smokeybandit Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We will aleet you if the situation warrants. How covfefe of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 34 minutes ago, Ji said: in my mind yes..publicly no If only we could get into that mind..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 18 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: That is flips the NPAC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If you are quite not sure what I am referring to you can go back to a previous post I made on it. Page 16 in this thread about a quarter of the way down (Monday 8:32 am). Sorry it is really long winded but I hope it gives you an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Can Ian laugh now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: 18z already looking different at 120 compare it to the 6z. Looks basically the same for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Newest GFS looks pretty good for the 2nd cold wave. Looks like it wont be as deep of a trough as the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 The stretch of the cold is pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 18z GFS doesn't torch Canada's snowpack like the 6z run did. Good news hopefully. We need that snow to build up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Hellova block over top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Wow the entire 18z gfs is pretty much just amazing from a blocking stand point. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Wow the entire 18z gfs is pretty much just amazing from a blocking stand point. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Crisis averted. Time to bring @mappy back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 18z GFS makes me giddy. Too bad it's the 18z GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z GFS makes me giddy. Too bad it's the 18z GFS though. When compared to the 6z, they're pretty similar. Better than the 12z on steroids which put everywhere West of DC into a temporary ice age Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 The 18z GEFS are not bad either.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Epic blocking in November yields mid-to-upper 30s and flurries. Yippie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Epic blocking in November yields mid-to-upper 30s and flurries. Yippie. This made me lol. That's pretty much what a great November pattern will bring in general in any year. The climo corner really doesn't turn until the first week of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 This made me lol. That's pretty much what a great November pattern will bring in general in any year. The climo corner really doesn't turn until the first week of Dec. What I do not understand is why March is easier to get snow than November. In terms of how far away the months are from meteorological winter it is the same.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: What I do not understand is why March is easier to get snow than November. In terms of how far away the months are from meteorological winter it is the same. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Background conditions are VASTLY different in March. Much colder ocean temps on both sides of the continent and much more expansive hemispheric snow and ice cover. Other than daylight hours, there isn't much comparison between the 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: What I do not understand is why March is easier to get snow than November. In terms of how far away the months are from meteorological winter it is the same. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I tend to think of it like this: You know how Dec. 21st is the shortest day of the year, but isn't the coldest day of the year? For D.C, that typically resides in mid-late January as far as I can remember. If must just be an effect that wears off later in March than Summer/Fall wear off. I mean, we've seen our fair share of cold, everything just isn't as perfect, especially with climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This made me lol. That's pretty much what a great November pattern will bring in general in any year. The climo corner really doesn't turn until the first week of Dec. I can get on board with a chilly November though. If I don't have to wear shorts and turn on the AC I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs is candy for sure It makes the most sense compared the EPS based on past history. This doesn't look like hit and run blocking so if you lean on previous experiences, the GEFS (and even GFS) is more believable in general. We're still 4-5 days away from getting the west based NAO blocking going. Once that's inserted into initialization math I have a hunch that the EPS will start backing off its more aggressive shift away from a -ao/nao. Just a hunch. If the EPS sticks to it's guns through the weekend and/or the GEFS starts caving I'll change my mind but not until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I can get on board with a chilly November though. If I don't have to wear shorts and turn on the AC I'm happy. Me too. Seeing such a stout blocking event unfold could be a sign that this winter will be much different in that regard than the last 6. Dec snow is hard to come by without multiple pieces coming together. I'm heading up to SW CT for the holiday and I'm very much looking forward to cold if it happens. I'm also looking forward to the chance at a legit threat on the radar when I get back in town. Even our best winters have extended crap warm periods. I'd much prefer a strong start and have the switch flip for an early end than the other way around. I'm sickly tired of punting the first 4-6 weeks of met winter. Backloaded sucks. By the time it finally snows it feels like the end is already in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Me too. Seeing such a stout blocking event unfold could be a sign that this winter will be much different in that regard than the last 6. Dec snow is hard to come by without multiple pieces coming together. I'm heading up to SW CT for the holiday and I'm very much looking forward to cold if it happens. I'm also looking forward to the chance at a legit threat on the radar when I get back in town. Even our best winters have extended crap warm periods. I'd much prefer a strong start and have the switch flip for an early end than the other way around. I'm sickly tired of punting the first 4-6 weeks of met winter. Backloaded sucks. By the time it finally snows it feels like the end is already in sight. Not to mention the sun angle. It's hard to enjoy March snow when it's gone in 3 days despite sub-freezing temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It makes the most sense compared the EPS based on past history. This doesn't look like hit and run blocking so if you lean on previous experiences, the GEFS (and even GFS) is more believable in general. We're still 4-5 days away from getting the west based NAO blocking going. Once that's inserted into initialization math I have a hunch that the EPS will start backing off its more aggressive shift away from a -ao/nao. Just a hunch. If the EPS sticks to it's guns through the weekend and/or the GEFS starts caving I'll change my mind but not until then. If the long wave pattern on Dec 1 looks vaguely similar to what the 18z GEFS advertises for that date, I'll be quite thrilled. And if you squint (and extrapolate...), EPS starts improving things on the west coast around Day 13 after breaking things down in the Day 9-12 period. But in either case, doesn't appear to be a overtly hostile pattern locking in for at least the next two weeks, quite the opposite obviously, which is already way ahead of where the last 2 years have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: How often do we get to actually track interesting weather in the fall. I don't know about you but I personally get real bored tracking sunny and 60 . Screw shorts on Turkey day as well. GEFS looks really sweet late. A touch of +pna/-epo thrown in the mix. I can easily extrapolate the vort near TX into a MA event. lol. Not a bad look for a 16 day smoothed mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS looks really sweet late. A touch of +pna/-epo thrown in the mix. I can easily extrapolate the vort near TX into a MA event. lol. Not a bad look for a 16 day smoothed mean When the day 10+ means show more than just 0 - 3 degrees below average means, I'd link to think that we're in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Epic blocking in November yields mid-to-upper 30s and flurries. Yippie. Infinitely better than shorts and T-shirts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: Not to mention the sun angle. It's hard to enjoy March snow when it's gone in 3 hours despite sub-freezing temperatures FYP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 I'll tell you what else I like seeing, and that's all that AN water in the Pacific west of Mexico. It was there in fall 2013, and I think it's doing 2 things for us, namely, giving the Nina a hard time and time is fast running out for it to hurt us bad and second, aiding in a quasi-Niño flow off the Pacific. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's as good as a real Niño, but it is a large area with substantial +anomalies. I can't help but believe it's acting to juice the flow from the sw. https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'll tell you what else I like seeing, and that's all that AN water in the Pacific west of Mexico. It was there in fall 2013, and I think it's doing 2 things for us, namely, giving the Nina a hard time and time is fast running out for it to hurt us bad and second, aiding in a quasi-Niño flow off the Pacific. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's as good as a real Niño, but it is a large area with substantial +anomalies. I can't help but believe it's acting to juice the flow from the sw. https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif I was wondering what the impact of that anom west of mex would have...wonder if it could help to deflect what would be an easy western trough by pumping a ridge in the SW? You can see the GEFS has a ridge that seems to pop just north of that feature and it is relatively stable through the run....maybe having a bias for a ridge in that location will make it a little more difficult for the mean ridge to shift east allowing a trough in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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