Amped Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 MR and LR model continuity has been awful lately. Anything possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 The very end of the 0z GFS. Ruh roh. Thank god that'll be gone on the 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 7 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: The very end of the 0z GFS. Ruh roh. Thank god that'll be gone on the 6z... I saw a -AO/-NAO building. Sure...there was a -PNA, but to me it looked more transient than anything. But, of course, that all changed on the 06z, as you mentioned. That showed a stout -AO and a really nice west-based -NAO with higher heights trying to press into Alaska. Seeing the block reestablishing itself and remaining somewhat stable is really heartening. We just need to make sure it's not locking in a mild Pacific firehose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Was just looking at the 0z EPS. There is a bit of a signal for a coastal storm days 9-11. Can also see a weak hint looking at the snowfall mean- has a light gray swath over eastern areas of the MA and NE. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 should i pay attention again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, mappy said: should i pay attention again? No...that was not the aleet you are looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 59 minutes ago, mappy said: should i pay attention again? I'd keep an eye open if youre hoping for a chance at some flurry fun next weekend (favoring western locals). Its obviouse that many of us are snow hungry (me included). But truth told, I'm just glad the firehose appears to be turned off for the MA and Northeast. While the indicies and 500mb maps look decent and seem to be trending nicely, the 850's and surface maps and their progression reflect a pattern similar to last year with storms cutting well west of our region. Backdoor cold.... Upper levels dont really match surface evolution IMO. But I am looking at an op run at 7-10 day window...so I guess that really says it all. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Was just looking at the 0z EPS. There is a bit of a signal for a coastal storm days 9-11. Can also see a weak hint looking at the snowfall mean- has a light gray swath over eastern areas of the MA and NE. Something to keep an eye on. Must have been asleep when I glanced over the overnight runs because I sure didn't see that. Not a bad little signal (both 500's and mslp support it somewhat). So how are we playing this? Should we be gung ho, cautiously optimistic or just whatever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Must have been asleep when I glanced over the overnight runs because I sure didn't see that. Not a bad little signal (both 500's and mslp support it somewhat). So how are we playing this? Should we be gung ho, cautiously optimistic or just whatever? Ha, well I think I will stick to somewhat under-enthused, casual watching mode. If the signal is persistent and strengthens over the next few days, then I will become a bit more interested. Of course if things do ramp up on the guidance, in all likelihood we would just be tracking a chilly rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 58 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'd keep an eye open if youre hoping for a chance at some flurry fun next weekend (favoring western locals). Its obviouse that many of us are snow hungry (me included). But truth told, I'm just glad the firehose appears to be turned off for the MA and Northeast. While the indicies and 500mb maps look decent and seem to be trending nicely, the 850's and surface maps and their progression reflect a pattern similar to last year with storms cutting well west of our region. Backdoor cold.... Upper levels dont really match surface evolution IMO. But I am looking at an op run at 7-10 day window...so I guess that really says it all. Nut I agree with this. I think we have good chance of at least seeing our first flakes next week off of a streamer or something. And I also think that early Dec window needs to be watched as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2 hours ago, mappy said: should i pay attention again? Yes. For at least a couple of hours. You know you'd hate to miss out on the possibility of flurries in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yes. For at least a couple of hours. You know you'd hate to miss out on the possibility of flurries in 10 days. Or there could be another random ALEET worthy Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Please delete, shouldn't leave Tapatalk open in my pocket. You can delete it- under Options, next to Edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 59 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Or there could be another random ALEET worthy Euro run. I missed the aleet. Shame. I wanted to get my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Gefs says don't give up hope on the storm shortly after Thanksgiving. Fairly decent signal for something off the coast. Also looks to have a possible followup a couple days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Euro seems to be backing off on Canada torch for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 EURO decides to do nothing down in GOM from 144 to 216... it looked like a SLP was going to develop at 168, but EURO decides against that... Though 240 looks... interesting... I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 I'm gonna sum up the 12z GEFS from a pure weenie-snowfall standpoint: Best of the season. There is some potential around Day 8 though. A couple members deepen a low off OBX and get snow in the region, others have the low present but its either not deep enough/other things aren't working out. I invite someone to do a better analysis re: why some lows don't get the job done. Free version: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Day 8 EPS is interesting... Decent cluster of lows off OBX... Looking back a couple runs, its definitely a trend in the positive direction. Just two runs ago there were no lows of the coast, now we've got about 8, with a bunch more not too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Not a bad look on day 10 also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Bit of a disagreement with the operational Euro and its ensembles on temps. Day 10 850 anomalies on the operational on top and the ensembles on the bottom. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017111612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017111612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 EPS looks like a nino d15. lol We can work with this. I consider this a bit of a cave towards the GEFS. Aleutian low/pna ridge works fine with me. No signs of a -ao/nao collapse. Both look neutral but most importantly no areas of strong bn heights or mslp in the ao/nao domains. I consider this a really good looking panel honestly. Retro the aleutian low west a bit and it could be really cold down the line. I don't think a person here would object to Dec starting off looking like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Holy cr@p! Did you know that Weather.us has Doppler radar going back to 1991? Here's 12/19/09.....just a date I picked out of thin air!! lol https://weather.us/radar-us/maryland/reflectivity/KLWX_20091219-0339z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Quick breakdown between the key difference between EPS and the GEFS for our potential post Turkey day storm. Below we have both the GEFS and the EPS at day 5. Very similar looks with the ridging in the west and a trough to its west. Now watch how they handle the ridging in the west. Here at day 7 we see a completely different look in the east between both models. The trough (on the west coast) on the EPS is suppressing the western ridging and forcing the upper portion eastward. Thus we see a much flatter flow through our region with a southern trough into the gulf. Compare that to the GEFS which not only holds tight with the ridging out west but also strengthens it. Thus we see a flow with more north south movement with a trough that extends from Canada down to the gulf. This look is what we want to see to have any hope because it will allow cold air to be pumped into the region unlike the EPS which pumps warn air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS looks like a nino d15. lol We can work with this. I consider this a bit of a cave towards the GEFS. Aleutian low/pna ridge works fine with me. No signs of a -ao/nao collapse. Both look neutral but most importantly no areas of strong bn heights or mslp in the ao/nao domains. I consider this a really good looking panel honestly. Retro the aleutian low west a bit and it could be really cold down the line. I don't think a person here would object to Dec starting off looking like this. It is a nice look. GEFS has also been bringing the Alut low a touch to far east for my liking. As you, I would like to see that feature moved a little to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 59 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yep.. definitely looking better for coastal idea on the Eps....but the cold air available looks lacking but it's futile to worry about temps at hour 192 And around hour 240 as well there's a signal If the EPS doesn't break down the ridging out west the temp profile would look drastically different. Unfortunately the EPS has been pretty persistent on doing just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS looks like a nino d15. lol We can work with this. I consider this a bit of a cave towards the GEFS. Aleutian low/pna ridge works fine with me. No signs of a -ao/nao collapse. Both look neutral but most importantly no areas of strong bn heights or mslp in the ao/nao domains. I consider this a really good looking panel honestly. Retro the aleutian low west a bit and it could be really cold down the line. I don't think a person here would object to Dec starting off looking like this. I agree, Bob. "Nino-ish" is exactly what I thought as well. And it seems the above normal heights in Canada are retrograding toward the north and west in the last few days of the run, which would be even better if it were to continue into early December. It's a solid look to kick off met winter and would put us in the game from the start. Damn how refreshing would it be to not be grasping at D15 trends throughout December?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: It is a nice look. GEFS has also been bringing the Alut low a touch to far east for my liking. As you, I would like to see that feature moved a little to the west. Hey dont be too picky now, lol. Over the last few runs the look on the EPS in the NPAC has really improved. Would be nice if retros a bit, and hopefully that's the way its headed going forward. Or could end up with a deep trough right back in the GOA. Lets hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I agree, Bob. "Nino-ish" is exactly what I thought as well. And it seems the above normal heights in Canada are retrograding toward the north and west in the last few days of the run, which would be even better if it were to continue into early December. It's a solid look to kick off met winter and would put us in the game from the start. Damn how refreshing would it be to not be grasping at D15 trends throughout December?! I'm huggin...lol I think it's safe to say at this point that the Nov CanSips is going to totally miss Nov. It's like not even close. Pretty much the day after the Nov CanSips came out, the globals starting picking up on the blocking event so it makes sense that the CanSips is going to end up being way off. Abrupt changes in the ao/nao spaces are never picked up at long leads. Steady as she goes for now. I see no reason to worry much. Snow never comes easy so that's a different battle but being "in the game" as it appears right now to kick off met winter is refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: It is a nice look. GEFS has also been bringing the Alut low a touch to far east for my liking. As you, I would like to see that feature moved a little to the west. Agreed. This is the biggest worry in a Niña winter, especially if we are looking for some fun on the front end of it...climo plus some ATL help might do the trick a bit later on even with a mehhhh PAC side. Weakness and east-based orientation of the Niña, gives me some hope though. That blob of warm water off the WC of the Baja Peninsula might make things interesting too. Decent discussion of and speculation regarding this (anomalous?) FEATURE over in my home (NYC) thread. You're right though. Inch that Aleutian low back to the dateline as today's 12z, 360-hr EPS shows, and that's a great look heading into Dec.... I continue to hope (and hug)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.