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November Long Range Disco

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

Looked at CPC AO and NAO outlooks..both really tank after 16 Nov...really tank.  PNA is also negative so not sure how that will play out.   This is good.  Lots of wedge scenarios I believe.  Yet somehow the 8-14 day outlook for temps has us slight tendency for AN temps...that outlook was issued today.

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
Sorry in advance for the slightly off topic post.

Please excuse my ignorance but HECS, MECS, etc. What do they mean? Major east coast storm? Historic east coast storm?...



Yeah, you got the idea.

Now that I type this, I realize I'm not sure, but I think it's BECS>HECS>MECS>SECS.

Biblical/Historic/Major/Significant?

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

 

Interesting...I was just checking EPS members out of curiosity after seeing the post by @losetoa6.  A signal, albeit weak, for a storm in the 10-15.  Ind members with a noticeable jump in snowfall around the region.  

ETA:  GEFS members with the same jump in the 10-15.  Dont get me wrong...not hanging my hat on it but it is something to casually monitor.

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Interesting...I was just checking EPS members out of curiosity after seeing the post by @losetoa6.  A signal, albeit weak, for a storm in the 10-15.  Ind members with a noticeable jump in snowfall around the region.  

ETA:  GEFS members with the same jump in the 10-15.  Dont get me wrong...not hanging my hat on it but it is something to casually monitor.

Yep! You never hang a hat on anything in the Mid Atlantic. If you do, you will soon find it on the floor, often stomped on by muddy feet wet from the rain that was once digital snow.

But even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then! Maybe we will have something to watch.

 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Cold first half would be better than what we've had.

Reminds me of what we saw in 76/77. Cold starting in October, really, all the way until the 1st week of FEB. Then, it was over and temps went and stayed AN the rest of the season into spring.

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Reminds me of what we saw in 76/77. Cold starting in October, really, all the way until the 1st week of FEB. Then, it was over and temps went and stayed AN the rest of the season into spring.

That reminds me of last year's winter, except it was warm the entire time

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nw baltimore wx

nw baltimore wx

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Reminds me of what we saw in 76/77. Cold starting in October, really, all the way until the 1st week of FEB. Then, it was over and temps went and stayed AN the rest of the season into spring.

I remember several winters in the 70's being very cold, and very dry.  There was also one (can't recall the year), that was very, very cold right up until we got precipitation, and then it was warm.

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RIC_WX

RIC_WX

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Euro seasonal forecast thanks to NE thread. Winter ends come Feb, but starts now! lol

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49653-countdown-to-winter-2017-2018-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4660460

 

January shows warm for AKQ and cold for LWX.  Most likely, one of those will be wrong.  But, taken verbatim, hard to see us getting out of that pattern without the Virginia piedmont getting a nasty ice storm.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RIC_WX said:

January shows warm for AKQ and cold for LWX.  Most likely, one of those will be wrong.  But, taken verbatim, hard to see us getting out of that pattern without the Virginia piedmont getting a nasty ice storm.

I believe we are seeing a good semblance of the winter pattern setting up now. I like where I sit, to my surprise as well (lol), but I believe you guys are going to have your shots too with trailing systems and systems that miss us to the south.

Maybe I'm going overboard, but I really, really like what I'm seeing.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I believe we are seeing a good semblance of the winter pattern setting up now. I like where I sit, to my surprise as well (lol), but I believe you guys are going to have your shots too with trailing systems and systems that miss us to the south.

Maybe I'm going overboard, but I really, really like what I'm seeing.

Your not the only one. Have liked what I was seeing develop for the last couple of weeks and to be honest it looks as it may be even better then I envisioned. Let's see how the models handle the longer ranges but if they are somewhat accurate I would think fun times will be ahead post day 10.

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, mattie g said:

WTH is that?

 

12 minutes ago, Amped said:

3 week forecasts from models we've never heard of  verify 100% of the time,   unless of course, it turns out to be a fake model planted by the Russians. 

http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/bsr.php

EDT: Oops!

http://blog.organicforecasting.com/

 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Just saw the Euro . Strengthens the day 5-6 vort decent and a nice pass as well . Too warm for a snowstorm but what a nice coastal storm with wind and heavy rain verbatim...with temps low to mid 40s 

The end of the run looks really good as well.

As I said in the other (wrong) thread, the day 10 vort seems to have no where to go but south of us. It's bringing cold air with it, so although it would have to be perfect in every way, there's a chance for some of us to at least see our first flakes of the season. 

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted

I’m completely disinterested in looking for flakes at this point. Get to Thanksgiving and then I’ll gain interest in what’s happening a week out. More than anything, I want to see decently chilly air, blues and reds in the right places, and good storm tracks at this point. Not until December rolls around will I melt down as we get screwed.

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
Just now, mattie g said:

I’m completely disinterested in looking for flakes at this point. Get to Thanksgiving and then I’ll gain interest in what’s happening a week out. More than anything, I want to see decently chilly air, blues and reds in the right places, and good storm tracks at this point. Not until December rolls around will I️ melt down as we get screwed.

Same with me. I wanna some good cold air masses this month. It's unlikely that even with an Arctic Blast that we can get a white Thanksgiving, or even snow during the month of November. Baby steps

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Same with me. I wanna some good cold air masses this month. It's unlikely that even with an Arctic Blast that we can get a white Thanksgiving, or even snow during the month of November. Baby steps

Don't be a negative Ned...sure it's hard but so is a moist turkey...but we gotta try..last year was awful

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