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November Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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18 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:


That is flips the NPAC.


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If you are quite not sure what I am referring to you can go back to a previous post I made on it. Page 16 in this thread about a quarter of the way down (Monday 8:32 am). Sorry it is really long winded but I hope it gives you an idea.

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This made me lol. That's pretty much what a great November pattern will bring in general in any year. The climo corner really doesn't turn until the first week of Dec. 


What I do not understand is why March is easier to get snow than November. In terms of how far away the months are from meteorological winter it is the same.



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1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said:


What I do not understand is why March is easier to get snow than November. In terms of how far away the months are from meteorological winter it is the same.



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Background conditions are VASTLY different in March. Much colder ocean temps on both sides of the continent and much more expansive hemispheric snow and ice cover. Other than daylight hours, there isn't much comparison between the 2. 

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1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said:


What I do not understand is why March is easier to get snow than November. In terms of how far away the months are from meteorological winter it is the same.



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I tend to think of it like this: You know how Dec. 21st is the shortest day of the year, but isn't the coldest day of the year? For D.C, that typically resides in mid-late January as far as I can remember. If must just be an effect that wears off later in March than Summer/Fall wear off. I mean, we've seen our fair share of cold, everything just isn't as perfect, especially with climo.

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs is candy for sure

It makes the most sense compared the EPS based on past history. This doesn't look like hit and run blocking so if you lean on previous experiences, the GEFS (and even GFS) is more believable in general. We're still 4-5 days away from getting the west based NAO blocking going. Once that's inserted into initialization math I have a hunch that the EPS will start backing off its more aggressive shift away from a -ao/nao. Just a hunch. If the EPS sticks to it's guns through the weekend and/or the GEFS starts caving I'll change my mind but not until then. 

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I can get on board with a chilly November though. If I don't have to wear shorts and turn on the AC I'm happy.

Me too. Seeing such a stout blocking event unfold could be a sign that this winter will be much different in that regard than the last 6. Dec snow is hard to come by without multiple pieces coming together. I'm heading up to SW CT for the holiday and I'm very much looking forward to cold if it happens. I'm also looking forward to the chance at a legit threat on the radar when I get back in town. Even our best winters have extended crap warm periods. I'd much prefer a strong start and have the switch flip for an early end than the other way around. I'm sickly tired of punting the first 4-6 weeks of met winter. Backloaded sucks. By the time it finally snows it feels like the end is already in sight. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Me too. Seeing such a stout blocking event unfold could be a sign that this winter will be much different in that regard than the last 6. Dec snow is hard to come by without multiple pieces coming together. I'm heading up to SW CT for the holiday and I'm very much looking forward to cold if it happens. I'm also looking forward to the chance at a legit threat on the radar when I get back in town. Even our best winters have extended crap warm periods. I'd much prefer a strong start and have the switch flip for an early end than the other way around. I'm sickly tired of punting the first 4-6 weeks of met winter. Backloaded sucks. By the time it finally snows it feels like the end is already in sight. 

Not to mention the sun angle. It's hard to enjoy March snow when it's gone in 3 days despite sub-freezing temperatures

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It makes the most sense compared the EPS based on past history. This doesn't look like hit and run blocking so if you lean on previous experiences, the GEFS (and even GFS) is more believable in general. We're still 4-5 days away from getting the west based NAO blocking going. Once that's inserted into initialization math I have a hunch that the EPS will start backing off its more aggressive shift away from a -ao/nao. Just a hunch. If the EPS sticks to it's guns through the weekend and/or the GEFS starts caving I'll change my mind but not until then. 

If the long wave pattern on Dec 1 looks vaguely similar to what the 18z GEFS advertises for that date, I'll be quite thrilled.  And if you squint (and extrapolate...), EPS starts improving things on the west coast around Day 13 after breaking things down in the Day 9-12 period.  But in either case, doesn't appear to be a overtly hostile pattern locking in for at least the next two weeks, quite the opposite obviously, which is already way ahead of where the last 2 years have been.  

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

How often do we get to actually track interesting weather in the fall.  I don't know about you but I personally get real bored tracking sunny and 60 .  Screw shorts on Turkey day  as well. 

GEFS looks really sweet late. A touch of +pna/-epo thrown in the mix. I can easily extrapolate the vort near TX into a MA event. lol. Not a bad look for a 16 day smoothed mean

 

gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_65.png

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS looks really sweet late. A touch of +pna/-epo thrown in the mix. I can easily extrapolate the vort near TX into a MA event. lol. Not a bad look for a 16 day smoothed mean

 

gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_65.png

When the day 10+ means show more than just 0 - 3 degrees below average means, I'd link to think that we're in business

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I'll tell you what else I like seeing, and that's all that AN water in the Pacific west of Mexico.  It was there in fall 2013, and I think it's doing  2 things for us, namely, giving the Nina a hard time and time is fast running out for it to hurt us bad and second, aiding in a quasi-Niño flow off the Pacific.  Don't get me wrong,  I'm not saying it's as good as a real Niño,  but it is a large area with substantial +anomalies. I can't help but believe it's acting to juice the flow from the sw.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif

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13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll tell you what else I like seeing, and that's all that AN water in the Pacific west of Mexico.  It was there in fall 2013, and I think it's doing  2 things for us, namely, giving the Nina a hard time and time is fast running out for it to hurt us bad and second, aiding in a quasi-Niño flow off the Pacific.  Don't get me wrong,  I'm not saying it's as good as a real Niño,  but it is a large area with substantial +anomalies. I can't help but believe it's acting to juice the flow from the sw.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif

I was wondering what the impact of that anom west of mex would have...wonder if it could help to deflect what would be an easy western trough by pumping a ridge in the SW?   You can see the GEFS has a ridge that seems to pop just north of that feature and it is relatively stable through the run....maybe having a bias for a ridge in that location will make it a little more difficult for the mean ridge to shift east allowing a trough in the west.

gefs_z500a_nh_29.thumb.png.cf971c00b4ed4503b1ee61529ddea81e.png

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