November Long Range Disco

[showmethesnow]

50 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Not only that..

 

First trackage of the season?

 

I see the MSAI would be off the charts. The Mountain Snow Advancement Index.

[NorthArlington101]

850s near 0 to  - 2 in nw burbs with precip still around

Heck, it's 0C in DC with some precip still around.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Mrefs...take note on P008 . That would surely include the "S" word.

Mrefs link:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html

It does look good.  If you investigate P01 it looks good also. C01 is great too.  Is that a control run.

[Bob Chill]

Probably not a coincidence that the cold and winter like pattern in the gefs correlates with the mjo wave running through phase 8 and 1

 

[mappy]

nice start to this thread. thanks to the heavy hitters. 

[showmethesnow]

Though you can't rule anything out through the next 10 days or so I think the best to be hoped for is probably some stray snow flakes especially N and W of the cities. Where I will keep an eye on is day 10-12 as both the GEFS and the EPS temporarily break down -NAO before returning back to that state. Many of our east coast snowstorms/rainstorms feature this breakdown from a -NAO to a neutral or positive state. Cold allowing that is probably our best shot of seeing accumulating snow.

One thing I like seeing is through the next couple of weeks on the models is the tendency for a southern/subtropical jet popping up from the gulf into the southeast Atlantic in conjunction with low pressures forming off the southeast coast. Would love to see this feature continue throughout the winter.

[Bob Chill]

Not a Nov post but seems best placed in this thread. CanSips is killing Oct so far. 

 

 

 

 

 

Pretty big shakeup coming for the rest of the month but as of right now I'm not sure the CanSips could be any more accurate for Oct. 

[Ender]

6 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Though you can't rule anything out through the next 10 days or so I think the best to be hoped for is probably some stray snow flakes especially N and W of the cities. Where I will keep an eye on is day 10-12 as both the GEFS and the EPS temporarily break down -NAO before returning back to that state. Many of our east coast snowstorms/rainstorms feature this breakdown from a -NAO to a neutral or positive state. Cold allowing that is probably our best shot of seeing accumulating snow.

One thing I like seeing is through the next couple of weeks on the models is the tendency for a southern/subtropical jet popping up from the gulf into the southeast Atlantic in conjunction with low pressures forming off the southeast coast. Would love to see this feature continue throughout the winter.

Or...hope for nothing. 

Of the handful of winters that saw measurable snowfall at IAD or Baltimore before November 20th only two had more than "normal" snowfall for the season while four were borderline abysmal: 

 

Earliest Pre-Dec Snowfall Date	Amount		Winter Season	Dec - Mar Snowfall
10/10/79	1.3		79-80	25.5
10/19/72	0.1		72-73	1.5
10/29/11	0.6		11-12	3.1
11/5/62	0.3		62-63	20.3
11/6/53	5.9		53-54	16.2
11/7/60	0.2		60-61	46.3
11/10/68	1.6		68-69	17.7
11/11/87	5.3		87-88	11.4
11/12/76	0.4		76-77	10.2
11/14/96	0.7		96-97	17.1
11/19/55	2		55-56	17.1

 

Oh and while five of those winters aren't truly abysmal (the ones with Dec - Mar snowfalls of 16" - 20"), they kinda sort'a were. Three of those five had a only one snowfall of more than 3" in Dec - Mar with multiple .5" - 2.x" snowfalls making up the balance. The other two not truly abysmal winters...each had two snowfalls between 3" and 7"...with multiple .5" to 1.5" snowfalls. 

On a brighter note, fourteen Novembers have had their earliest measurable snow between the 20th and 30th of November. Those...turn out somewhat happier: 

Earliest Pre-Dec Snowfall Date	Amount		Winter Season	Dec - Mar Snowfall
11/20/61	3.2		61-62	32
11/22/89	2.4		89-90	26.8
11/23/95	0.3		95-96	61.6
11/23/05	0.3		05-06	13.5
11/24/71	2.9		71-72	17.5
11/24/81	0.9		81-82	28.6
11/25/50	0.5		50-51	5.7
11/25/83	0.3		83-84	22.1
11/27/77	0.1		77-78	27.3
11/27/78	4		78-79	36.6
11/29/66	0.1		66-67	44.3
11/30/52	2.8		52-53	9
11/30/64	0.2		64-65	16.1
11/30/67	11.4		67-68	19.1

 

 

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, Ender said:

Or...hope for nothing. 

Of the handful of winters that saw measurable snowfall at IAD or Baltimore before November 20th only two had more than "normal" snowfall for the season while four were borderline abysmal: 

 

Earliest Pre-Dec Snowfall Date	Amount		Winter Season	Dec - Mar Snowfall
10/10/79	1.3		79-80	25.5
10/19/72	0.1		72-73	1.5
10/29/11	0.6		11-12	3.1
11/5/62	0.3		62-63	20.3
11/6/53	5.9		53-54	16.2
11/7/60	0.2		60-61	46.3
11/10/68	1.6		68-69	17.7
11/11/87	5.3		87-88	11.4
11/12/76	0.4		76-77	10.2
11/14/96	0.7		96-97	17.1
11/19/55	2		55-56	17.1

 

Oh and while five of those winters aren't truly abysmal (the ones with Dec - Mar snowfalls of 16" - 20"), they kinda sort'a were. Three of those five had a only one snowfall of more than 3" in Dec - Mar with multiple .5" - 2.x" snowfalls making up the balance. The other two not truly abysmal winters...each had two snowfalls between 3" and 7"...with multiple .5" to 1.5" snowfalls. 

On a brighter note, fourteen Novembers have had their earliest measurable snow between the 20th and 30th of November. Those...turn out somewhat happier: 

Earliest Pre-Dec Snowfall Date	Amount		Winter Season	Dec - Mar Snowfall
11/20/61	3.2		61-62	32
11/22/89	2.4		89-90	26.8
11/23/95	0.3		95-96	61.6
11/23/05	0.3		05-06	13.5
11/24/71	2.9		71-72	17.5
11/24/81	0.9		81-82	28.6
11/25/50	0.5		50-51	5.7
11/25/83	0.3		83-84	22.1
11/27/77	0.1		77-78	27.3
11/27/78	4		78-79	36.6
11/29/66	0.1		66-67	44.3
11/30/52	2.8		52-53	9
11/30/64	0.2		64-65	16.1
11/30/67	11.4		67-68	19.1

 

 

 

 

So, hope for snow at the end of the month, thanks Ender.   

Further analysis would be interesting in respect to QBO and other factors and how they relate to your info.   

My experience in Delaware has shown decent snowfall in early to mid December has lead to at one MECS and above snowfall for the season, but 

my time span is not that great.  

 

[showmethesnow]

14 hours ago, Ender said:

Or...hope for nothing. 

Of the handful of winters that saw measurable snowfall at IAD or Baltimore before November 20th only two had more than "normal" snowfall for the season while four were borderline abysmal: 

 

Earliest Pre-Dec Snowfall Date	Amount		Winter Season	Dec - Mar Snowfall
10/10/79	1.3		79-80	25.5
10/19/72	0.1		72-73	1.5
10/29/11	0.6		11-12	3.1
11/5/62	0.3		62-63	20.3
11/6/53	5.9		53-54	16.2
11/7/60	0.2		60-61	46.3
11/10/68	1.6		68-69	17.7
11/11/87	5.3		87-88	11.4
11/12/76	0.4		76-77	10.2
11/14/96	0.7		96-97	17.1
11/19/55	2		55-56	17.1

 

Oh and while five of those winters aren't truly abysmal (the ones with Dec - Mar snowfalls of 16" - 20"), they kinda sort'a were. Three of those five had a only one snowfall of more than 3" in Dec - Mar with multiple .5" - 2.x" snowfalls making up the balance. The other two not truly abysmal winters...each had two snowfalls between 3" and 7"...with multiple .5" to 1.5" snowfalls. 

On a brighter note, fourteen Novembers have had their earliest measurable snow between the 20th and 30th of November. Those...turn out somewhat happier: 

Earliest Pre-Dec Snowfall Date	Amount		Winter Season	Dec - Mar Snowfall
11/20/61	3.2		61-62	32
11/22/89	2.4		89-90	26.8
11/23/95	0.3		95-96	61.6
11/23/05	0.3		05-06	13.5
11/24/71	2.9		71-72	17.5
11/24/81	0.9		81-82	28.6
11/25/50	0.5		50-51	5.7
11/25/83	0.3		83-84	22.1
11/27/77	0.1		77-78	27.3
11/27/78	4		78-79	36.6
11/29/66	0.1		66-67	44.3
11/30/52	2.8		52-53	9
11/30/64	0.2		64-65	16.1
11/30/67	11.4		67-68	19.1

 

 

 

Going by the above, if you break it down a little I actually like our chances irregardless of when it falls in November. It is October snowfall that seems to be the killer in our region. Ignoring Oct 79's snowfall (Is 25.5 correct?, didn't realize we did that well) if Balt or DC see a trace of snow or more in October it is normally the kiss of death for our region.

So ignoring October and focusing on November snowfalls. If we weed out the years where the ENSO value doesn't match up we actually have a very promising picture. Keeping only the years with an Aug, Sept, Oct ONI value of 0 through -1 (cold neutral through weak NINA) we are only left with 62 (20.3 inches) and 96 (17.1 inches) for early November snowfalls. Granted it is a small sample size so it is hardly conclusive but it does show close to average totals for snowfall. And after last year I think many on these boards would take it and run. 

Further more if you apply the ENSO value for snowfall for the entire month it paints a pretty rosy picture for our region if we see any November snowfall.

62   20.3

96   17.1

61   32

89   26.8

95   61.6

05   13.5

71   17.5

81   28.6

50   5.7

83   22.1

78   36.6

66   44.3

64   16.1

67   19.1

Out of 14 years there is only one true dog (two if you count 05 with 13.5) on that list and we see 6 of those year with above avg and the rest hovering around average. With us entering a Nina winter these numbers are much better then what we would typically expect to see. On vacation so all I have is my lap top with none of my weather links so I can't break it down even more (QBO, PDO, blocking + non-blocking winters, etc...). Maybe when I get back next week I will. I am curious how it would all shake out.

[Ender]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Going by the above, if you break it down a little I actually like our chances irregardless of when it falls in November. It is October snowfall that seems to be the killer in our region. Ignoring Oct 79's snowfall (Is 25.5 correct?, didn't realize we did that well) if Balt or DC see a trace of snow or more in October it is normally the kiss of death for our region.

So ignoring October and focusing on November snowfalls. If we weed out the years where the ENSO value doesn't match up we actually have a very promising picture. Keeping only the years with an Aug, Sept, Oct ONI value of 0 through -1 (cold neutral through weak NINA) we are only left with 62 (20.3 inches) and 96 (17.1 inches) for early November snowfalls. Granted it is a small sample size so it is hardly conclusive but it does show close to average totals for snowfall. And after last year I think many on these boards would take it and run. 

I only glanced at the ENSO states with respect to the various years in each set. The set of pre-November 20th snow measurement years had only a few winters that were not in a definitively warm or cold state with many of those warm state ENSO years. As you point out the sample size becomes very small. 

The years that have a fist measurable snowfall between the 20th and 30th, however, didn't have much in the way of an ENSO lean. Some were cold state, some were warm, some had just transitioned from warm to cold of equal magnitudes, some were second year cold, some were neutral. At least that's the take away from my casual review for things that would jump out at me. 

[NorthArlington101]

EURO gives a little hope for first flakes Sunday.... -1C 850s and temps ~40 around DCA with precip in the area. Verbatim on the run (not even weenie extrap) NW/Central MD flip to snow for awhile, heavy mix in areas like Hagerstown.

free euro maps:

if someone wants I can post Panasonic stuff. 

[jonjon]

Looks nice!  I'd love to see some Panasonic.

[NorthArlington101]

32 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Looks nice!  I'd love to see some Panasonic.

Panasonic (just a little more detailed then the free EURO stuff)

[jonjon]

Thanks for posting.

 

Love to see that purple!

[WVclimo]

The beginning of November looks seasonably chilly, but if this is right it doesn't last long:

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

The beginning of November looks seasonably chilly, but if this is right it doesn't last long:

Its been looking that way for a couple days now. Aleutian ridge comes back after a brief reshuffle, and at least some weak ridging builds again in the east after the first few days of the month. The modeled NA "blocking" appears to have been overdone as usual. Can't say I mind it though. No sense wasting a legit pattern in early November.

[nw baltimore wx]

33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its been looking that way for a couple days now. Aleutian ridge comes back after a brief reshuffle, and at least some weak ridging builds again in the east after the first few days of the month. The modeled NA "blocking" appears to have been overdone as usual. Can't say I mind it though. No sense wasting a legit pattern in early November.

Also sets up the rubber band for Thanksgiving and beyond.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yeah, let’s ease into a great pattern.  A great pattern is wasted this early.

[BTRWx]

2 hours ago, WVclimo said:

The beginning of November looks seasonably chilly, but if this is right it doesn't last long:

That is definitely a concern. 

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Also sets up the rubber band for Thanksgiving and beyond.

Lets hope. I haven't been as optimistic as some others here about the advertised "good look" and if it really meant anything for down the road. I am pretty locked in on monitoring the the AO/NAO. We likely need to have some persistent ridging near Greenland. Without it we are probably leaning towards another dud for much of our region.

[showmethesnow]

56 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Lets hope. I haven't been as optimistic as some others here about the advertised "good look" and if it really meant anything for down the road. I am pretty locked in on monitoring the the AO/NAO. We likely need to have some persistent ridging near Greenland. Without it we are probably leaning towards another dud for much of our region.

I am not so much concerned with a good look at this point. As you have seen that good look in the extended has taken a beating over the last few runs. And with the chaotic nature of the Pacific at this time any look after 7 days is going to be suspect let alone at 15/16 days. I am more concerned with laying the groundwork for the coming winter and with that I have been more then pleased. The PAC jet has taken a beating and we are seeing huge influxes of heat into the upper latitudes weakening and disrupting the PV. Hopefully this all portends that we will not be dealing with a typical Nina state with the PAC as well as high latitude blocking. Give me a continuation of that and I will let the chips fall for what type of winter pattern actually gets established for better or for worse.

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

I am not so much concerned with a good look at this point. As you have seen that good look in the extended has taken a beating over the last few runs. And with the chaotic nature of the Pacific at this time any look after 7 days is going to be suspect let alone at 15/16 days. I am more concerned with laying the groundwork for the coming winter and with that I have been more then pleased. The PAC jet has taken a beating and we are seeing huge influxes of heat into the upper latitudes weakening and disrupting the PV. Hopefully this all portends that we will not be dealing with a typical Nina state with the PAC as well as high latitude blocking. Give me a continuation of that and I will let the chips fall for what type of winter pattern actually gets established for better or for worse.

I'm with you. It's all perspective at this point. I don't give a crap about an EC ridge in Nov when there is abundant cold in Canada  The cold loading pattern in NA will persist as long as that ridge near AK hangs around. Oscillations in the mid latitudes don't mean all that much compared to what's going on in the higher latitudes. Cold west first then bleeding east through time is a very typical progression over longer timescales (2-4 weeks). 

We're still in fall climo mode. It's hard for really cold stuff to penetrate far south into the conus. That changes throughout the month of Nov as wavelengths shift more towards a winter pattern where the cold has a much easier time making its way south into our area and the SE or lower MW. I'll very much enjoy AN days in my yard in Nov when I know there is a good pattern for cold loading in NA. It's only a matter of time before it makes it here. 

However, I HATE AN temp days in Nov when the Pac jet is blasting and scouring and scorching NA. Especially in late Nov because the process of undoing that stuff takes a minimum of 2 weeks (or 3 or 4). You don't have to look too far back in the past to know exactly what a Pac air flood does to our hopes and dreams. lol

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm with you. It's all perspective at this point. I don't give a crap about an EC ridge in Nov when there is abundant cold in Canada  The cold loading pattern in NA will persist as long as that ridge near AK hangs around. Oscillations in the mid latitudes don't mean all that much compared to what's going on in the higher latitudes. Cold west first then bleeding east through time is a very typical progression over longer timescales (2-4 weeks). 

We're still in fall climo mode. It's hard for really cold stuff to penetrate far south into the conus. That changes throughout the month of Nov as wavelengths shift more towards a winter pattern where the cold has a much easier time making its way south into our area and the SE or lower MW. I'll very much enjoy AN days in my yard in Nov when I know there is a good pattern for cold loading in NA. It's only a matter of time before it makes it here. 

However, I HATE AN temp days in Nov when the Pac jet is blasting and scouring and scorching NA. Especially in late Nov because the process of undoing that stuff takes a minimum of 2 weeks (or 3 or 4). You don't have to look too far back in the past to know exactly what a Pac air flood does to our hopes and dreams. lol

x2

ebb and flow of change of seasons is fine and to be expected through Nov.  Like you said, it tollerable as long as you know the pendulum swings both ways...and not just a raging furnace.  As someone else stated, its too early from a climo perspective to "waste" cold until we get to latter Nov, and that cold can actually sustain and hold onto what so many here look forward to....white gold.

Looking forward to the upcoming season.  

Nut

[Cobalt]

GFS suggesting massive cold to build up in the northwest, But then again, this is 240 hours out, so It's most likely not credible whatsoever. It is fun to speculate though

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GFS suggesting massive cold to build up in the northwest, But then again, this is 240 hours out, so It's most likely not credible whatsoever. It is fun to speculate though

Get used to it. It's morphing into your typical warm/cold Nina pattern. Our shots for snow will come with clippers, snow to rain events, and hopefully 1 or 2 a small/mod coastal(s). Pray we fluke into something big (8"-12".) But when it's not cold, keep the fall clothes handy.

That said, I like seeing all this action off the coast and the fronts getting hung up. If we can get 1 or 2 of them during true winter, we score big.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Get used to it. It's morphing into your typical warm/cold Nina pattern. Our shots for snow will come with clippers, snow to rain events, and hopefully 1 or 2 a small/mod coastal(s). Pray we fluke into something big (8"-12".) But when it's not cold, keep the fall clothes handy.

That said, I like seeing all this action off the coast and the fronts getting hung up. If we can get 1 or 2 of them during true winter, we score big.

Yup. As long as we don't get disappointed with storm after storm I'm happy. Hopefully we get no storms like the December 2010 storm, where everywhere East of us, from Virginia Beach to Boston do better

[North Balti Zen]

The above map with the reds over us looks about right.

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

The above map with the reds over us looks about right.

Hopefully by that time, we've spotted the next incoming cold wave just several days out

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Hopefully by that time, we've spotted the next incoming cold wave just several days out

Sure. That will be dry. The Nina pattern sets in. Warm up and wet transition to cold and dry.