Cobalt Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 The cold wave after Tday weekend looks pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: Similar to the Euro .. yup, and similar to the GEFS.. as well as the EPS. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Another little storm develops on the tail end of the cold front on the 27th on the Del/NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Also, Eastern Canada is gonna be hammered by a few storms in the near future, doubling their snowpack Really laying the groundwork! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Jeezus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 7 hours ago, Cobalt said: Could happen for sure. All it takes is either cold temperatures and ok precip or not the best temps with a lot of precip. Probably wont see cold 850s with this one I am not a big believer in this storm other than some rain showers if it does come close enough, but fwiw 6z GFS is closer- scrapes DE and NJ with some light precip, possibly a r/s mix but surface temps are mid to upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 7 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Day 11 high hieghts building back into GL....Nice op run.. curious what the ensembles say..it will have to wait till morning. GEFS has lower heights around GL at the end. Its way out there but looks like a neutral or slightly positive AO/NAO. Seems likely there will be some relaxation up top as we move into early December. EPS looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 The overnight runs (both assembles and ops) continue the trend towards a possible coastal centered around Thanksgiving though timing differs somewhat. Overall the features in play have seen continued improvement. Ridging in the west is holder on longer before the upper part is sheared eastward. This in turn is allowing a deeper dig of the trough into the midsection of the country. This deeper dig is allowing colder air to filter much farther south then we were seeing just a couple of days ago as well the better ability to pull up some of the energy in the gulf for our potential coastal. We are also seeing better blocking placement over Greenland which has shifted southeast from just a few days ago. This is playing into the evolution of the pv, for the better, during the possible coastal. As I have been since day 15 on the GEFS when this period of interest came up, I am more concerned with just seeing a storm then what the snow possibilities may be. No storm, no possibility of snow after all. And at this point a storm is not a sure thing.. Even if we do see a storm it is just as likely to be OTS as to impacting our region. But for arguments sake lets assume we do have a coastal that impacts are region. What are the pros and cons for potential snow? Well the biggest con is climo and that is a hard one to overcome as we all know by now. Another con is possible track. Think we will need an almost perfect track and timing to make this work. Some pros? We are seeing a much deeper surge south of the cold into the midsection of the country which is giving it better placement to surge into our region as it moves eastward during any possible storm. We also have seen the cold anomalies deepen as we get closer in time. These colder anomalies are a combination of both the deeper surge as well as a tendency quite often of the ensembles to smooth out (mute) temp anomalies at longer ranges. We are also seeing better pv placement in southern Canada which would give room for a low to intensify and move up the coast. This same pv is also producing a northwest/west flow into our region which would help to funnel in cold air to our west. So the biggest question, if we do have a storm is, do we have the cold in place (which is a big if) and if so is it cold enough (climo after all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 The overnight runs (both assembles and ops)...... Good post as usual Showme, but is the assembles something new? Lol, jk my friend. I’m pretty sure everyone knows what you meant. If only we can get the pieces to a good start of winter to assemble properly. Certainly not a bad LR look. At least it doesn’t scream torch city like past years. Nice Fall/Winter chill for the holiday season. If we do see a relaxation of the pattern some in early Dec, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world as long as we reload back. Any type of reload pattern would put us in better shape come mid December moving forward. That’s when Climo starts to get a bit easier for our latitude. I’d take a break in the action if I knew Christmas time had a much better chance of delivering. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Time to AMP this one up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 20 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Good post as usual Showme, but is the assembles something new? Lol, jk my friend. I’m pretty sure everyone knows what you meant. If only we can get the pieces to a good start of winter to assemble properly. Certainly not a bad LR look. At least it doesn’t scream torch city like past years. Nice Fall/Winter chill for the holiday season. If we do see a relaxation of the pattern some in early Dec, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world as long as we reload back. Any type of reload pattern would put us in better shape come mid December moving forward. That’s when Climo starts to get a bit easier for our latitude. I’d take a break in the action if I knew Christmas time had a much better chance of delivering. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Thank you. What? A red tagger never hearing about the assembles? What's this world coming to. Actually have been enjoying the lead into winter. A little bit to track. Decent pattern setting up. Wearing coats instead of swimming trunks. What's there not to like. At this point I like our chances in the first half of winter. Would love to have a cold festive feel to the air when Christmas rolls around if not some white on the ground to go along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Anyone try using weather.us model page? It has Euro for free and Ryan M is now with them, too. The model page is harder to navigate than Weather Bell (which is saying a lot) but I’m excited for free models this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Thank you. What? A red tagger never hearing about the assembles? What's this world coming to. Actually have been enjoying the lead into winter. A little bit to track. Decent pattern setting up. Wearing coats instead of swimming trunks. What's there not to like. At this point I like our chances in the first half of winter. Would love to have a cold festive feel to the air when Christmas rolls around if not some white on the ground to go along with it. I have nothing of substance to add (never have, never will—LOL) You guys are doing an awesome job with your write ups though. Looking forward to more positive reads of forthcoming cold and snowy glory (until JI comes in and cancels this winter and the next 3) ;-) Got my fingers crossed we can score in the first half. Waiting until halftime and praying the team even comes out of the tunnel for the second is nerve wracking! Anyway. Rock on. I’m always reading and learning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: We are in medium range now. Pretty strong vort bundle diving in at 108 on the 6z . A few tweaks is all that's needed for a decent coastal. Curious to see today's runs. That is a nice look. It looks as if it has potential to ramp up a decent coastal. Dare I say a Nor'easter? (Not saying it would be snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 2 hours ago, nj2va said: Anyone try using weather.us model page? It has Euro for free and Ryan M is now with them, too. The model page is harder to navigate than Weather Bell (which is saying a lot) but I’m excited for free models this winter! Try wx.graphics for some prettier model pages...They also have decent UKMET maps as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Overall pattern on 12z GEFS looks good in the LR. Has at least some weak +heights over GL the whole time, where previous runs were hinting the NAO may go neutral and possibly weakly positive by day 15. NPAC continues to look good for now, with only the indication of a weak trough near the GOA at times later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 The setup on the Gefs looks even better for the possible storm off the coast around Thanksgiving. Showing heavier precip now reaching the eastern shore vs the 00z which had it a good bit off the coast. The snow mean now shows a swath of .1-.5 in southern MD and the eastern shore for that period of time. Eta: I have created a separate thread for this possible coastal that is now in the mid-range so that we can hopefully keep this long range clutter free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 EPS pretty clear (as well as GEFS) on potential cold wave following Tday weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Long range EPS seems to have changed quite a bit on the pattern around the turn of the month. Broad ridging across most of Canada is gone and replaced with a fairly robust -EPO pattern. No sign of a -NAO although the AO looks neutral or weakly negative. It’s still a fairly good look for us, just different from what it’s been advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Long range EPS seems to have changed quite a bit on the pattern around the turn of the month. Broad ridging across most of Canada is gone and replaced with a fairly robust -EPO pattern. No sign of a -NAO although the AO looks neutral or weakly negative. It’s still a fairly good look for us, just different from what it’s been advertising. I was just getting ready to post about the same thing. Confluence to the NE instead of a WAR and energy cutting under the epo/pna ridge. That pattern can work here. If the epo ridge is right were going to see some serious cold dropping down. Potential for a workable storm track with cold air available. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Long range EPS seems to have changed quite a bit on the pattern around the turn of the month. Broad ridging across most of Canada is gone and replaced with a fairly robust -EPO pattern. No sign of a -NAO although the AO looks neutral or weakly negative. It’s still a fairly good look for us, just different from what it’s been advertising. I was just looking at it. Pretty impressive EPO ridge. Hopefully the h5 +heights come back in the NAO region in later runs. GEFS had a neutral/slightly +NAO for a few runs, then 12z today had a -NAO through the whole run. Agree its a pretty good look regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I was just getting ready to post about the same thing. Confluence to the NE instead of a WAR and energy cutting under the epo/pna ridge. That pattern can work here. If the epo ridge is right were going to see some serious cold dropping down. Potential for a workable storm track with cold air available. I like it. Yeah, I wouldn’t complain about either this scenario or the one that it had been showing. I’d still prefer more ridging in the NAO domain to suppress the storm track more. Particularly since it’s very early season. But still WAY ahead of where we’ve been the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like all 3 ensemble packs Eps, Gefs, Geps agree on a cold 3 day ish stretch from Sun to Tuesday . Euro op is really gung ho with very anomalous temps during the stretch with highs in the low to mid 30s n/w esp. A bonus would be a well timed vort during this time frame to take advantage...the cold looks to be there. This sure beats last late fall by a country mile. Yeah it has looked for awhile now like post T-day would be the coldest stretch during this period before some moderation. I agree that if there is any potential at all for a storm worth tracking, it would be in the window from late next weekend into the first few days of the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it has looked for awhile now like post T-day would be the coldest stretch during this period before some moderation. I agree that if there is any potential at all for a storm worth tracking, it would be in the window from late next weekend into the first few days of the following week. 2M-Temp (F) Anomalies pretty robust on the Euro for next Sunday. Showing anywhere from -10 to -25F departures from normal for the entire MA region. That would be a hell of a way to help close out the month for the area with a below normal November for the first time in a few years. Edit: You have to go back to 2014 when the 3 major airports all hit below normal for the month of November. That ended a string of 3 consecutive below normal Novembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 When do we start December Long Range... The 5th looks great...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: When do we start December Long Range... The 5th looks great...lol Bob started a thread last night for Dec LR. It needs to be pinned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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