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November Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...noticed that too. Hard not to get semi excited.:weenie:

It will be interesting to see what shakes out the first week of Nov. GEFS teleconnection spread is pretty huge right now. AO ranges from -3 to +2 SD's out in time. Ensemble mean has so much spread it's hard to figure out which way things are going to go. GEFS d10-15 flipped to ridging in the east last couple runs and now 12z basically says flip a coin. lol. 12z gefs does show the cold dump signal into the the upper MW so I guess you could say there is "some" support for the op. 

I do like seeing AN heights around the pole and GL consistently showing up on the ens in early Nov. That's probably the single most important takeaway regardless of whether we ridge or trough down the line. 

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...noticed that too. Hard not to get semi excited.:weenie:

I am getting a little more then semi-excited and not just because of this one run. The last few weeks have given me a strong suspicion that the typical Nina look all the seasonal are throwing out at this point can probably be trashed, at least for the first half of winter. Now whether we benefit from any possible change is yet to be seen but I like my chances if we see the blocking and the weakened/perturbed PV that I am increasingly believing we will see. Still early in the game so things can still go south but at this point I like where we are.

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This is unusual and a great example of why I think models are having a very hard time deciphering where we are going into Nov. 

 

5 day h5 mean shows AN heights in our area:

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.png

 

But 5 day mean 2m temps are BN. I can't think of a time I've ever seen 5 day mean AN heights and BN temps. My guess is some members are showing some fairly extreme cold solutions in the mix:

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_nhem_12.png

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Regrading Bobs post about AN heights and BN temps, I think you can see that with the strong ridging over the pole and the displacement of cold air south into Canada, that’s just showing that our source regions are very cold and some of it leaks into our area. And strong cold fronts following storms riding to our west where the cold behind the fronts are colder relative to average than the warm air ahead of the front.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Day 15 Eps mean 500mb looks even better then 0z  with GL ridging especially and as well as nice ridging in western Can.and Alaska.

It doesn't get much better than that for this time of year even if winter sucks later on! :snowman:

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33 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

It doesn't get much better than that for this time of year even if winter sucks later on! :snowman:

Absolutely that would be some real cold rain for the lower elevations if precipitation were associated with that pattern with possible rain mixed with snow changing all snow at elevation above 2000 feet including skyline Drive.  

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37 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Im in the camp of ...I rather see a good pattern show up now and have it reshuffle then torch all the way to Christmas praying for a total shakeup.

That's pretty much exactly where I'm at too. I would like Nov as a whole to end up looking like a decent winter pattern. Not expecting meaningful snow or anything. Just hoping that if peristence is going to be a theme this winter, hopefully a good Nov base state translates into a decent start to met winter. 

That and I'm pretty sick of AN temps during the turkey day to Xmas period. We haven't had a front loaded winter since 10-11. Spending the first 30-45 days of met winter analyzing 15 day pattern change prayers is f'n annoying.

The personality of winter isn't always captured with snow totals. I'd be completely satisfied with 75% of climo snow if it all comes before Feb and we have enough cold to safely skate on ponds or the canal. Getting a 6" event in Dec or Jan that doesn't melt even on south facing hills for a week or more is what I'd consider "deep winter" in the MA. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

That's pretty much exactly where I'm at too. I would like Nov as a whole to end up looking like a decent winter pattern. Not expecting meaningful snow or anything. Just hoping that if peristence is going to be a theme this winter, hopefully a good Nov base state translates into a decent start to met winter. 

That and I'm pretty sick of AN temps during the turkey day to Xmas period. We haven't had a front loaded winter since 10-11. Spending the first 30-45 days of met winter analyzing 15 day pattern change prayers is f'n annoying.

The personality of winter isn't always captured with snow totals. I'd be completely satisfied with 75% of climo snow if it all comes before Feb and we have enough cold to safely skate on ponds or the canal. Getting a 6" event in Dec or Jan that doesn't melt even on south facing hills for a week or more is what I'd consider "deep winter" in the MA. 

This seems so long ago, but it was March 1 2015. Frozen bay with snow cover. Love to see this again.

ice.thumb.jpg.434ea2c1ec1a53b2c425d9f8edf94827.jpg

 

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March 14 and 15 will go down as the best back back to back deep winter Marches in my life. I still (hopefully. Lol) have a few more decades left but I doubt i see a repeat.

The thing about March though is even with highs well below freezing, snow still easily melts off of pavement and basically evaporates on south faces. Sun angle is real. Still some pretty incredible cold smoke events in those 2 winters. 15 was probably the best back loaded winter ever in this area. Didn't even get going until valentine's day...after suffering through superbowl sunday...despair was abundant to say the least at that point...haha 

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Thought I would have a little fun with what the Panasonic model was showing in the extended. This is at day 15 and the Panasonic control model to boot so don't take this as a forecast whatsoever.

First off I wanted to show a quick example of what I was referring to when I mentioned smoothing yesterday in the longer ranges of the ensemble models. Below is a pic from the Panasonic Ensembles of the Jet at day 15 coming off the Pac into the CONUS. Notice the smooth uninterrupted flow across the Pacific through the US denoted by the arrow? We are seeing very little in the way of troughs nor ridges through the US and the US would be flooded with warm Pacific air. But also notice how wide it is showing the Jet denoted between the two black lines. This is indicative of a wide spread within the individual members. Also wanted to point out that we also have a fairly strong signal for a subtropical jet undercutting the Pac Jet.

P_200mbAssem_75.png

 

Now below we have an individual member (Control) of the Panasonic Ensembles. Now notice the stark contrast of the flow across the Pac and through the CONUS from the mean of the ensembles from above? No comparison. 


 

P_200mbControl_75.png

Now look specifically at what we have in the way of Jets on the Control model at day 15. We have the Pac Jet being split into two in the central Pacific forming a polar jet (top red line) and the Pac jet continuing to the south of that (middle red line). We also see a sub tropical undercutting the PAC. Now notice that the PAC and the subtropical jets are touching in the southwest. And above that we see the polar jet. Looking in the east we have ridging into Greenland (-NAO) and we have a low under cutting that moving towards the 50/50 spot.

This look is primed for a major storm somewhere from the Midwest into the east. The polar jet is dropping southward with very cold temps, with a good possibility of interaction between it, the PAC and quite possibly the subtropical jet as well. Both the PAC and subtropical of which are bringing moist warm air northward towards the southwest. We have a stable -NAO in place with a potential 50/50 as well. Not shown on this map is the fact that there was a cutoff low that gets ejected a day and a half before hand that could possibly play into the future evolution of the pattern depending on the timing of the ejection. Now how this setup would play out 2-3 days down the road would be anyone's guess. I think chances favor a major storm, it would be the track that would be in question. And for those on the east coast the fact that we are seeing a -NAO as well as a 50/50 showing up is a huge positive.

 

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One of my favorite stretches of winter weather was back in '89 when we had solid cold and repeated clippers from Thanksgiving to Christmas. We had deep winter cold and snow cover the entire time. I remember getting in trouble with the police for skating on Rocky Gorge even though it was rock solid.

Also, here's a pic from the same day Cape shot the one above but from the western shore. It would be so much better to have these scenes in December rather than March.

DSC_0592.thumb.jpg.2f9b63f54258598ee4d35ba14c20a7de.jpg

 

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3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

One of my favorite stretches of winter weather was back in '89 when we had solid cold and repeated clippers from Thanksgiving to Christmas. We had deep winter cold and snow cover the entire time. I remember getting in trouble with the police for skating on Rocky Gorge even though it was rock solid.

Also, here's a pic from the same day Cape shot the one above but from the western shore. It would be so much better to have these scenes in December rather than March.

DSC_0592.thumb.jpg.2f9b63f54258598ee4d35ba14c20a7de.jpg

 

Nice shot. I remember seeing this photo back then. And agreed it would be nice to see some persistent cold early, but unfortunately things generally dont roll that way in this region. It does seem like our best chances of wintery weather will be the first half of winter this time around though. Lets hope the early positive indicators dont completely go to hell over the next several weeks.

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18 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Absolutely that would be some real cold rain for the lower elevations if precipitation were associated with that pattern with possible rain mixed with snow changing all snow at elevation above 2000 feet including skyline Drive.  

The lack of archived upper air maps available sucks, but I did come across an interesting one from NOAA. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20111030.html

Modeling for next week looks so similar to me!  Notice how far north the 540 line was that day.  We need the trough to tilt slightly negative for the goods.

dwm500_test_20111029.gif

eps

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_5.png

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I was re-reading Accuwwethers 2016-17 winter forecast.   It was less than accurate for the east coast.  Frequent cold and snow.   It didn't quite happen like that if memory serves.  The truth is no one really knows what will happen.  Fun to speculate but I will take it week by week this year and pace myself.  

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, all ops and ens are on the -AO train going into early Nov. I scanned the monthly AO data and there's only 1 winter (98-99) that had a +AO after Nov being -.7 or lower. Every other winter had the average AO negative for DJF. 

Is this the year that ends the +AO streak?

I am really starting to get the urge to renew my weatherbell subscription already. I will resist tho, because I know damn well what will happen if I do lol.

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Read Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter tonight, in the final paragraph his the long range section he doesn't seem to be to excited about a big winter along the Eastern Seaboard but did say it it would be less "non-wintry" then last year. Something tells me when he releases his winter outlook it may be rather disappointing for our area and if I recall correctly his call for last winter was pretty good. But we will see.

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