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November Long Range Disco

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

The very end of the 0z GFS. Ruh roh. Thank god that'll be gone on the 6z... :axe:

I saw a -AO/-NAO building. Sure...there was a -PNA, but to me it looked more transient than anything.

But, of course, that all changed on the 06z, as you mentioned. That showed a stout -AO and a really nice west-based -NAO with higher heights trying to press into Alaska. Seeing the block reestablishing itself and remaining somewhat stable is really heartening. We just need to make sure it's not locking in a mild Pacific firehose!

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, mappy said:

should i pay attention again? 

I'd keep an eye open if youre hoping for a chance at some flurry fun next weekend (favoring western locals). 

Its obviouse that many of us are snow hungry (me included).  But truth told, I'm just glad the firehose appears to be turned off for the MA and Northeast.  While the indicies  and 500mb maps look decent and seem to be trending nicely, the 850's and surface maps and their progression reflect a pattern similar to last year with storms cutting well west of our region.  Backdoor cold....

Upper levels dont really match surface evolution IMO.  But I am looking at an op run at 7-10 day window...so I guess that really says it all.

Nut 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Was just looking at the 0z EPS. There is a bit of a signal for a coastal storm days 9-11. Can also see a weak hint looking at the snowfall mean- has a light gray swath over eastern areas of the MA and NE. Something to keep an eye on.

Must have been asleep when I glanced over the overnight runs because I sure didn't see that. Not a bad little signal (both 500's and mslp support it somewhat). So how are we playing this? Should we be gung ho, cautiously optimistic or just whatever? :D 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Must have been asleep when I glanced over the overnight runs because I sure didn't see that. Not a bad little signal (both 500's and mslp support it somewhat). So how are we playing this? Should we be gung ho, cautiously optimistic or just whatever? :D 

Ha, well I think I will stick to somewhat under-enthused, casual watching mode. If the signal is persistent and strengthens over the next few days, then I will become a bit more interested. Of course if things do ramp up on the guidance, in all likelihood we would just be tracking a chilly rain storm. :P 

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'd keep an eye open if youre hoping for a chance at some flurry fun next weekend (favoring western locals). 

Its obviouse that many of us are snow hungry (me included).  But truth told, I'm just glad the firehose appears to be turned off for the MA and Northeast.  While the indicies  and 500mb maps look decent and seem to be trending nicely, the 850's and surface maps and their progression reflect a pattern similar to last year with storms cutting well west of our region.  Backdoor cold....

Upper levels dont really match surface evolution IMO.  But I am looking at an op run at 7-10 day window...so I guess that really says it all.

Nut 

I agree with this. I think we have good chance of at least seeing our first flakes next week off of a streamer or something. And I also think that early Dec window needs to be watched as well.

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted

I'm gonna sum up the 12z GEFS from a pure weenie-snowfall standpoint: Best of the season.

There is some potential around Day 8 though. A couple members deepen a low off OBX and get snow in the region, others have the low present but its either not deep enough/other things aren't working out. I invite someone to do a better analysis re: why some lows don't get the job done. 

Free version:

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_33.png

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Bit of a disagreement with the operational Euro and its ensembles on temps. Day 10 850 anomalies on the operational on top and the ensembles on the bottom.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017111612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017111612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Posted

EPS looks like a nino d15. lol

We can work with this. I consider this a bit of a cave towards the GEFS. Aleutian low/pna ridge works fine with me. No signs of  a -ao/nao collapse. Both look neutral but most importantly no areas of strong bn heights or mslp in the ao/nao domains. I consider this a really good looking panel honestly. Retro the aleutian low west a bit and it could be really cold down the line. I don't think a person here would object to Dec starting off looking like this. 

GP6kVDi.jpg

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Quick breakdown between the key difference between EPS and the GEFS for our potential post Turkey day storm.

Below we have both the GEFS and the EPS at day 5. Very similar looks with the ridging in the west and a trough to its west. Now watch how they handle the ridging in the west.

5a0df1cc610b8_EPSday5.thumb.gif.fc5ce2f659f53fc15fd5dee78d62b2eb.gif

 

5a0df1d0d50ac_GEFSday5.thumb.gif.f0d2ff39e72545093e4cf6920cff12ff.gif

 

Here at day 7 we see a completely different look in the east between both models. The trough (on the west coast) on the EPS is suppressing the western ridging and forcing the upper portion eastward. Thus we see a much flatter flow through our region with a southern trough into the gulf. Compare that to the GEFS which not only holds tight with the ridging out west but also strengthens it. Thus we see a flow with more north south movement with a trough that extends from Canada down to the gulf. This look is what we want to see to have any hope because it will allow cold air to be pumped into the region unlike the EPS which pumps warn air in. 

 

5a0df1ce88001_EPSday7.thumb.gif.c22288f59e3836245f53088e4f4fdac9.gif

 

5a0df1d31e23d_GEFSday7.thumb.gif.cdb77d32167eb9af87d3f7e38bcee936.gif

 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS looks like a nino d15. lol

We can work with this. I consider this a bit of a cave towards the GEFS. Aleutian low/pna ridge works fine with me. No signs of  a -ao/nao collapse. Both look neutral but most importantly no areas of strong bn heights or mslp in the ao/nao domains. I consider this a really good looking panel honestly. Retro the aleutian low west a bit and it could be really cold down the line. I don't think a person here would object to Dec starting off looking like this. 

GP6kVDi.jpg

It is a nice look. GEFS has also been bringing the Alut low a touch to far east for my liking. As you, I would like to see that feature moved a little to the west.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep.. definitely looking better for coastal idea on the Eps....but the cold air available looks lacking but it's futile to worry about temps at hour 192

 

And around hour 240 as well there's a signal

If the EPS doesn't break down the ridging out west the temp profile would look drastically different. Unfortunately the EPS has been pretty persistent on doing just that. 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS looks like a nino d15. lol

We can work with this. I consider this a bit of a cave towards the GEFS. Aleutian low/pna ridge works fine with me. No signs of  a -ao/nao collapse. Both look neutral but most importantly no areas of strong bn heights or mslp in the ao/nao domains. I consider this a really good looking panel honestly. Retro the aleutian low west a bit and it could be really cold down the line. I don't think a person here would object to Dec starting off looking like this. 

 

I agree, Bob.  "Nino-ish" is exactly what I thought as well.  And it seems the above normal heights in Canada are retrograding toward the north and west in the last few days of the run, which would be even better if it were to continue into early December.  It's a solid look to kick off met winter and would put us in the game from the start.  Damn how refreshing would it be to not be grasping at D15 trends throughout December?!

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

It is a nice look. GEFS has also been bringing the Alut low a touch to far east for my liking. As you, I would like to see that feature moved a little to the west.

Hey dont be too picky now, lol. Over the last few runs the look on the EPS in the NPAC has really improved. Would be nice if retros a bit, and hopefully that's the way its headed going forward. Or could end up with a deep trough right back in the GOA. Lets hope not.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Posted
50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I agree, Bob.  "Nino-ish" is exactly what I thought as well.  And it seems the above normal heights in Canada are retrograding toward the north and west in the last few days of the run, which would be even better if it were to continue into early December.  It's a solid look to kick off met winter and would put us in the game from the start.  Damn how refreshing would it be to not be grasping at D15 trends throughout December?!

I'm huggin...lol

I think it's safe to say at this point that the Nov CanSips is going to totally miss Nov. It's like not even close. Pretty much the day after the Nov CanSips came out, the globals starting picking up on the blocking event so it makes sense that the CanSips is going to end up being way off. Abrupt changes in the ao/nao spaces are never picked up at long leads. Steady as she goes for now. I see no reason to worry much. Snow never comes easy so that's a different battle but being "in the game" as it appears right now to kick off met winter is refreshing. 

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Eduardo

Eduardo

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

It is a nice look. GEFS has also been bringing the Alut low a touch to far east for my liking. As you, I would like to see that feature moved a little to the west.

Agreed.  This is the biggest worry in a Niña winter, especially if we are looking for some fun on the front end of it...climo plus some ATL help might do the trick a bit later on even with a mehhhh PAC side.  Weakness and east-based orientation of the Niña, gives me some hope though.  That blob of warm water off the WC of the Baja Peninsula might make things interesting too.  Decent discussion of and speculation regarding this (anomalous?) FEATURE over in my home (NYC) thread.

You're right though.  Inch that Aleutian low back to the dateline as today's 12z, 360-hr EPS shows, and that's a great look heading into Dec....  I continue to hope (and hug)!

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