BristowWx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Looked at CPC AO and NAO outlooks..both really tank after 16 Nov...really tank. PNA is also negative so not sure how that will play out. This is good. Lots of wedge scenarios I believe. Yet somehow the 8-14 day outlook for temps has us slight tendency for AN temps...that outlook was issued today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Sorry in advance for the slightly off topic post. Please excuse my ignorance but HECS, MECS, etc. What do they mean? Major east coast storm? Historic east coast storm?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Sorry in advance for the slightly off topic post. Please excuse my ignorance but HECS, MECS, etc. What do they mean? Major east coast storm? Historic east coast storm?...Yeah, you got the idea. Now that I type this, I realize I'm not sure, but I think it's BECS>HECS>MECS>SECS. Biblical/Historic/Major/Significant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, you got the idea. Now that I type this, I realize I'm not sure, but I think it's BECS>HECS>MECS>SECS. Biblical/Historic/Major/Significant? Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Interesting...I was just checking EPS members out of curiosity after seeing the post by @losetoa6. A signal, albeit weak, for a storm in the 10-15. Ind members with a noticeable jump in snowfall around the region. ETA: GEFS members with the same jump in the 10-15. Dont get me wrong...not hanging my hat on it but it is something to casually monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: Interesting...I was just checking EPS members out of curiosity after seeing the post by @losetoa6. A signal, albeit weak, for a storm in the 10-15. Ind members with a noticeable jump in snowfall around the region. ETA: GEFS members with the same jump in the 10-15. Dont get me wrong...not hanging my hat on it but it is something to casually monitor. Yep! You never hang a hat on anything in the Mid Atlantic. If you do, you will soon find it on the floor, often stomped on by muddy feet wet from the rain that was once digital snow. But even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then! Maybe we will have something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 5 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: WTH is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Euro seasonal forecast thanks to NE thread. Winter ends come Feb, but starts now! lol https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49653-countdown-to-winter-2017-2018-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4660460 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Euro seasonal forecast thanks to NE thread. Winter ends come Feb, but starts now! lol https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49653-countdown-to-winter-2017-2018-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4660460 Cold first half would be better than what we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Cold first half would be better than what we've had. Reminds me of what we saw in 76/77. Cold starting in October, really, all the way until the 1st week of FEB. Then, it was over and temps went and stayed AN the rest of the season into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Reminds me of what we saw in 76/77. Cold starting in October, really, all the way until the 1st week of FEB. Then, it was over and temps went and stayed AN the rest of the season into spring. That reminds me of last year's winter, except it was warm the entire time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Reminds me of what we saw in 76/77. Cold starting in October, really, all the way until the 1st week of FEB. Then, it was over and temps went and stayed AN the rest of the season into spring. I remember several winters in the 70's being very cold, and very dry. There was also one (can't recall the year), that was very, very cold right up until we got precipitation, and then it was warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Intriguing look to end today's 12z ECMWF run. A bit warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Euro seasonal forecast thanks to NE thread. Winter ends come Feb, but starts now! lol https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49653-countdown-to-winter-2017-2018-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4660460 I will take that any day of the week... and twice on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 25 minutes ago, George BM said: Intriguing look to end today's 12z ECMWF run. A bit warm though. That's a cold front followed by partly cloudy, windy, and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Euro seasonal forecast thanks to NE thread. Winter ends come Feb, but starts now! lol https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49653-countdown-to-winter-2017-2018-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4660460 January shows warm for AKQ and cold for LWX. Most likely, one of those will be wrong. But, taken verbatim, hard to see us getting out of that pattern without the Virginia piedmont getting a nasty ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 minute ago, RIC_WX said: January shows warm for AKQ and cold for LWX. Most likely, one of those will be wrong. But, taken verbatim, hard to see us getting out of that pattern without the Virginia piedmont getting a nasty ice storm. I believe we are seeing a good semblance of the winter pattern setting up now. I like where I sit, to my surprise as well (lol), but I believe you guys are going to have your shots too with trailing systems and systems that miss us to the south. Maybe I'm going overboard, but I really, really like what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I believe we are seeing a good semblance of the winter pattern setting up now. I like where I sit, to my surprise as well (lol), but I believe you guys are going to have your shots too with trailing systems and systems that miss us to the south. Maybe I'm going overboard, but I really, really like what I'm seeing. Your not the only one. Have liked what I was seeing develop for the last couple of weeks and to be honest it looks as it may be even better then I envisioned. Let's see how the models handle the longer ranges but if they are somewhat accurate I would think fun times will be ahead post day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 3 hours ago, mattie g said: WTH is that? 3 week forecasts from models we've never heard of verify 100% of the time, unless of course, it turns out to be a fake model planted by the Russians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 3 hours ago, mattie g said: WTH is that? 12 minutes ago, Amped said: 3 week forecasts from models we've never heard of verify 100% of the time, unless of course, it turns out to be a fake model planted by the Russians. http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/bsr.php EDT: Oops! http://blog.organicforecasting.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 I'm no expert but that LR GEFS is still looking sweet. About as good a pattern as we have seen. Modeled of course but very sweet looking when every click keeps the trough locked in through most of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 43 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just saw the Euro . Strengthens the day 5-6 vort decent and a nice pass as well . Too warm for a snowstorm but what a nice coastal storm with wind and heavy rain verbatim...with temps low to mid 40s The end of the run looks really good as well. As I said in the other (wrong) thread, the day 10 vort seems to have no where to go but south of us. It's bringing cold air with it, so although it would have to be perfect in every way, there's a chance for some of us to at least see our first flakes of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 I’m completely disinterested in looking for flakes at this point. Get to Thanksgiving and then I’ll gain interest in what’s happening a week out. More than anything, I want to see decently chilly air, blues and reds in the right places, and good storm tracks at this point. Not until December rolls around will I melt down as we get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 All the way through 384 GEFS is just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Just now, mattie g said: I’m completely disinterested in looking for flakes at this point. Get to Thanksgiving and then I’ll gain interest in what’s happening a week out. More than anything, I want to see decently chilly air, blues and reds in the right places, and good storm tracks at this point. Not until December rolls around will I️ melt down as we get screwed. Same with me. I wanna some good cold air masses this month. It's unlikely that even with an Arctic Blast that we can get a white Thanksgiving, or even snow during the month of November. Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Same with me. I wanna some good cold air masses this month. It's unlikely that even with an Arctic Blast that we can get a white Thanksgiving, or even snow during the month of November. Baby steps Don't be a negative Ned...sure it's hard but so is a moist turkey...but we gotta try..last year was awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: All the way through 384 GEFS is just wow. BN temps almost wall to wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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