CAPE Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'm huggin...lol I think it's safe to say at this point that the Nov CanSips is going to totally miss Nov. It's like not even close. Pretty much the day after the Nov CanSips came out, the globals starting picking up on the blocking event so it makes sense that the CanSips is going to end up being way off. Abrupt changes in the ao/nao spaces are never picked up at long leads. Steady as she goes for now. I see no reason to worry much. Snow never comes easy so that's a different battle but being "in the game" as it appears right now to kick off met winter is refreshing. Have you checked out the latest GEPS weekly? Looks pretty sweet. Much like the EPS out west at day 15, and it gets better lol. Maybe some good times ahead for the early part of met winter for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 18z GEFS backs down a bit from 12z, but it's still on the table. Good news is, we have 7 days for things to change in our favor. Bad news is, we have 7 days for it to go the other way. Future OP runs should be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Weeklies....the control has 1'+ on Christmas eve. Lock it in! In seriousness, not a bad run imo. Keeps the ninoish look through the month of December. I do have some issues with its placement of a ridge in the east during a period of -EPO/AO and neutralish NAO...doesnt seem right. Ups and downs throughout the run but the main feature that stays stable is the aleutian trough which slowly retros through the month of dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 37 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Weeklies....the control has 1'+ on Christmas eve. Lock it in! In seriousness, not a bad run imo. Keeps the ninoish look through the month of December. I do have some issues with its placement of a ridge in the east during a period of -EPO/AO and neutralish NAO...doesnt seem right. Ups and downs throughout the run but the main feature that stays stable is the aleutian trough which slowly retros through the month of dec. Ha I was just about to post. Agree with your assessment. Overall the NPAC looks rather favorable throughout; the NA looks a bit changeable.. AO/NAO looks negative/neutral much of the time, although there is a period where it appears to go positive. Not a ton of cold air around all the time verbatim, and the ridging in the east looks questionable towards the end, but definitely not bad overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 The zone forecast for thanksgiving couldn't be any more boring. Highs near 50 and dry. And that's with supposedly great blocking. Give me a wedge pattern with drizzle. This whole thing is nearly meh with a side of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 8 hours ago, BristowWx said: The zone forecast for thanksgiving couldn't be any more boring. Highs near 50 and dry. And that's with supposedly great blocking. Give me a wedge pattern with drizzle. This whole thing is nearly meh with a side of meh. I am guessing temps will probably trend down a bit. But still, I dont really expect anything colder than maybe low 40s for highs late next week, which I would personally be fine with. My current forecast high for T-day is 47. Also the presence of a block does not always equate to much below temps down here. It is still November, and there really isn't a lot of super cold air in nearby parts of Canada. Most of the colder stuff is up in NW Canada and AK. Give it some time. If the pattern is persistent, the cold will come, and it will be "easier" as we move into mid December with improving climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am guessing temps will probably trend down a bit. But still, I dont really expect anything colder than maybe low 40s for highs late next week, which I would personally be fine with. My current forecast high for T-day is 47. Also the presence of a block does not always equate to much below temps down here. It is still November, and there really isn't a lot of super cold air in nearby parts of Canada. Most of the colder stuff is up in NW Canada and AK. Give it some time. If the pattern is persistent, the cold will come, and it will be "easier" as we move into mid December with improving climo. Yeah I know...not sure what I was expecting...I equate every great potential pattern with snow...wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 I'm with Chuck let's wait until the next model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 For what it's worth, the EPS has been trending favorably the last 2 days towards a possible late/post Thanksgiving storm. Still a ways to go but it leaves the possibility on the table. Below I have used the control run because it gives a little more detail to the map but for all intents and purposes it is spot on with the EPS run at the same time. What we have seen over the last 2 days is that the EPS has become less aggressive in forcing the PAC trough into the Pacific northwest. This in turn allows the western ridging to hold on longer before the upper portion of the ridging/higher heights is forced eastward flattening the flow at our latitude. This is allowing the pv lobe/trough in the Midwest to dig more as well as farther to the west putting it in a better position to potentially capture the energy/low that is down in the gulf. Now if you look at the map you see a circled area in southwest Canada. This is energy/shortwave that is rounding the Midwest trough that would be the feature that would potentially be doing the capture. What we will hopefully see in future runs is a better dig from the Midwest trough (maybe a little more shifting west as well) to give better positioning to that shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm with Chuck let's wait until the next model run Dude, it’s over. No, no, wait it’s gonna be great. No, wait ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm with Chuck let's wait until the next model run 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Dude, it’s over. No, no, wait it’s gonna be great. No, wait ... Lol... we should start a new index in his honor. The CWO. Chuck whiplash oscillation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol... we should start a new index in his honor. The CWO. Chuck whiplash oscillation. He's obviously doing it intentionally...I just don't know what his intentions are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: He's obviously doing it intentionally...I just don't know what his intentions are. Yea I said that a few weeks ago and he defended his posts. Perhaps he just didn't want to break character. Not sure his motive. It's funny though. Perhaps he got stuck on a roller coaster at 6 flags and this is his plea for help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Post-thanksgiving the GEFS latest run seems to have a sharper shape to it especially in the Gulf of Mexico. Can someone explain to this novice if this change is good or bad for a coastal storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 47 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Post-thanksgiving the GEFS latest run seems to have a sharper shape to it especially in the Gulf of Mexico. Can someone explain to this novice if this change is good or bad for a coastal storm? More like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 55 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Post-thanksgiving the GEFS latest run seems to have a sharper shape to it especially in the Gulf of Mexico. Can someone explain to this novice if this change is good or bad for a coastal storm? The whole trough is too far to the east. And there is nothing to bring it up the coast. That’s what it looks like to me. Was looking back at the previous runs and it’s interesting to see how much less amplified the pattern looks. Went from epic to shmepic...if that’s a word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 00z GGEM at the end of its run at 240 hrs with the SLP and h5 positions looked intriguing to me... but its the GGEM at 240 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 It would be nice to be in a blocky winter pattern for a change . At least once you get the block in place it usually takes a while for it to break down. But I would prefer to have the block towards the end of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It would be nice to be in a blocky winter pattern for a change . At least once you get the block in place it usually takes a while for it to break down. But I would prefer to have the block towards the end of December. The upcoming blocky period is not likely to bear fruit for those expecting mid-winter cold and a snowstorm. Hopefully it is a preview of whats to come for December and January. It's like preseason over the next 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 12z GFS has an interesting look to it at Hour 144. Quite a bit different from previous runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 12z Actually has a pretty good improvement. Storm doesn't just stall in the Gulf of Mexico, and it looks to be much farther West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Hello Coastal Storm Black Friday? Will the trend continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 The trough is way too positively tilted and there is way too little cold air to even bother rooting for this as anything other than passing chilly rain showers and clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 That trough might be able to sharpen if it weren't for that bowling ball sitting in the GL. Of course, then there would be no cold air either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The trough is way too positively tilted and there is way too little cold air to even bother rooting for this as anything other than passing chilly rain showers and clouds. Idk, the 850s show that the support for snow is possible, especially if we can get in heavy precip. It would be tough, and there's time for things to change in a positive direction. I'm rather skeptical, but hopefully this will be something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Idk, the 850s show that the support for snow is possible, especially if we can get in heavy precip. It would be tough, and there's time for things to change in a positive direction. I'm rather skeptical, but hopefully this will be something to track Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That trough might be able to sharpen if it weren't for that bowling ball sitting in the GL. Of course, then there would be no cold air either. But isn'tthe trough already beginning to sharpen if you compare this look with the previous few runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 GFS suggests 3rd round of cold comes in on the 27th. Euro had something similar as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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