November Long Range Disco

[poolz1]

Hey now...Pretty good weeklies run tonight.  -AO/NAO start around day 20 and last almost to the end of the run...then the PNA/EPO get cranking.  I'll just hug this run...until monday's run pulls the rug.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Hey now...Pretty good weeklies run tonight.  -AO/NAO start around day 20 and last almost to the end of the run...then the PNA/EPO get cranking.  I'll just hug this run...until monday's run pulls the rug.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Polar Vortex already getting cut up by November 8

[Bob Chill]

Too bad it's not mid-late Dec. This would be a light event for the region for sure. 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

That's some real cold air lurking just north of the lakes region Gfs day 6/7 .

Mid 20s for many  next Thursday night...nice

I believe it also said like 18 degrees in upstate NY for Oct 29th about 2 weeks prior, the actual low was 47 degrees.

[mattie g]

15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

For sure...I commented   in the obs thread about same. Temps around 40 with 850s crashing.  Mid winter 2-4" event kind of setup. 

I was thinking exactly the same when I saw it. We often get nice little surprises, with a nice stripe where folks max out big time, from these kinds of systems.

[SnowLover22]

Eps has a cluster of coastal lows in the day 6-7 timeframe.  Cold air to tap probably if ...big if...something pops. 

Can you post the map?


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[NorthArlington101]

Eps has a cluster of coastal lows in the day 6-7 timeframe.  Cold air to tap probably if ...big if...something pops. 

Thiiink that was the thing I noted earlier with the GFS ens that they kinda backed off on. I just need something to track, lol.

[Cobalt]

Runs seem to be good getting better. Most likely all airports (Possibly DCA) get first freeze next Friday, even if the cold on that day starts to slowly fizzle on the next few runs

 

 

[Cobalt]

Just realized how absurd the Canadian can be. Check part of the run out

This would probably one of the coldest November cold waves of the 2010s (Which won't happen of course)

[Bob Chill]

It's not clear in regards to placement of high pressure in the ao domain space because we don't have consensus but timing of the shift towards a neutral or neg ao is around the 10th. That's seems to be a good timing benchmark to track. Gfs/Gefs remains the most agressive but the euro/eps aren't that far off. Hopefully this shift is real and if it is, hopefully it isn't transient. 

12z gfs is pretty sweet in the high latitudes again. Expansive strong hp right over the pole by d8-10. 

[BristowWx]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's not clear in regards to placement of high pressure in the ao domain space because we don't have consensus but timing of the shift towards a neutral or neg ao is around the 10th. That's seems to be a good timing benchmark to track. Gfs/Gefs remains the most agressive but the euro/eps aren't that far off. Hopefully this shift is real and if it is, hopefully it isn't transient. 

12z gfs is pretty sweet in the high latitudes again. Expansive strong hp right over the pole by d8-10. 

Hopefully if it’s real it can hold until Thanksgiving.  We don’t seem to hold cold patterns for long.  Warm ones can last a month

[RedSky]

29 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Hopefully if it’s real it can hold until Thanksgiving.  We don’t seem to hold cold patterns for long.  Warm ones can last a month  months and years

 

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, RedSky said:

 

Thank you.  That is what  meant.  We suffer for our cold.  When I hear possible cold I start looking for the inevitable pattern change.  

[Bob Chill]

58 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Hopefully if it’s real it can hold until Thanksgiving.  We don’t seem to hold cold patterns for long.  Warm ones can last a month

It's not really about having blocking set up and hold for weeks on end. Just trying to get a gauge on what type of persistence we have as we move towards Dec. We all know that a strong +ao/nao in early Dec almost always sets the tone for a long duration hostile period. When we enter Dec with hostile high latitudes you'll start seeing posts about SSW's. lol. That's when you know we're in big trouble. 

The personality of the AO/NAO can show it's face in November as well. Almost all Novembers with a mean -1.2 or lower AO have -AO Decembers (and vice versa). 

 

D10 GEFS looks good again. It starts setting up before this as well:

 

 

D11-15 mean looks good too:

 

 

 

I'm not seeing the CanSips Nov pattern showing up right now. That's pretty important. Just gotta hold on to the rails and hope guidance is correct right now. If it all flips to a disaster at some point this month I won't be surprised. 

[BristowWx]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's not really about having blocking set up and hold for weeks on end. Just trying to get a gauge on what type of persistence we have as we move towards Dec. We all know that a strong +ao/nao in early Dec almost always sets the tone for a long duration hostile period. When we enter Dec with hostile high latitudes you'll start seeing posts about SSW's. lol. That's when you know we're in big trouble. 

The personality of the AO/NAO can show it's face in November as well. Almost all Novembers with a mean -1.2 or lower AO have -AO Decembers (and vice versa). 

 

D10 GEFS looks good again. It starts setting up before this as well:

 

 

D11-15 mean looks good too:

 

 

 

I'm not seeing the CanSips Nov pattern showing up right now. That's pretty important. Just gotta hold on to the rails and hope guidance is correct right now. If it all flips to a disaster at some point this month I won't be surprised. 

That’s an amazing amount of Hp..the entire world below 50N looks below average or at least cool.  Not liking GOA very much as that is often our Achilles heel.  Looking for some holiday redemption this year.  

[frd]

 

Brrrr........

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

12z EPS has a pretty expansive area of H5 +heights over Baffin bay-Greenland, with lower heights out over the central Atlantic days 13-15. This looks like a progression from the previous few runs, so not like it is coming out of nowhere. Sort of looks like its trending towards a classic -NAO look(lol), with lower pressure to the SE out over the Atlantic, and higher pressure NW near GL. Still has weak +heights over the EC, so will have to watch and see if we start getting some blues showing up in future runs.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z EPS has a pretty expansive area of H5 +heights over Baffin bay-Greenland, with lower heights out over the central Atlantic days 13-15. This looks like a progression from the previous few runs, so not like it is coming out of nowhere. Sort of looks like its trending towards a classic -NAO look(lol), with lower pressure to the SE out over the Atlantic, and higher pressure NW near GL. Still has weak +heights over the EC, so will have to watch and see if we start getting some blues showing up in future runs.

Looks great to me. Biggest +mslp anoms are right where we want to see them. We're either getting setup for a heartbreak head fake or were going to see the first legit early season blocking since Dec 2010. Lol 

[CAPE]

33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks great to me. Biggest +mslp anoms are right where we want to see them. We're either getting setup for a heartbreak head fake or were going to see the first legit early season blocking since Dec 2010. Lol 

Yeah it seems like we never learn, lol. We fall for it every time. Its got to be real this time...

[frd]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it seems like we never learn, lol. We fall for it every time. Its got to be real this time...

I hear ya :-) 

Well, there are some things going on at the top during the next 5 day period. HM alluded to this today.  

 

[mitchnick]

My gut tells me we will see meaningful blocking this winter and in looking back the lesson will be that the strong ridging near AK I've mentioned a few times, even though not in an ideal location for us now, was the atmosphere showing its hand that we'll have blocking. What counts early in the season is the existence of blocking/ridging near the pole, and never mind its location.

There you go folks. Clear and succinct with no hedging. Here to beat me with later if we fail. Lol

[Cobalt]

GFS coming in colder compared to it's last few runs where it showed 60 degrees on next Friday. Hope to see our first freeze next week!

[CAPE]

Looking at the latest guidance, things are still progressing nicely in the NA. Could use a bit of tweaking of the ridge/trough configuration around AK going forward.

[frd]

Looking at North America Snow Depth Anomaly l from now,  and then to the bottom image, November 21, 2017.

It would appear the Southeast Canada builds snowcover, which it does over this time span,  while areas of the Nothern Plains are below what they should have on the ground by 11/21.  Also, having decent snow over to our Northwest may help us as we get into December - cold air delivery - as long as the forecasted trend continues.  

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snod_anom&rh=2017110506&fh=0&r=na&dpdt=

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snod_anom&rh=2017110506&fh=384&r=na&dpdt=

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

But west of Greenland is the arctic ocean and is ice covered where red.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/nh/20171101

[CAPE]

12z GFS is darn impressive looking at the end lol. That would be a pretty cold airmass moving in with that ridge popping off the west coast and the monster ridge over GL and adjacent areas of Canada. Those reds though!

[WxUSAF]

48 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

But west of Greenland is the arctic ocean and is ice covered where red.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/nh/20171101

Yeah that’s a sign of climate change, not blocking.

[frd]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

But west of Greenland is the arctic ocean and is ice covered where red.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/nh/20171101

Thanks Mitch,  I updated it . 

[showmethesnow]

On 10/31/2017 at 0:54 PM, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, I can understand where you are coming from. Hell, last year I came over as a negative Nellie quite often. But of course everything pointed to crap where as the only hope we had was looking beyond day 10 if not day 15 and that always goes over so well counting on that. But I think we are dealing with a whole different situation at this point.

Though on the surface it looks pretty crappy I think looking into more detail shows some promise. Take the AO for example, the current value would argue for a somewhat strong PV and yet I think that is misleading. The pv is weakened and disrupted and looks to remain that way in the near future despite the extended range smoothing that suggests otherwise. Looking in the eastern pacific/western US, the models would suggest that we lock into a somewhat stable pattern and yet when looking at the continual disruptions and weakening of the PAC jet with it gyrating everywhere I would think that argues otherwise. When this same jet is continually split into mid latitude and polar jet streaks across the CONUS with a subtropical thrown into the mix quite often that to me suggests a very unstable pattern. About the only feature that looks somewhat stable in my mind is the ridging we have been seeing around the Aleutians and into Alaska.

Over the last week I have seen the models go from hinting at a suppression of the strong SER and WAR to where as now they are actually attempting to pull the higher heights/ridging underneath us westward into the southwest. Which most likely would flip the ridging and troughing alignment through the CONUS. This can be seen with the latest runs of the Euro op that I have to question whether it may be leading the way on a possible pattern change. Looking at indice values also may be cluing us in on a pattern change. When I see a sudden huge spread develop between members on multiple indices at roughly the same time on both the GEFS and the EPS this would lead me to believe that we will have a possible pattern change. This coincidentally is centered roughly around day 7 at this time. There are other things I have seen also over the last several days but I just don't recall them at this time.

Maybe I am just being an over optimistic weenie, but at this point in time I see quite a bit that screams change in the somewhat near future and half expect that by this time next week things will look much different.

Now that I am back from this weekends camping trip and pig roast, hell of a good time I might add, thought i would revisit my post from last week. 

I still like my thoughts on the possible flip in the CONUS from the mean trough/west and mean ridging/east that we have had. At this point am getting somewhat confident we see this completely transition over in the next 2 to 3 weeks. As far as this possibly being transitory or a semi permanent pattern for the winter all I will say is watching the models and the evolution leads me to somewhat favor that this will be a stable pattern shift. And barring a complete mid winter breakdown of the pattern would not be surprised that ridging/west and troughing/east is what we predominately see for the winter.

I also still like my thoughts on a possible shift in the Pacific. At this time we see a GOA trough with strong ridging to its west through the straits. I now believe there is a decent chance we see that flip to ridging through Alaska with the trough to its west. Though weak, we do have a +PDO signature at this time in the Pacific and it would possibly suggest that we see this flip but on its own wasn't enough to convince me. But now I am seeing some indications that we will see a change within the chaotic PAC jet that actually argues for this. At this point we are probably looking at the 2/3 week period time if in fact this does occur.  The +PDO  would also suggest we see a +PNA in the near future not to mention it also lends credence to my thoughts on a shift within the CONUS listed above. 

As far as the AO? Still like my thoughts on a -AO because I have yet to see any strengthening of the PV for the reasons I have posted  quite often even though the models keep trying in the longer range. The NAO is the one thing I am not sure about at this time. If we in fact see the changes I have listed above I would think the pattern would then argue for a -NAO. Doesn't mean we would get it, but I would think it would favor it.

So not even a week later and things look much brighter. But I have been through too many winters and know that what we are seeing now can change in a heartbeat and quite often does. But at this point in time I still like my thoughts that we will seriously be tracking snow possibilities in mid/late November.