally) this spring/summer/fall.  Much like it did in 2012.  That would be awful - I hope that doesn't happen.

[Chinook]

I have been feeling some wind gusts in the 30's and maybe mid-40's mph this afternoon. KFNL (near Loveland) had peak wind gust of 47 kt (54 mph).

[raindancewx]

The local NWS reported record dry soundings over much of NM for the date today. Current dewpoint: -13F, 49F.

The models are trying to show some kind of big precip event next week still, but its going to take a boat load of moisture to scour out this level of dryness (of course...it is more likely to produce dry, powdery snow).

 

[Chinook]

Some rare spotter-confirmed blizzard reports in South Dakota, with 50mph wind gusts reported in the same area

[raindancewx]

The GFS/European have been showing some version of this for days, would be 0.25-0.50" for the city, if not more, maybe a conversion over to snow late in the event? I don't think it will fall apart either, this has been trending up for days now. My analogs had March 12th as the single biggest day for storms, so this is kind of right on schedule. It seems to coincide with the MJO leaving phase three too, which can be a big stormy pattern down here in March. If we get 0.5", its the wettest March in the city since 2007 down here, first above-mean March since 2007 as well.

I don't know if I buy the MJO retro-grading like this, but another tour through phase two + moisture would certainly go a long way to preventing this from being a hot March. Still haven't hit 70F here. It was 24F this morning. March is about average so far v. 1981-2010.

 

 

[Chinook]

The models, in general, have some storminess for the west, particularly in the 5-10 day period. Maybe this will held the drought situations somewhat

[raindancewx]

Any precipitation over 0.40 inches in Albuquerque in March will make this the wettest March since 2007. Anything over 0.47" will be the first "above mean" March, against 1932-2017 since 2007. Anything above 0.6" or so and its the wettest March since 2005. The 30 year mean is 0.57" or something.

I was looking back at the data for last year, we had a huge torch here mid-March 2017. Mean high was 76.5F from 3/9 to 3/22. That's average for May 1...in March...for two weeks. I like ~65F for a high the next two weeks, so that alone would be a 5-6F drop off from last year. 

A blend of the SOI in February & date of the 1st 75F day does seem to predict March highs (somewhat) well down here. I don't think we get to 75F through at least the 15th, and that's already five weeks later than last year. We have yet to hit 70F officially, but its probably tomorrow or 3/10. Of course if we miss somehow...maybe not til 3/15? That would be late historically.

Do we think it will ever rain again in Amarillo or is that a pipe dream at this point?

[Chinook]

This upcoming synoptic storm may provide some decent snows for the Colorado rockies. Otherwise, there seems to be some disorganization of precipitation areas. It would be nice in eastern CO we could get over 1" of precip somehow in this late March period. Not much has happened so far in March. This is the sort of 500mb trough that would normally be expected to provide precip in the form of rain or snow.

[raindancewx]

It looks like the MJO wave is finally dying. Its been out of the circle for 90 days in a row. The days it lagged in phase 2 in Jan/Feb probably prevented this from being the warmest winter on record in the SW/NM (was 7th warmest here I think).

[mayjawintastawm]

Apropos of not much, in the past 7 months Denver has had 3.72" of precipitation. Lots of places got that much in about 7 hours back in September 2013.

[Chinook]

It definitely has been a stinker winter for Denver and nearly all the Southwest. I believe my place has had a surplus of precip from Nov. 1 to Feb. 28. I'd say that it's almost certain my place will have zero precip from Feb. 24 to Mar. 18 (see above,) which is kind of a long time, seeing as how March is supposed to be snowy.

[Chinook]

looks like somebody left the vacuum on

[raindancewx]

The SOI has had a bit of a mini-drop lately, some guy on Twitter looked at all SOI drops of 10-20 points in La Nina back to the 1990s, and it tends to result in a low over the SW at some lag if the drop is within 3 days. I think its around 7-days later, at statistically significant levels compared to lags of seven days not following a drop. A big low along the NM/CO border could be good for CO. 

This year is already the latest we've hit 70F since March 2010, our last cold March here. First 75F day is still at least a week away probably. The first 75F day is a good indicator of March highs here, currently at least five weeks later than last year (75F on 2.10.17...and then we torched in March hard: +8F).

Also, BOM has declared the La Nina dead as of its mid-March update. Will be interesting to see if NOAA follows in April or if the pattern dramatically changes soon.

[Chinook]

This upcoming (deep) low pressure on Thursday will bring light snows of 2-6" in the mountains and some rain from Cheyenne to Denver. Otherwise, most of Wyoming will get snow. Sunday morning, another low pressure should develop, with another round of generally light snow for the mountains.  I'm not even really impressed.

[mayjawintastawm]

Somehow I would not be surprised if I drove to the Gulf of Mexico and found that someone had filled it with sand. How long has it been since any moisture made it any farther NW than, say, 35N/100W?

[Chinook]

I found some snow for you. This is at about 10000 ft near Cameron Pass, Crags Campground. Snow depth is probably 4ft + at Cameron Pass, probably 3ft + at this section pictured here. 4 ft would be a bit below normal for Cameron Pass. 

Rain has developed in the Front Range area and winds have shifted to the NW in my area. The area I visited yesterday (Cameron Pass,) has had some light snow since noon today, definitely some snow accumulating above 9000 ft right now.

[mayjawintastawm]

Beautiful. Bet there are quite a few years when that cabin is not visible this time of year. We got about 0.1" of rain last night, felt good! Dogs were happy they had lots of new smells. Back to crispy today.

[raindancewx]

My highs are running 6.1F colder than last March through the 17th. It is nice having a near-normal March for once. Rio Rancho, just north of Albuquerque had 0.75" with the last storm, but Albuquerque had less, so this is probably going to count officially as our 11th dry March in a row, barring a big storm or two at the very end of the month.

Here is a look at snow anomalies to date. Montana is kind of like its own little world in the West this winter. 2005-06, 2012-13, 2008-09, 1944-45 all had some similar snow patterns. The big Nor'easters were there in 1944-45, the big southern snows were there in 2005-06 and 2008-09. Montana did well in 2008-09 and 2012-13. Reasonably happy with it.

[ValpoVike]

So happy, I got my thundersnow!  Cracks of thunder and graupel the size of Dipping Dots pouring out of the sky.  

[Indystorm]

4 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

So happy, I got my thundersnow!  Cracks of thunder and graupel the size of Dipping Dots pouring out of the sky.  

Congrats...I hope to vacation for the first time in the Estes Park area this summer.

[Chinook]

42 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

So happy, I got my thundersnow!  Cracks of thunder and graupel the size of Dipping Dots pouring out of the sky.  

That wasn't thunder, that was the sound of basketball fans' brackets imploding after Michigan State lost.

[ValpoVike]

33 minutes ago, Chinook said:

That wasn't thunder, that was the sound of basketball fans' brackets imploding after Michigan State lost.

Ha, I think UMBC-Virgina pretty much already wiped out everyone's bracket!

[Chinook]

Hey, we had some sprinkles, then it changed over to large snowflakes, (large groups of snowflakes over 1" wide!)

[mayjawintastawm]

3-4 cracks of thunder ushered in exactly 6 hours of snow, in which we received 6" of absolute paste. 32 F the entire time. Likely a few bursts of 2"/hr snowballs in there from time to time. Just about done now. Biggest snow of the season!

[Chinook]

That sounds terrific. My area had  0.35" of precip, made up of mainly 0.5" of wet snow, but perhaps some measurable rain. My car windshield had thick globs of snow and ice this morning, all the while it was a bit above freezing. I had to scrape it.