mattie g Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Loop h5 on the 12z GFS and watch the vortices initially rotate down and then keep trucking along up over GL/into the NA. Towards the end of the run, watch the vortices rotating(further) down, then up into eastern Canada, getting "stuck", and then turning back SW. When you see that, you know there is a legit block. Agreed - it’s pretty much what I was getting at except you explained it much better than I did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Agreed - it’s pretty much what I was getting at except you explained it much better than I did! More importantly, whats on tap for Friday happy hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 This is interesting to see in motion, certainly a lot going on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Weather Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 6 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: I'm baaaaaaaaaaackkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk.... Anyway, just peeked at the 00z EURO, if the LR pattern is right we'd be tracking a winter storm for the 23rd-27th time frame. What would this mean for the Monday night Ravens game on the 27th? What do y'all think the weathers looking like for the game, I know its still pretty far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 32 minutes ago, Mr. Weather said: What would this mean for the Monday night Ravens game on the 27th? What do y'all think the weathers looking like for the game, I know its still pretty far out though. Looks to be chilly. Too far out to say if it will precipitate. I would be surprised if it was anything other rain though if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Mean snowfall for the GEFS is slowly upping totals to the south and east. I may be dreaming this far out, but we've got some good chances for snow during Thanksgiving week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Legitimate The Pacific loading pattern is pretty great too... I'd be worried if it was El Nino, but La Nina it works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 I think this model is really poor! It proves it daily! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I think this model is really poor! It proves it daily! I mean, it can't be wrong. It shows colder than average temperatures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 29 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I think this model is really poor! It proves it daily! Welcome to 10 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 I was just looking over the last few runs of the EPS. There is a trend for deamplification of the longwave pattern towards day 15, which seems to be timed with the PV becoming a bit more consolidated and shifting north some. The MSLP +anomalies towards the pole are weaker during this period, so the AO may be heading towards neutral at the end of the month. There is still a decent looking -NAO though. Overall the pattern looks more zonal and much of the lower 48 would be under weak h5 +heights, and rolling it forward probably some weak ridging in the east as we head into December. Not a torch look, but it would definitely be mild for a time. This is pretty far out of course, and I believe it would be temporary, and mark the beginning of a pattern reshuffle and reloading. Hopefully the result will be a more favorable look out west with a more stable +PNA and maybe -EPO as we head into early/mid December, as has been suggested by the latest weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I was just looking over the last few runs of the EPS. There is a trend for deamplification of the longwave pattern towards day 15, which seems to be timed with the PV becoming a bit more consolidated and shifting north some. The MSLP +anomalies towards the pole are weaker during this period, so the AO may be heading towards neutral at the end of the month. There is still a decent looking -NAO though. Overall the pattern looks more zonal and much of the lower 48 would be under weak h5 +heights, and rolling it forward probably some weak ridging in the east as we head into December. Not a torch look, but it would definitely be mild for a time. This is pretty far out of course, and I believe it would be temporary, and mark the beginning of a pattern reshuffle and reloading. Hopefully the result will be a more favorable look out west with a more stable +PNA and maybe -EPO as we head into early/mid December, as has been suggested by the latest weeklies. Wait.....it's 11/11, and you're suggesting we may not be going directly into deep winter from here? Ughhh, winter's over. Nnnnnnnnext...... j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Wait.....it's 11/11, and you're suggesting we may not be going directly into deep winter from here? Ughhh, winter's over. Nnnnnnnnext...... j/k lol I am sure that is how some will interpret my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol I am sure that is how some will interpret my post. You warmister you. Can't believe you are already canceling winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: You warmister you. Can't believe you are already canceling winter. I have been exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: You warmister you. Can't believe you are already canceling winter. He's been reading too many snowman19 posts. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Wait.....it's 11/11, and you're suggesting we may not be going directly into deep winter from here? Ughhh, winter's over. Nnnnnnnnext...... j/k Btw, did you notice the CFS is back to a torch for December? Of course it now has a more favorable look for January and February lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Btw, did you notice the CFS is back to a torch for December? Of course it now has a more favorable look for January and February lol. I did. Hard to bet against the euro and go with the cfs. But we'll see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: I did. Hard to bet against the euro and go with the cfs. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 36 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I was just looking over the last few runs of the EPS. There is a trend for deamplification of the longwave pattern towards day 15, which seems to be timed with the PV becoming a bit more consolidated and shifting north some. The MSLP +anomalies towards the pole are weaker during this period, so the AO may be heading towards neutral at the end of the month. There is still a decent looking -NAO though. Overall the pattern looks more zonal and much of the lower 48 would be under weak h5 +heights, and rolling it forward probably some weak ridging in the east as we head into December. Not a torch look, but it would definitely be mild for a time. This is pretty far out of course, and I believe it would be temporary, and mark the beginning of a pattern reshuffle and reloading. Hopefully the result will be a more favorable look out west with a more stable +PNA and maybe -EPO as we head into early/mid December, as has been suggested by the latest weeklies. Been a clear trend to weaken and shift the blocking northeastward towards Greenland. Needless to say this is also shifting the best potential NEward as well towards New England. Not to say we can't score something but the odds have decreased quit a bit from a couple of days ago when we were seeing strong blocking overhead. Around roughly day 12 I do think we may be seeing an increasing signal for a coastal for whatever that is worth. After looking over things this morning I debated on whether I wanted to comment on the longer range and decided to hold off for a few more runs to see if they may conform my thoughts. But I will say this, from what I am seeing whether real or imagined, I am not really sure we can trust what the models are throwing out even in the 10/11 day range let alone 15/16 day. I think there is a somewhat decent possibility that we see some major changes over the coming days on key features during this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: He's been reading too many snowman19 posts. lol Speaking of snowman19, wheres he been? I miss the back and forth him and PSU used to have. Always made for an entertaining exchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Been a clear trend to weaken and shift the blocking northeastward towards Greenland. Needless to say this is also shifting the best potential NEward as well towards New England. Not to say we can't score something but the odds have decreased quit a bit from a couple of days ago when we were seeing strong blocking overhead. Around roughly day 12 I do think we may be seeing an increasing signal for a coastal for whatever that is worth. After looking over things this morning I debated on whether I wanted to comment on the longer range and decided to hold off for a few more runs to see if they may conform my thoughts. But I will say this, from what I am seeing whether real or imagined, I am not really sure we can trust what the models are throwing out even in the 10/11 day range let alone 15/16 day. I think there is a somewhat decent possibility that we see some major changes over the coming days on key features during this time period. Agreed. I decided to make the post because it has been showing up for multiple runs now on the EPS. I literally started making a similar post yesterday, and then decided not to. I know there are some here who get "defensive" about suggestions that the good look wont last forever, but most of us here know the deal lol. I am still optimistic and see it as a natural progression/relaxation, and hopefully it leads to something like what the weeklies are depicting towards mid December. All subject to change of course lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Speaking of snowman19, wheres he been? I miss the back and forth him and PSU used to have. Always made for an entertaining exchange. Someone said he was 5 posted, so that would throw a monkey wrench into his m.o. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Someone said he was 5 posted, so that would throw a monkey wrench into his m.o. Not to mention things have looked much brighter the last week or two. I am sure when things look to go in the crapper he will be here again in all his glory not to mention the other suspects that revel in spreading misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Speaking of snowman19, wheres he been? I miss the back and forth him and PSU used to have. Always made for an entertaining exchange. I was also wondering what was up with btrwx's dramatic disappearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 52 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Speaking of snowman19, wheres he been? I miss the back and forth him and PSU used to have. Always made for an entertaining exchange. He is waiting for a torch to show up on the guidance. He will return to remind us how warm it's going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 49 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I was also wondering what was up with btrwx's dramatic disappearance. Same here. These boards can be such a Soap opera at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea....models have been showing energy in that day 11-12 timeframe trying to cut south towards us in the wake of the day 7-8 trough once the block gets established. I'm hoping that continues because op runs would get real interesting I'm sure as we get closer. Its not what I would call a strong signal on the ensembles but it has strengthened somewhat over the last day or two (more so on the GEFS then the other models). Haven't checked but I wonder if some of the ensemble members are seeing a vort rotating out of SE Canada into the 50/50 region while others aren't which would possibly give us this look or then again maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: I was also wondering what was up with btrwx's dramatic disappearance. Some personal issues I think. He asked to have his account removed, which is a bit odd. Hope he is alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looking at the 6z Mrefs there's a solid signal for a New England or se Canada area low at day 8. If that holds in that same general area or 50/50 then energy behind has to be forced south assuming there's sufficient blocking as well ..correct ? On another note ..extrapping beyond day 10 Euro. ( i know) looks to bring a huge plunge of cold air south into the north central US. That is actually a somewhat hard question to answer. First off it looks to be so active up top with the pv extension and the energy rotating around it chances are good that this look does not hold into the day 12 or so period. Second the convoluted nature of the pv and energy rotating around it does open up some possibilities that we would not normally expect to see in certain setups. But generally speaking, typically if we do see a low in NE or SE Canada any energy driving in from the northwest would most likely be forced farther south but the problem would then be it is riding down the back side of the NE/SE Canada low induced trough and would not have a chance to amplify until well out to sea when it begins riding up the front of the trough. So you are probably looking at a quick hitter (clipper). Now shift that same low into the general 50/50 region and we see a completely different setup. Instead of a trough associated with the low we are now seeing a trough in the east that is completely independent of the low and yet is being influenced by it. The 50/50 will normally have ridging building behind it which in turn will normally cause the east coast trough to sharpen and dig as the flow gets backed up. This would in turn force any energy southward but the sharpening of the trough now draws the front side of the trough, where amplification can occur, westward to hopefully a better position for the east coast. Now all that being said, with the chaotic nature we are seeing up in SE Canada through this period it is hard to rule anything out. I can see several scenarios where a low in the general NE/SE Canada position could actually work especially if we see its positioning more southwestward towards the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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