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November Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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18 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

@showmethesnow

Thanks! Real nice breakdown man. I feel i got a real good handle on H5 recognition inside 7 days but beyond I'd like to expand that knowledge.  Clippers definitely favored..but hey..we take what we can esp this early. Im going to continue to watch that 10-12 time frame :D

Glad it was understandable. It is really hard for me to write down my thoughts so quite often I go back and reread what i have posted just to go WTF as I am sure many others do after reading some of my posts.

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16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Pretty good ensemble agreement on a cold Thanksgiving weekend...Keep it coming!

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

gfs-ens_T850a_namer_48.png

And the averages keep dropping, so it will be cold for the first time in a number of Thanksgivings. I love going to Gettysburg and Hagerstown outlets on Black Friday when it's cold instead of the carp we've had the last few.

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It’s good that the Euro is hanging on to the blocky pattern. GFS has kind of fallen off the wagon in that regard. It tried to pump up heights over Greenland but it’s transient and looks nothing like the Euro by day 10. At least for the operational runs. Haven’t looked at the ensembles yet.

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13 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

It’s good that the Euro is hanging on to the blocky pattern. GFS has kind of fallen off the wagon in that regard. It tried to pump up heights over Greenland but it’s transient and looks nothing like the Euro by day 10. At least for the operational runs. Haven’t looked at the ensembles yet.

EPS and GEFS are both very similar with the overall pattern through day 12. Legit blocking, and west based. Things relax a bit on the EPS towards days 12-15, more zonal with average heights in the east. GEFS still amplified with a cold look in the east at that time.

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33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Granted, I'm still not looking awfully closely, but I don't really see any red flags yet in the LR. The blocking is there. The pattern isn't hostile in the ATL or PAC. It'd be normal IMO to see things relax a bit after such an amplified and anomalously cold period. As long as it doesn't look like the pattern snaps to crap/torch, I think we're in ok shape. 

I really really like what has been happening in Canada.

Yup. Some relaxation is inevitable, and if there is a nitpick it would be in the epac and the GOA trough. The weeklies had some improvement down the line into December with more ridging out west and hints of a -EPO. We shall see what the new edition offers up.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z Euro op is...interesting. Hope that doesn't represent the beginning of a trend lol. Wow what difference from previous runs.

I wouldn't put much faith in the ops this far our. What is good is that the trends point to a cold Thanksgiving week, and so do the ensembles

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z Euro op is...interesting. Hope that doesn't represent the beginning of a trend lol. Wow what difference from previous runs.

We have digital snow thread...perhaps we need digital blocking thread.  We have had plenty of good modeled patterns go south as you know. So I believe nothing I see in the runs until 5 days out. 

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Just now, Cobalt said:

I wouldn't put much faith in the ops this far our. What is good is that the trends point to a cold Thanksgiving week, and so do the ensembles

Yeah, I dont. Just an observation based on the run. That is a pretty big shift from previous runs, both out west and with the strength/position of the developing NA ridge.

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

We have digital snow thread...perhaps we need digital blocking thread.  We have had plenty of good modeled patterns go south as you know. So I believe nothing I see in the runs until 5 days out. 

Yeah as many times as it has failed in recent years, we get still sucked in every time when we see a great modeled -NAO, lol.

I wouldn't worry yet, unless the EPS has similar changes.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah as many times as it has failed in recent years, we get still sucked in every time when we see a great modeled -NAO, lol.

I wouldn't worry yet, unless the EPS has similar changes.

The EPS has some good redeeming qualities. Didn't change much from the last run

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Crisis averted for now.  Back to holiday mode.  

lol. No crisis. Impressive shift on the op though between 0z and 12z. Just something to keep an eye on.

I've been outside doing leaf removal since this morning. Totally lost track of time. I came in, grabbed a beer and looked at the op run- didn't even look at the EPS because I didn't think it was out yet. 

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I admittedly have not been paying much attention to it because its been way out there, but I was just looking at the GEFS and EPS members for the last few runs, and there is a fairly persistent, weak signal for a coastal storm in the 10-14 day range, maybe centered on the Friday-Saturday period after T-day. Even the op GFS the last 2 runs has suggested something developing along the trailing front from a low heading to our NW. 12z even had some snow in eastern NC and VA tidewater. I think this is the period @showmethesnow has been keying on. Getting close enough now that it has caught my interest just a tad.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I admittedly have not been paying much attention to it because its been way out there, but I was just looking at the GEFS and EPS members for the last few runs, and there is a fairly persistent, weak signal for a coastal storm in the 10-14 day range, maybe centered on the Friday-Saturday period after T-day. Even the op GFS the last 2 runs has suggested something developing along the trailing front from a low heading to our NW. 12z even had some snow in eastern NC and VA tidewater. I think this is the period @showmethesnow has been keying on. Getting close enough now that it has caught my interest just a tad.

I don't know if I would use the term 'keying on'. Noticing is probably more apt. :) 

It fits into my thoughts about a possible flip in the N Pac so it does have my interest. That along with a couple other things as well. But the signals are somewhat mixed in that regard so I am sort of hunkering down and am in wait and see mode at this point. 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

I don't know if I would use the term 'keying on'. Noticing is probably more apt. :) 

It fits into my thoughts about a possible flip in the N Pac so it does have my interest. That along with a couple other things as well. But the signals are somewhat mixed in that regard so I am sort of hunkering down and am in wait and see mode at this point. 

Yeah I am sort of in a wait mode as well now. We generally know what is going to transpire with the overall pattern- but relatively small differences in the location and strength of the main features will make a big difference in our sensible weather. We are seeing the variation from run to run on the ops, with the ultimate location/strength of the NA block shifting around, as well as the degree of ridging out west, and the location of the axis of whatever ridge does develop. The "thorn" in the side of this potential good pattern to me is still the tendency for a big trough near the GOA. There is a really fine line as to whether it ends up being a or friend or foe for our region.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I am sort of in a wait mode as well now. We generally know what is going to transpire with the overall pattern- but relatively small differences in the location and strength of the main features will make a big difference in our sensible weather. We are seeing the variation from run to run on the ops, with the ultimate location/strength of the NA block shifting around, as well as the degree of ridging out west, and the location of the axis of whatever ridge does develop. The "thorn" in the side of this potential good pattern to me is still the tendency for a big trough near the GOA. There is a really fine line as to whether it ends up being a or friend or foe for our region.

I'd just as soon not have to wait for that to rotate into a favorable location or have to depend on strong blocking to offset its negative influence. I just want that crap out of there. It's why I keep harping on a possible flip out there. And I'll keep harping on it until listens to me. :D

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

I'd just as soon not have to wait for that to rotate into a favorable location or have to depend on strong blocking to offset its negative influence. I just want that crap out of there. It's why I keep harping on a possible flip out there. And I'll keep harping on it until listens to me. :D

I am totally with you brother. I think we both like the general idea the weeklies are suggesting as we go forward into December- more of a +pna and even the hint of a -epo, with still some decent NA blocking.

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

A little more dig with the vort verbatim but one thing for sure... cold is coming .

That's not too far from being a big deal for those to our north. Timing is a little off with the vort and the surface low. Even if the timing was better we would still need to see quite a bit more dig from the vort ( as you mentioned) for us to see any action besides a stray flurry or two.

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