November Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z GFS is darn impressive looking at the end lol. That would be a pretty cold airmass moving in with that ridge popping off the west coast and the monster ridge over GL and adjacent areas of Canada. Those reds though!

All guidance agrees on losing the +ao/nao by d5-6 now so that seems locked in time. I don't expect thing to flip to strong stable blocking or anything but what happens over the next 3 weeks is going to provide some insight to how we enter met winter. 

I see no signs that Nov is going to look like the CanSips in general which is interesting. At least not in the eastern conus and the high latitudes. However, the area of BN heights in the pac nw is showing up. Not a big deal compared to how the CanSips looks in the nao domain.  

 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Now that I am back from this weekends camping trip and pig roast, hell of a good time I might add, thought i would revisit my post from last week. 

I still like my thoughts on the possible flip in the CONUS from the mean trough/west and mean ridging/east that we have had. At this point am getting somewhat confident we see this completely transition over in the next 2 to 3 weeks. As far as this possibly being transitory or a semi permanent pattern for the winter all I will say is watching the models and the evolution leads me to somewhat favor that this will be a stable pattern shift. And barring a complete mid winter breakdown of the pattern would not be surprised that ridging/west and troughing/east is what we predominately see for the winter.

I also still like my thoughts on a possible shift in the Pacific. At this time we see a GOA trough with strong ridging to its west through the straits. I now believe there is a decent chance we see that flip to ridging through Alaska with the trough to its west. Though weak, we do have a +PDO signature at this time in the Pacific and it would possibly suggest that we see this flip but on its own wasn't enough to convince me. But now I am seeing some indications that we will see a change within the chaotic PAC jet that actually argues for this. At this point we are probably looking at the 2/3 week period time if in fact this does occur.  The +PDO  would also suggest we see a +PNA in the near future not to mention it also lends credence to my thoughts on a shift within the CONUS listed above. 

As far as the AO? Still like my thoughts on a -AO because I have yet to see any strengthening of the PV for the reasons I have posted  quite often even though the models keep trying in the longer range. The NAO is the one thing I am not sure about at this time. If we in fact see the changes I have listed above I would think the pattern would then argue for a -NAO. Doesn't mean we would get it, but I would think it would favor it.

So not even a week later and things look much brighter. But I have been through too many winters and know that what we are seeing now can change in a heartbeat and quite often does. But at this point in time I still like my thoughts that we will seriously be tracking snow possibilities in mid/late November. 

 

 

I agree with your post overall and I like how things are progressing. As for the bolded above, yes very likely in the far western highlands, but for most of the rest of us I would think early to mid December is more realistic, if what is currently being advertised materializes and we get some progression/adjustments in the e/n Pac.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All guidance agrees on losing the +ao/nao by d5-6 now so that seems locked in time. I don't expect thing to flip to strong stable blocking or anything but what happens over the next 3 weeks is going to provide some insight to how we enter met winter. 

I see no signs that Nov is going to look like the CanSips in general which is interesting. At least not in the eastern conus and the high latitudes. However, the area of BN heights in the pac nw is showing up. Not a big deal compared to how the CanSips looks in the nao domain.  

 

Yeah I would be surprised if we see NA blocking develop and just lock in. I am a bit "concerned" there might be more persistence with the less than ideal look out west though. Hopefully just bad memories from last winter lol.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah that’s a sign of climate change, not blocking.

No, its just not reporting snowfall on frozen seas. Look, it's like that all over the maps.

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I would be surprised if we see NA blocking develop and just lock in. I am a bit "concerned" there might be more persistence with the less than ideal look out west though. Hopefully just bad memories from last winter lol.

No your concern is well founded and rational. Blocking doesn’t seem to just lock in for long. I must admit this is looking better for Turkey day as maybe we can avoid AN temps.  Maybe.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I would be surprised if we see NA blocking develop and just lock in. I am a bit "concerned" there might be more persistence with the less than ideal look out west though. Hopefully just bad memories from last winter lol.

Eps shows how legit blocking can defeat a -pna d13-15. Interesting stuff keeps on showing up. Sig jump from last run so could just be a blip but a lot of ens members must be seeing cold in the east to have a mean like this. We've had a lot of days in a row of good looking lr progs. I keep waiting for a shoe that isn't dropping

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps shows how legit blocking can defeat a -pna d13-15. Interesting stuff keeps on showing up. Sig jump from last run so could just be a blip but a lot of ens members must be seeing cold in the east to have a mean like this. We've had a lot of days in a row of good looking lr progs. I keep waiting for a shoe that isn't dropping

Yes don’t think -PNA is awful if, and only if you have good blocking...deep troughs with +PNA good for cold but can be dry.  Cold dry is not that exciting.  I like CAD and overrunning.  

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps shows how legit blocking can defeat a -pna d13-15. Interesting stuff keeps on showing up. Sig jump from last run so could just be a blip but a lot of ens members must be seeing cold in the east to have a mean like this. We've had a lot of days in a row of good looking lr progs. I keep waiting for a shoe that isn't dropping

Yup. We probably wont see persistent, legit NA blocking though, so at some point changes out west will be necessary- otherwise it will be difficult to suppress the tendency for EC ridging for very long.

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yup. We probably wont see persistent, legit NA blocking though, so at some point changes out west will be necessary- otherwise it will be difficult to suppress the tendency for EC ridging for very long.

Unless it locks in over GL...I mean it can lock in..it’s just not something we see outside our dreams...but it’s not out of the question

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Unless it locks in over GL...I mean it can lock in..it’s just not something we see outside our dreams...but it’s not out of the question

lol

Well I suppose we are due for a winter with a persistent -NAO. Not sure we will get it though- outside of our dreams of course.  

[Bob Chill]

30 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Unless it locks in over GL...I mean it can lock in..it’s just not something we see outside our dreams...but it’s not out of the question

At this stage we just looking for tendencies or what kind of bias is showing with pressure patterns. There has been a pronounced bias towards low pressure anomalies in the ao/nao space to kick off met winter the last 3-4 years. It usually shows up during Nov too. Kinda sets the tone. Right now we're actually seeing something different for once but it's way early. If we keep seeing a tendency for sprawling hp to keep forming in the ao domain trough the month we can probably start thinking Dec won't be a disaster. It would certainly put the forecasts calling for a mild Dec at risk. Snow requires more than temps in these parts so I don't get hung up on long lead snow forecasts. Other than mod ninos, our chances of AN snow are always less than BN snow. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At this stage we just looking for tendencies or what kind of bias is showing with pressure patterns. There has been a pronounced bias towards low pressure anomalies in the ao/nao space to kick off met winter the last 3-4 years. It usually shows up during Nov too. Kinda sets the tone. Right now we're actually seeing something different for once but it's way early. If we keep seeing a tendency for sprawling hp to keep forming on the ao domain trough the month we can probably start thinking Dec won't be a disaster. It would certainly put the forecasts calling for a mild Dec at risk. Snow requires more than temps in these parts so I don't get hung up on long lead snow forecasts. Other than mod ninos, our chances of AN snow are always leas than BN snow. 

A. It's coming (blocking); 

B. I continue to love all the precip. It is a positive, albeit underrated by some,  indicator. 

[Cobalt]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

A. It's coming (blocking); 

B. I continue to love all the precip. It is a positive, albeit underrated by some,  indicator. 

The precip is for sure more promising. I mean, didn't we have a drought going into last Winter? 

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The precip is for sure more promising. I mean, didn't we have a drought going into last Winter? 

October was uber dry, as in <1" at BWI and around 1.5" in November.  So although not a drought,  dry as heck. This year,  we came through a dry period (but not as bad as last year and not as late in the year) but things clearly switched gears with the rains 8 days ago. Euro now has Bwi at almost 2 inches over the next 10 days along with a legit cold shot. This is the way decent winters begin.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

A. It's coming (blocking); 

B. I continue to love all the precip. It is a positive, albeit underrated by some,  indicator. 

Red flags have been strangely absent the last 4-5 days. I mentioned this a few days ago and it keeps showing up run after run. Sprawling Siberian HP in Nov is right out of Cohen's playbook for a -ao winter. That feature has been totally unanimous for at least 5 days. Early signs are as good as we can ask for. Everything started looking better right after the CanSips kicked us in the groin. 

[poolz1]

 

[Bob Chill]

Heh, looks like the eps. The good looks keep on comin

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, looks like the eps. The good looks keep on comin

Do you think the folks at Tropical Tidbits would mind if I used that map of theirs as a background for my family holiday photographs? Lol

That thing is Christmas right there!

[showmethesnow]

15 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I agree with your post overall and I like how things are progressing. As for the bolded above, yes very likely in the far western highlands, but for most of the rest of us I would think early to mid December is more realistic, if what is currently being advertised materializes and we get some progression/adjustments in the e/n Pac.

The smart money would be with you that the earliest we could see snow would be in December. But I never claimed to be smart and don't ask my wife about my intelligence because I am sure that is something I don't want to hear.  But I still like my thoughts on the possibility of snow in November. Though at this point looking at how the pattern is progressing I would probably favor the end of the month. 

[mitchnick]

Euro weeklies go with decent blocking weeks 3-4 extending what the esp was showing days 12-15 per NE thread. Will says week 4 almost Nino like with Alutian low.

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro weeklies go with decent blocking weeks 3-4 extending what the esp was showing days 12-15 per NE thread. Will says week 4 almost Nino like with Alutian low.

Yeah just looked at it. Really hard not to like whats being advertised overall. Persistent +heights up top, with some real improvement in the epac, especially around AK. West based neg NAO practically the whole time. Really good stuff.

[Cobalt]

GEFS shows wall to wall cold from the 8th to the 22nd. Looking good in terms of temperature for the next week or two

[poolz1]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah just looked at it. Really hard not to like whats being advertised overall. Persistent +heights up top, with some real improvement in the epac, especially around AK. West based neg NAO practically the whole time. Really good stuff.

Yup...lack of skill and all that but man, what's not to like.  It gets rid of the blue blob near AK pretty quick...as you noted as a concern.  The recurring theme throughout...trough in the east, trough in Europe, trough in Japan/Far East and -AO/NAO.  Dec 5th or bust! 

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah just looked at it. Really hard not to like whats being advertised overall. Persistent +heights up top, with some real improvement in the epac, especially around AK. West based neg NAO practically the whole time. Really good stuff.

Interesting times right now. The tanking of the AO was completely missed by all guidance at range. I'm now thinking it's a significant shift that could in fact have long term implications as we move through the month and not a hit and run.

I'm not worried about the AK trough showing up on guidance at all. The reason it's there is because low heights are getting displaced off the pole. The trop PV has to go somewhere. I'd much rather have it near AK than Siberia for now. The pattern over the next couple weeks is pretty good for cold loading in NA. Now we need the pattern to roll over and have the trop pv pinned underneath a west based -NAO as we move into Dec. lol. That would be acceptable. 

[Bob Chill]

The +PDO is making a bit of a comeback. Probably neutral right now but far from a -PDO. AMO looks good too. Snowman won't be coming around much for a while. He's got nothing to post about right now AT ALL. lol

 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interesting times right now. The tanking of the AO was completely missed by all guidance at range. I now thinking it's a significant shift that could in fact have long term implications as we move through the month and not a hit and run.

I'm not worried about the AK trough showing up on guidance at all. The reason it's there is because low heights are getting displaced off the pole. The trop PV has to go somewhere. I'd much rather have it near AK than Siberia for now. The pattern over the next couple weeks is pretty good for cold loading in NA. Now we need the pattern to roll over and have the trop pv pinned underneath a west based -NAO as we move into Dec. lol. That would be acceptable. 

True, we want it on our side of the pole. Just dont want it displaced to far S and park near the GOA. If the weeklies are close to right, we will be pretty happy heading into mid Dec. Suggestive of an EPO ridge at the end, with the west based -NAO still nailed in place lol.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interesting times right now. The tanking of the AO was completely missed by all guidance at range. I'm now thinking it's a significant shift that could in fact have long term implications as we move through the month and not a hit and run.

I'm not worried about the AK trough showing up on guidance at all. The reason it's there is because low heights are getting displaced off the pole. The trop PV has to go somewhere. I'd much rather have it near AK than Siberia for now. The pattern over the next couple weeks is pretty good for cold loading in NA. Now we need the pattern to roll over and have the trop pv pinned underneath a west based -NAO as we move into Dec. lol. That would be acceptable. 

Welcome aboard.  Plenty of seats to choose from now, but that may not last long with each model run. Lol

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

True, we want it on our side of the pole. Just dont want it displaced to far S and park near the GOA. If the weeklies are close to right, we will be pretty happy heading into mid Dec. Suggestive of an EPO ridge at the end, with the west based -NAO still nailed in place lol.

Yea, it's only Nov 6th so it's not like we're tracking long range patterns for snow. We're just laying the table cloth down. Still gotta set the table before we can eat anything. Looks like silver and fine China instead of paper plates and plastic sporks the next couple weeks. lol

[SnowLover22]

Welcome aboard.  Plenty of seats to choose from now, but that may not last long with each model run. Lol

Panic room may be off to a slow start this year *knocks on wood*


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[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Welcome aboard.  Plenty of seats to choose from now, but that may not last long with each model run. Lol

It sorta has the feel that things are setting up for legit blocking or at least avoiding a strong +AO/NAO for now. None of this means easy snow of course. You know that as well as anyone. Sure would be a breath of fresh air to walk into Dec with a general friendly pattern overhead or near by for once. Punting Dec really fookin sucks. I'll gladly wear shorts in Feb for a legit winter pattern during low sun angle season. The WDI is pretty high for a white Christmas too....