November Long Range Disco

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

-NAO looks good on models. Right time of the year. This isn't a switch-over Jan10-15 to something all February type pattern. It's every 10 days new cold shot type pattern. 95-96 is decent analog, not because of the Nina. It has that Ninadisconnect feel, you know?

[poolz1]

For those interested..Some thoughts from DT

https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, it's only Nov 6th so it's not like we're tracking long range patterns for snow. We're just laying the table cloth down. Still gotta set the table before we can eat anything. Looks like silver and fine China instead of paper plates and plastic sporks the next couple weeks. lol

Yeah I need to just stop looking at the run now. The more I do the more I realize it really couldn't get much better at this juncture. Scary lol.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Look at how the ridge just moves into Alaska. A lot of time this gets stopped short. It's pretty easy to have arctic blocking later on if this keeps happening.

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

For those interested..Some thoughts from DT

https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/

Those euro weekly images look beautiful for early December.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Those euro weekly images look beautiful for early December.

Yea man, that is basically NSFW quadruple X kinda stuff right there. A 7 day mean like that ANY time during DJF would imply above to much above normal chances at snow. 

The weeklies are no better than any other long lead guidance. If the regular 15 day ens flip to crap the weeklies will follow. The one takeaway is persistence though. Weeklies support the idea that blocking could hang around for a while if it gets going. That's usually how it works so nothing groundbreaking but better than a quick break down followed by a quick meltdown. lol

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m 100% on board for The Panic Room being under capacity. Lord knows, we need snow. Things clearly look great on the models now and I hope it materializes.

But the models giveth, and the models taketh away.  

Give me a high five and pat me on my backside when a -EPO, -AO, or west based -NAO produces my first December snow since 2013. Until then, I’m just a casual observer, looking forward to my first blizzard or big LE chase opportunity of the season.

Why December?  Let’s go big and push for a white ThanksgIving.  It can happen.  Usually in Vermont or Maine...but what the heck..we can do this.  

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m 100% on board for The Panic Room being under capacity. Lord knows, we need snow. Things clearly look great on the models now and I hope it materializes.

But the models giveth, and the models taketh away.  

Give me a high five and pat me on my backside when a -EPO, -AO, or west based -NAO produces my first December snow since 2013. Until then, I’m just a casual observer, looking forward to my first blizzard or big LE chase opportunity of the season.

It's here bro. When it's 25 come Saturday morning, with a nice breeze, and you're out getting your gf whatever she wants at 7am, you won't be needing to think about the ensembles and waiting for winter to arrive.  Lol

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I know the cold is coming, but you know none of us are here for that! Cold without snow is like [censored] [censored] [censored]. 

I agree, but you know (by now) the routine around here. We need a cold pattern to get established first, especially early in the season. Then an attack from the southwest, and hope the cold can reestablish itself once the snow stops.

By the way, anyone notice JI posting lately?

[SteveVa]

I knew something was up when I saw that Nov long range thread is hot 

Weeklies look nearly perfect for late Nov and early Dec. It can only go downhill from here lol

[Cobalt]

Just now, SteveVa said:

I knew something was up when I saw that Nov long range thread is hot 

Weeklies look nearly perfect for late Nov and early Dec. It can only go downhill from here lol

You mean uphill, right? It's only too much when glaciers start forming in the D.C region. Then we can be concerned 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Looks like mowing season ends Saturday!

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The +PDO is making a bit of a comeback. Probably neutral right now but far from a -PDO. AMO looks good too. Snowman won't be coming around much for a while. He's got nothing to post about right now AT ALL. lol

 

 

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Welcome aboard.  Plenty of seats to choose from now, but that may not last long with each model run. Lol

The last week has been all good news. We are seeing everything that we were waiting to break do so in our favor for once this time of year. I am also feeling a lot more optimistic then I was a month or even a week ago.  But I am still cautious.  A long way to go. I'm not celebrating a pre season victory.   But so far the trends look up. 

[Mason Dixon]

Nice to see everyone upbeat and happy in here. I guess the models backing down or post from snowman19 would be the only thing  that could ruin it . 

[showmethesnow]

Don't look now but the GEFS long range says we may have our first semi-legitimate tracking opportunity coming up. I say semi-legit because it is in the long range, roughly centered around day 14 or so. The last 5 runs have steadily improved on the look during this time period. Lets see if this year the GEFS can break that 10 day barrier that seemed to be ever elusive last winter. The EPS also has begun to show signs that it likes this period too. The control run actually drops a deep closed 500mb low underneath our region into the OBX region. Not much snow showing up on the maps though except for the EPS control run which I am hugging. Control throws 3 inches into DC, 4-5 into Baltimore and the northern counties (Caroll, Balt, Harford, Cecil) jackpot with 6-9 inches. Central Pennsylvania is the big winner with 2+ feet of snow. 

[pasnownut]

13 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, it's only Nov 6th so it's not like we're tracking long range patterns for snow. We're just laying the table cloth down. Still gotta set the table before we can eat anything Looks like silver and fine China instead of paper plates and plastic sporks the next couple weeks. lol

 

Bob, being a guy who loves analogies.....I truly love your way with words.

 

Nut

[Cobalt]

GEFS consistently showing cold through next Thursday, a brief warmup, and then another cold shot coming in for Thanksgiving week. I like our chances!

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GEFS consistently showing cold through next Thursday, a brief warmup, and then another cold shot coming in for Thanksgiving week. I like our chances!

loving that pattern.  actually use the fireplace on Thanksgiving...I will give thanks.  need to get something to slow down a bit and dig. 

[attml]

We're screwed!  http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-woolly-bears-20150922-story.html

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

That timeframe looks ripe as you said and also ops and ensembles have been hinting at day 6ish timeframe on and off for days.  A vort diving down on the heels of our weekend cold snap with a mini banana high in place . Right now its weak and to north but If that vort trends stronger and further south we just might get lucky . Something I've been watching. Higher elevations would be favored of course.

Still time, but the look the Euro, EPS had for the day 6 time period has steadily gotten worse. As you said we need to see that start trending deeper and stronger for there to be any hope for anyone outside of the mountains for our region.

[NorthArlington101]

Still time, but the look the Euro, EPS had for the day 6 time period has steadily gotten worse. As you said we need to see that start trending deeper and stronger for there to be any hope for anyone outside of the mountains for our region.

Yeah, I just ran through all the ens as well. Not much to see there. We've definitely lost snowstorms at Day 6, so I guess hypothetically the reverse would have to be possible. Maybe.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Yeah, I just ran through all the ens as well. Not much to see there. We've definitely lost snowstorms at Day 6, so I guess hypothetically the reverse would have to be possible. Maybe.

 

Couple of days ago I thought that time frame might have a better shot of throwing a little snow in the air for some of us then the current setup. Now, not so much. 6 days though, guess we will see.

[Bob Chill]

It takes a heck of a lot of things to line up to get accum snow in Nov in these parts. It's really hard to get the track right because even with blocking, it's still Nov and climo track for stronger storms will be NW of us way more often than not. Jet starts having an easier time pressing south once we get close to and beyond the holiday. 

Getting good snow in Nov (especially the first 3 weeks) is kinda like April. It can happen but you need the entire galaxy of stars to line up. EPS looks stupid good d10-15 though. I pray that's a met winter preview of what's on tap in DJF. lol

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

 EPS looks stupid good d10-15 though. I pray that's a met winter preview of what's on tap in DJF. lol

That -NAO is hawt. GEFS has it too. Haven’t seen a NAO block like that in the cold season for a long time. If this was 4-6 weeks from now, it would MECSy.

[BristowWx]

45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That -NAO is hawt. GEFS has it too. Haven’t seen a NAO block like that in the cold season for a long time. If this was 4-6 weeks from now, it would MECSy.

Feel like we are wasting it but I guess we can’t be too picky.  Should at least keep things seasonable into turkey day...if it really happens.  

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Feel like we are wasting it but I guess we can’t be too picky.  Should at least keep things seasonable into turkey day...if it really happens.  

It will probably do little good in the short term other than keep temps on the chilly side. The hope is that this becomes a feature that sticks around for at least the first half of winter. If the EPS and (rolling it forward) the weeklies have the right idea, mid December could be pretty interesting.

[evaporativecooler]

36 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Feel like we are wasting it but I guess we can’t be too picky.  Should at least keep things seasonable into turkey day...if it really happens.  

It's good for preconditioning lakes for freeze up (most important part of winter imo). Gotta get the entire column down to 39 degrees. 

[frd]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It will probably do little good in the short term other than keep temps on the chilly side. The hope is that this becomes a feature that sticks around for at least the first half of winter. If the EPS and (rolling it forward) the weeklies have the right idea, mid December could be pretty interesting.

NAO blocks tend to last what, like 20 to 25 days ? Whats the average ? And we be interesting to see if we get a HA event when the NAO goes the other way. 

I read that,  and must know this,  but if we get a drop like this now it should repeat later in the cold season. If not January , then Feb.

On a related note, Tip in the New England dicussion stated he feels there are things are work ( - WPO , Asia , etc. ) that would reload the pattern after going neutral for while . 

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

56 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Feel like we are wasting it but I guess we can’t be too picky.  Should at least keep things seasonable into turkey day...if it really happens.  

I wouldn't worry about that at all. There's a fairly strong correlation in Nov and/or Dec with an anomalous AO. Almost every Nov with a mean AO of -1.2 or lower had a -AO December as well. Same goes with December. A strong -AO in December will also have a -AO in Jan 8 out of 10 times. Or vice versa as we've seen for 4 straight winters...lol

I look at the what's being advertised as a possible clue to how blocking will evolve over winter. We'll have a good idea if the current plunge in the AO/NAO domain has some legs within 2 weeks. I'm feeling pretty optimistic about blocking in general this winter. 

[mitchnick]

The tip off to blocking this winter for me was that anomalous block west/north of Alaska that was plastered on every model for a long time. It would move around run to run, but it was always there. As the season matures, I think it moves into a better spot. But even if it tends to stay where it is, the trough to the south of it is pumping/raising heights around the Pole, which the models are finding homes for over Greenland and adjacent areas in and around the arctic circle.