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November Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That doesn’t bode well for me. Life’s moving at light speed right now.

It seems to go by progressively faster with age, beginning about the time you realize the world is bigger than just your neighborhood. It gets "worse" from there, as you start to approach a point where as much (and then more) or your life is behind you than ahead. Ok, back to winter 2009-2010..

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20 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Time moves a lot faster once you have kids.

I've noticed this and it's terrifying. I've been out of college now for about 12 years and it seems like those years have passed quickly. I've had a kid now for almost three years and time is just flying. If only there was a way to slow it down.

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52 minutes ago, mappy said:

Only just saw the DT Aleet on twitter. Guess I should start paying attention to weather again :lol: 

Aleeting is the kiss of death for a storm.  Similar to starting a thread too early.  We won’t see it show up again until next ThanksgIving.  

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41 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Time moves a lot faster once you have kids.

It does. You have a much greater sense of time because you see it progressing as your kids grow. If you don't have kids, you don't really have that perspective - things just kind of happen around you. Kids provide that focal point that makes it plainly obvious how time moves forward.

On topic: I hope my kids see a lot of snow this winter.

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17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Speaking of life comes at you fast...6z GEFS caved to the EPS after thanksgiving.

It seems inevitable for the reasons you mentioned yesterday. Although 6z is not bad in the NPAC, its a step back from 0z, and you can almost see rolling it forward how it could pretty quickly go right back to an Aleutian Ridge/GOA trough.

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33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Panic Room might be off to a fast start after all!

If losing a storm on black friday causes mass panic then this place will be ridic all winter.  i'm not ready to be all pinkying posts while trying to shop online and eat leftovers when meltdowns happen over day 7+ storms that don't occur.

 

Climo people.  Remember what time of year it is and slow your roll

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17 minutes ago, H2O said:

If losing a storm on black friday causes mass panic then this place will be ridic all winter.  i'm not ready to be all pinkying posts while trying to shop online and eat leftovers when meltdowns happen over day 7+ storms that don't occur.

 

Climo people.  Remember what time of year it is and slow your roll

Exactly what you said. If I recall, the last time D.C had 1" of snow in November was in the 90s. I'm hoping this potential warmup sets up for a flip-flop and then we go back into -NAO/-AO for early-mid December. 

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Recap of the 12z GFS: makes the GEM look consistent. Goes from showing torch out Northwest to freezing the entire western 2/3rds of the country, including Texas. I still think it's safe to say that the GFS is out of it's prime range, and it may be better to just put more weight in the ensembles.

 

5a0c6e403f2f6_gfs_T2ma_us_41(1).thumb.png.52c5bf20610039ca1c919e78bb23f942.png

Last Rungfs_T2ma_us_40.png

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1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

I wouldn't trust the GFS at this range. It goes from 44 degrees on Thanksgiving day to 60 in 1 run. I mean, for all it's worth it could be right. but after being pretty consistent it's consistency has left the building

Looking at 2m temps at range on the GFS probably isn't the wisest way to utilize the model.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Look at this consistency!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh174_trend.gif

 

That's about par for the course for the GFS at range. Euro is much more consistent with its op runs.

Gefs has been a rock though. Just glanced back through 29 runs and there has been very little deviation whatsoever. Would slideshow it but am not sure how to. 

 

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

That's about par for the course for the GFS at range. Euro is much more consistent with its op runs.

Gefs has been a rock though. Just glanced back through 29 runs and there has been very little deviation whatsoever. Would slideshow it but am not sure how to. 

 

Yes, much better.  

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_fh192_trend.gif

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Tropical Tidbits has the "TREND GIF" button and it downloads automatically.  Very helpful.  

Greatly appreciated. Thank you.

 

1 minute ago, smokeybandit said:

Use the Forecast Gif button on the model page, then pick which hours of the run you want it to span

I don't have the forums model package just weatherbell. But thank you anyway.

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