November Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

12z EPS continues the trend.. it has other ideas about where the pattern is going day 10 and beyond. Starkly different than the GFS/GEFS.

eta- there may be some hints of improvement in the NPAC towards day 15, or it might just be due to smoothing. Otherwise days 10 to 15 feature +850t anomalies pretty much everywhere other than AK and west coast.

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z EPS continues the trend.. it has other ideas about where the pattern is going day 10 and beyond. Starkly different than the GFS/GEFS.

Actually it looks as if it is trying to flip the NPAC as well. Just going about it a little differently then the GEFS.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually it looks as if it is trying to flip the NPAC as well. Just going about it a little differently then the GEFS.

Yes I noticed that- see my eta

[CAPE]

Ultimately I would rather get the NPAC "right" as we move into December, and hopefully the AO will start heading more negative again after a bit of relaxation. I would gladly take what the EPS is offering if it means we get a favorable pattern in mid to late December, where it is much more likely to produce something interesting.

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yes I noticed that- see my eta

Starting to believe the flip may be real and not a figment of my deranged snow starved mind.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ultimately I would rather get the NPAC "right" as we move into December, and hopefully the AO will start heading more negative again after a bit of relaxation. I would gladly take what the EPS is offering if it means we get a favorable pattern in mid to late December, where it is much more likely to produce something interesting.

I'm with you. Though I like what I am seeing with the models on the upcoming period I would gladly sacrifice it for not having to fight  with a GOA low/trough in December when climo is more favorable for snow.

eta: And I do believe we see the AO and the NAO bounce back.

[Eskimo Joe]

57 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ultimately I would rather get the NPAC "right" as we move into December, and hopefully the AO will start heading more negative again after a bit of relaxation. I would gladly take what the EPS is offering if it means we get a favorable pattern in mid to late December, where it is much more likely to produce something interesting.

Yup.  NPAC gets us 2/3rds of the way there.

[Cobalt]

GFS drier, but colder too

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Next Wed/Thursday/Fri looking like winter 30s each day n+w . ..flurry watch Sunday and esp Turkey weekend 

Suppose it’s not too bad cold wise but certainly no sign of the gulf low.  I almost wish it didn’t show up on the euro because now I’m gonna be looking for itt

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Lets get the cold then the vorts will follow. One thing for sure .. 0z will be a  different outcome.

Yes very true... but I really really want it to snow.  

[Bob Chill]

I'm enjoying the ens model war right now. My hunch is the gefs/gps will end up being more correct than the EPS in this case. The strong blocking being shown in the med range should  be stubborn in general. The EPS progression d10-15 seems too aggressive in lowering heights and surface pressure in the AO domain. That's a big part of why the EPS evolves (or should I say devolves..lol) into a more hostile npac/GOA than other guidance. 

 

ETA: I agree with everyone that there is some potential for winter wx in these parts next week. Getting late enough in the month for the climo battle to be less difficult. Really needs to hit on all cylinders though. I don't care how many op runs show something in the d10-12 range. Looks good on paper but decent accum snow in Nov is quite rare for a lot of reasons. I'll start biting if something discreet comes into focus inside of d7. 

[Cobalt]

GEFS wetter than last run

[poolz1]

It's not a bad thing when the most stable feature in the NH on the GEFS is higher heights over baffin bay/davis strait.  Looping the entire run, it's pretty impressive...doesnt mean its correct but it sure is nice to see for a change.     

 

[WxUSAF]

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm enjoying the ens model war right now. My hunch is the gefs/gps will end up being more correct than the EPS in this case. The strong blocking being shown in the med range should  be stubborn in general. The EPS progression d10-15 seems too aggressive in lowering heights and surface pressure in the AO domain. That's a big part of why the EPS evolves (or should I say devolves..lol) into a more hostile npac/GOA than other guidance. 

 

ETA: I agree with everyone that there is some potential for winter wx in these parts next week. Getting late enough in the month for the climo battle to be less difficult. Really needs to hit on all cylinders though. I don't care how many op runs show something in the d10-12 range. Looks good on paper but decent accum snow in Nov is quite rare for a lot of reasons. I'll start biting if something discreet comes into focus inside of d7. 

I'm really rooting for the GEFS as it maintains (or even suggests an improvement) of a favorable pattern in D10-15.  But even besides the fact that GEFS vs. EPS more often than not ends up a certain way, what gives me caution is that the EPS breaks down the pattern into a very classic -PDO/Nina which is obviously supported by the broad scale Pacific forcing.  That said, you're certainly right that blocking is stubborn usually, so it hopefully won't fall apart after only 5-10 days of hanging around in the first place. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I'm really rooting for the GEFS as it maintains (or even suggests an improvement) of a favorable pattern in D10-15.  But even besides the fact that GEFS vs. EPS more often than not ends up a certain way, what gives me caution is that the EPS breaks down the pattern into a very classic -PDO/Nina which is obviously supported by the broad scale Pacific forcing.  That said, you're certainly right that blocking is stubborn usually, so it hopefully won't fall apart after only 5-10 days of hanging around in the first place. 

Yea, would be nice to have door to door perfect pattern from mid nov through mid march. But that happens like never so I'm just glad we're having a legit early season blocking event for the first time in 7 years. It's all trop driven so that gives a little bit of pause but we'll just have to see how it all plays out and hope for the best and be prepared for the same ole same ole. lol

[Wonderdog]

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Suppose it’s not too bad cold wise but certainly no sign of the gulf low.  I almost wish it didn’t show up on the euro because now I’m gonna be looking for itt

You know that it being nine days out or so that low will appear and disapear with each run. If the NAO drops like a rock which appears to be a possibility, there will be  a coastal low. Track and intensity tbd.

[Amped]

35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Remember this

When I'm on my deathbead and my brain is rotting I think the 2009-2010 winter is the last thing I'll forget, right after my name

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

When I'm on my deathbead and my brain is rotting I think the 2009-2010 winter is the last thing I'll forget, right after my name

You're kinda making me jealous since I was too young to enjoy it from a standpoint such as from this weather forum

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm enjoying the ens model war right now. My hunch is the gefs/gps will end up being more correct than the EPS in this case. The strong blocking being shown in the med range should  be stubborn in general. The EPS progression d10-15 seems too aggressive in lowering heights and surface pressure in the AO domain. That's a big part of why the EPS evolves (or should I say devolves..lol) into a more hostile npac/GOA than other guidance. 

 

ETA: I agree with everyone that there is some potential for winter wx in these parts next week. Getting late enough in the month for the climo battle to be less difficult. Really needs to hit on all cylinders though. I don't care how many op runs show something in the d10-12 range. Looks good on paper but decent accum snow in Nov is quite rare for a lot of reasons. I'll start biting if something discreet comes into focus inside of d7. 

I'm glad to see that your liking the GEFS vs EPS and hope your right about the EPS rushing the cold air out too quickly.  Through years of watching and learning, it crossed my mind.  Hoping to see the next few EPS runs trend away from the ridging out in flyovervilles...or at least belly under the block.  I'd take zonal in that setup w/ minor events popping out of the northern stream.  

Nut

[nj2va]

43 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Remember this

 

One of my favorite storms.  It was my first storm in DC that I tracked and invested so much time in - ha! I was fooled into thinking every winter was like that in DC   If the upcoming pattern holds, looks like I need to head out to our house in McHenry after spending Thanksgiving day in NJ.  NEED MOAR SNOW

[CAPE]

Now this would be a really nice look heading into December:

[showmethesnow]

Just glanced over the overnight runs.

Not a big fan of the look the GEFS had for the possible East Coast storm for shortly after Thanksgiving (maybe late Thanksgiving?). Strong positive tilt on the southern portion of the trough suggests anything that may develop in the gulf/southeast would be quickly shunted out to sea. Another feature I don't like is that the run plants a piece of the PV into southeastern Canada towards NE. Depending on placement it will quite often times play hell on our chances here in the mid-Atlantic and especially north. Depending on how far south that gets it will quite often times suppress systems to our south and/or not allow a system to amplify until OTS. This feature has popped up on the occasional run so it is a feature we need to keep an eye on but I wouldn't get overly worked up about it at this point. One positive I did see is that it looks as if the GEFS is now presenting another opportunity for a storm in the day 12-13 period shortly after the possible first storm. On a side not the GEF flips the NPAC by day 13-14.

Now as far as the EPS I am not going to spend much time on it. The run to run consistency on this potential storm just has not been there like we have seen with the GEFS and to be honest the latest run's evolution seems wonky to me. So take what it throws out with caution. At this point the EPS seems to favor Gulf development with a positive tilted trough extending into the gulf. Like the GEFS it also features a PV located in SE Canada. The overall look suggests a possible system running through the deep south and OTS with little amplification. As far as the NPAC the extended still suggests the EPS is possibly still trying to work through a flip.

Quick comment on the GEPS. It actually has a pretty good look for our possible storm (roughly turkey day) and also has another opportunity presenting itself at day 16. Interestingly enough it is flipping the NPAC more rapidly then we have seen on any of the models. Breaks down the GOA trough/low by roughly day 9 replacing it with a +PNA. We then see a piece of the PV rotate into the Aleutian/Western Alaska region by day eleven. End of the run features expansive ridging in the west from the southwest all the way to the polar regions with the PV located to its west. 

 

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Now this would be a really nice look heading into December:

Check out the GEPS at the end of the run. That is not far off from being a great look for us. Would like to see a 50/50 thrown in to back the flow and then we would be talking.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just glanced over the overnight runs.

Not a big fan of the look the GEFS had for the possible East Coast storm for shortly after Thanksgiving (maybe late Thanksgiving?). Strong positive tilt on the southern portion of the trough suggests anything that may develop in the gulf/southeast would be quickly shunted out to sea. Another feature I don't like is that the run plants a piece of the PV into southeastern Canada towards NE. Depending on placement it will quite often times play hell on our chances here in the mid-Atlantic and especially north. Depending on how far south that gets it will quite often times suppress systems to our south and/or not allow a system to amplify until OTS. This feature has popped up on the occasional run so it is a feature we need to keep an eye on but I wouldn't get overly worked up about it at this point. One positive I did see is that it looks as if the GEFS is now presenting another opportunity for a storm in the day 12-13 period shortly after the possible first storm. On a side not the GEF flips the NPAC by day 13-14.

Now as far as the EPS I am not going to spend much time on it. The run to run consistency on this potential storm just has not been there like we have seen with the GEFS and to be honest the latest run's evolution seems wonky to me. So take what it throws out with caution. At this point the EPS seems to favor Gulf development with a positive tilted trough extending into the gulf. Like the GEFS it also features a PV located in SE Canada. The overall look suggests a possible system running through the deep south and OTS with little amplification. As far as the NPAC the extended still suggests the EPS is possibly still trying to work through a flip.

Quick comment on the GEPS. It actually has a pretty good look for our possible storm (roughly turkey day) and also has another opportunity presenting itself at day 16. Interestingly enough it is flipping the NPAC more rapidly then we have seen on any of the models. Breaks down the GOA trough/low by roughly day 9 replacing it with a +PNA. We then see a piece of the PV rotate into the Aleutian/Western Alaska region by day eleven. End of the run features expansive ridging in the west from the southwest all the way to the polar regions with the PV located to its west. 

 

Nice write up as usual. I am not very enthused about the upcoming cold period for any potential storm. It will be nice having some chilly air around for the holiday for a change. I am completely focused on December now.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Check out the GEPS at the end of the run. That is not far off from being a great look for us. Would like to see a 50/50 thrown in to back the flow and then we would be talking.

I actually did. Agree it is also a pretty good look. EPS is not there yet, and looks sort of ambiguous. Honestly I am not sure where it would be heading beyond day 15, although looking at it optimistically, the NPAC seems to be heading in the right direction. AO looks somewhat positive, NAO probably neutral.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I actually did. Agree it is also a pretty good look. EPS is not there yet, and looks sort of ambiguous. Honestly I am not sure where it would be heading beyond day 15, although looking at it optimistically, the NPAC seems to be heading in the right direction. AO looks somewhat positive, NAO probably neutral.

The GEFS and the GEPS are really starting to hammer away at a NPAC flip whereas the EPS has been luke warm at best. I think that is why we are seeing such ambiguity with the EPS forecasts in the longer range as it try to sort things out. Until it does I would take anything it presents with a huge grain of salt. Of course this is assuming that the GEFS and the GEPS are correct.  

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nice write up as usual. I am not very enthused about the upcoming cold period for any potential storm. It will be nice having some chilly air around for the holiday for a change. I am completely focused on December now.

I still like the potential in that period of time for a storm (rain/ snow???). Really think it will come down to where we see the pv placement in Canada during that stretch if in fact there is one. Seen hints of a 50/50 as well which is encouraging and would probably argue somewhat from seeing a PV in SE Canada. Nothing to do about it except track until we get better clarity.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

 

I still like the potential in that period of time for a storm (rain/ snow???). Really think it will come down to where we see the pv placement in Canada during that stretch if in fact there is one. Seen hints of a 50/50 as well which is encouraging and would probably argue somewhat from seeing a PV in SE Canada. Nothing to do about it except track until we get better clarity.

Yup, and I will casually watch it. We have had several GFS op runs hinting at something in recent days, and of course the 12z Euro op run yesterday. If we see more runs like that in the coming days, and some semblance of support shows up on the ensembles, my interest and enthusiasm will increase lol.

[mappy]

Only just saw the DT Aleet on twitter. Guess I should start paying attention to weather again  

[mattie g]

11 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Remember this

<snip>

Yes.

It was almost as if that storm (and that winter) took place in another lifetime. Earlier that year, Lady g and I had gotten married, adopted a dog, and moved into our first house. No kids and pretty much no responsibilities except for getting up, taking the pup out, going to work, and paying the bills. Yet it seems like it happened only yesterday!

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yes.

It was almost as if that storm (and that winter) took place in another lifetime. Earlier that year, Lady g and I had gotten married, adopted a dog, and moved into our first house. No kids and pretty much no responsibilities except for getting up, taking the pup out, going to work, and paying the bills. Yet it seems like it happened only yesterday!

Time moves a lot faster once you have kids.