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November Long Range Disco

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That trough might be able to sharpen if it weren't for that bowling ball sitting in the GL.  Of course, then there would be no cold air either.

Seems like the GFS has trended a tad colder for 18z Friday, which is when the storm *would* hit us (if it even did)

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I haven't been looking at it.  I only looked at the 12z.

I think everyone had better just listen to WxUSA.  He's giving you the straight truth.

It's a nice long-wave pattern, but it's too progressive to expect some big nor'easter.  Cape Cod, SE Mass, etc. probably have slightly more hope that something might scrape by them.  But it's not a pattern to produce a big low off of OC.  New 12z GEFS has nothing.  

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It's a nice long-wave pattern, but it's too progressive to expect some big nor'easter.  Cape Cod, SE Mass, etc. probably have slightly more hope that something might scrape by them.  But it's not a pattern to produce a big low off of OC.  New 12z GEFS has nothing.  

Can second that. 12z GEFS has only 1 strong low, and it's over 400+ miles off the coast

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It's a nice long-wave pattern, but it's too progressive to expect some big nor'easter.  Cape Cod, SE Mass, etc. probably have slightly more hope that something might scrape by them.  But it's not a pattern to produce a big low off of OC.  New 12z GEFS has nothing.  

Yup. Literally nothing. Well, one member has a big rainstorm.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
Just now, Cobalt said:

Noticed that too. It also helps that it seems like that the Sunday-Thursday period of that week could be cold as per the 12z GEFS, the 12z GFS and last night's Euro

Yeah it looks like if there is any potential for some snow to occur in the MA(outside of the mountains) during this upcoming period, it would be late in the post t-day weekend or the following week.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted

12Z GFS 500mb looks fantastic through 300.  Verbatim we go zonal after, but its not worth discussing too much on an OP run.  Just pointing out that whether we snow or not, pattern is a MUCH more favorable and seasonal looking one.

Will be fun to see how things look a week from now.  

Nut

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Posted

I wanted to clear up something about a -NAO and what it does for us. I've seen more than a few posts about getting a -NAO going but not being bitter cold. A -nao doesn't produce bitter cold. The primary effect from a -NAO is a suppressed storm track but even with that there are many exceptions.

A -nao does produce below normal temperatures more often than not but below normal and WAY below normal temps are 2 very different things. Our average highs are still in the 50's through the end of Nov. Highs in the 40's are anomalous but still a ways away from a good air mass for snow. 

The pattern driver for bitter cold in our region is primarily a -EPO and secondarily a -AO. Combing a -EPO/AO will normally have extended cold anomalies in the eastern half of the CONUS. Having a -EPO and +AO will have fast moving cold shots that move in and out quick (ala 13-14/14-15). 2009-10 had a ridiculous -AO/NAO combo and it really wasn't a "bitter" winter. But it was cold enough when it mattered. No doubt about that. 

Just because we're getting a -nao/ao right now does not mean that we should expect much to come out of it. We're pretty much getting exactly what one should expect. Generally below normal temps but still a ways away from getting a good mix of ingredients for a snow storm. Even with a -ao/nao, a storm never making it south of us and/or cutting to the NW of us in November is pretty much what is supposed to happen. Getting a good coastal track but ending up with just rain is completely normal too. I know a lot of folks here know this stuff. I just wanted to reiterate it and also point out that a -NAO is not a big time cold pattern. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

12z GEFS did up the snow a ton. Mean is 1.5"+ for DC and NW Burbs. 13/20 of the ensembles show at least 0.1" of snow, so take your pick5a0f217f8b676_gefs_snow_ens_washdc_65(2).thumb.png.2d9302276448ca9d2cff4e3cd80b81bb.png

5a0f21df00c31_gefs_snow_mean_washdc_65(3).thumb.png.db21fee60ff00eb71827b383dd7bac60.png

Next week or two should be filled with some fun OP and ensembles runs, and hopefully 1 or 2 snow/flurry events :lol:

I think too much is made of the snow mean.  One or two members can really screw up the mean.  I think count the number of members with measurable snow and you'll get a better picture of what might realistically occur.

I like the fact that there are more members showing snow than not. Of course this is over a 16 day period, so it could be that those members all have one snow solution, all on different days, none of which are reasonable. 

I guess you could say that I don't find this product useful at all :lol: 

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think too much is made of the snow mean.  One or two members can really screw up the mean.  I think count the number of members with measurable snow and you'll get a better picture of what might realistically occur.

I like the fact that there are more members showing snow than not. Of course this is over a 16 day period, so it could be that those members all have one snow solution, all on different days, none of which are reasonable. 

I guess you could say that I don't find this product useful at all :lol: 

I see where you're coming from. I also like how the mean isn't just built up of 2 1'+ events near that 16 day event. But of course, we're still a ways out

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Only precip during looks to be a snowstorm in New England on the Euro

All of our great winters had NE snow storms before we got in on the goods. Personally,  I'd like to see them get some snow because 1) we ain't gonna win a snowfall contest with them, and 2) we need the pattern to progress so hopefully it starts up there soon.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

A bit of a pep talk, which I normally dont do, lol. (vodka tonics tho)

Expectations for cold and snow seem unrealistically high by some in this sub-forum, who really do know better.

It is still November. CLIMO. Blocking is great, I love Blocking. Just ask @WinterWxLuvr. A NA block in November, however, does not usually equate to well below average temps and snowstorm chances. As Bob Chill, myself, and others have posted, what we really needed to see is the establishment of a -AO/NAO regime early. We have that in our sights. It's actually happening. As we head towards December, the focus shifts to getting the NPAC tweaked more in our favor, and overall we are seeing that as of late in the guidance. All (for now) is going according to plan. We are in a remarkably better position for some early winter action than we have been in several years. The groundwork for a favorable pattern is being laid down now so that we will have legit chances a few weeks from now, when our climo begins to become more favorable for cold outbreaks and opportunities for snow. It is possible some could score something even earlier, maybe in 10-14 days. Patience.

 

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

A bit of a pep talk, which I normally dont do, lol. (vodka tonics tho)

Expectations for cold and snow seem unrealistically high by some in this sub-forum, who really do know better.

It is still November. CLIMO. Blocking is great, I love Blocking. Just ask @WinterWxLuvr. A NA block in November, however, does not usually equate to well below average temps and snowstorm chances. As Bob Chill, myself, and others have posted, what we really needed to see is the establishment of a -AO/NAO regime early. We have that in our sights. It's actually happening. As we head towards December, the focus shifts to getting the NPAC tweaked more in our favor, and overall we are seeing that as of late in the guidance. All (for now) is going according to plan. We are in a remarkably better position for some early winter action than we have been in several years. The groundwork for a favorable pattern is being laid down now so that we will have legit chances a few weeks from now, when our climo begins to become more favorable for cold outbreaks and opportunities for snow. It is possible some could score something even earlier, maybe in 10-14 days. Patience.

 

Great points. For November climo, this is really good, and for Winter, we could for sure be laying down the groundwork. We've gotta focus on all the positives that aren't happening here in DC alone. For example, Canada's snow pack is great, 10 times better compared to last year. I mean, it's even hard to get snow in the mid of December in most years.

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted

The pattern depicted in the 12-15 on the eps is a gnats hair from being money in the bank.  With a smoothed mean that far out, it is just as possible that it ends up a beaut Clark.  

I do agree with @mitchnick tho,  it would be nice to see the white carpet being laid down to our north and northwest over the next two weeks.  But honestly, if I were to pull myself away from the daily microanalysis of the LR ens and just feel the weather outside....it "feels" like a normal progression toward winter in the MA.  Sometimes this hobby keeps you from being able to see the forrest through the trees..

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Wonderdog

Wonderdog

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

0z GFS is much farther NW, basically riding the coast. Still a rainstorm though lol

Yup, rides the coast up to VA. 2M Temps drop to mid to upper 30's when it reaches our latitude. Close but no cigar . Maybe we see some rain mixed with wet snow with this storm, assuming it amplifies to the west a little more so that we get wet. 

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Yup, rides the coast up to VA. 2M Temps drop to mid to upper 30's when it reaches our latitude. Close but no cigar . Maybe we see some rain mixed with wet snow with this storm, assuming it amplifies to the west a little more so that we get wet. 

Could happen for sure. All it takes is either cold temperatures and ok precip or not the best temps with a lot of precip. Probably wont see cold 850s with this one

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