November Long Range Disco

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Maybe we'll get lucky with a 6" - 10" paste bomb for Christmas Eve.  Something that everyone wins at and covered everything complete.  Christmas snow is an automatic win in my book.

You've come around nicely.....

 

I can remember you once sayinig, anything less than 24" was a waste.....

 

Just bustin on ya.   A little Currier and I'ves kinda feel to Christmas would be just swell.

Nut

[CAPE]

Just had a chance to look at the 12z EPS. I like the general idea of the deep trough around the GOA weakening some, and the +heights in the central US retrograde a bit further west days 10-15. Looks like it is trending towards a +PNA, as was suggested by the latest weeklies. Meanwhile the stout west based -NAO holds strong.

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, poolz1 said:

@Bob Chill  Thanks!  Interesting the timing of the AO crash in 2011...almost exactly with whats being modeled.  Is that graph something you pulled from online?   (the 2011 AO Graph) 

 

I make them. It's not complicated to do. You can pull the AO/NAO/PNA historical daily data files in ascii format from NCEP and then import into Excel. From there you can make all kinds of pretty charts and graphs and make it look like you are smarter than you are. LOL

[showmethesnow]

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just had a chance to look at the 12z EPS. I like the general idea of the deep trough around the GOA weakening some, and the +heights in the central US retrograde a bit further west days 10-15. Looks like it is trending towards a +PNA, as was suggested by the latest weeklies. Meanwhile the stout west based -NAO holds strong.

The GEFS and the GEM might be hinting at a switch in the N Pacific in the longer range between the Aleutian ridging and the Alaskan/GOA trough. The EPS still looks to hold on to it. Lets see what the models have in a couple of days as to whether it might be real or I am just imagining it.

[mitchnick]

Weeklies pet CoastalWx. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50229-fall-2017-model-mehham/?do=findComment&comment=4661579

 

[poolz1]

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I make them. It's not complicated to do. You can pull the AO/NAO/PNA historical daily data files in ascii format from NCEP and then import into Excel. From there you can make all kinds of pretty charts and graphs and make it look like you are smarter than you are. LOL

I would appreciate it if you would not speak Chinese when responding to my posts! lol  

I am not smarter than I are!

In seriousness, I am versed in Excel and could probably figure it out..It is a nice visual that certainly speaks louder than just numbers....Nice work man...

 

[CAPE]

51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The GEFS and the GEM might be hinting at a switch in the N Pacific in the longer range between the Aleutian ridging and the Alaskan/GOA trough. The EPS still looks to hold on to it. Lets see what the models have in a couple of days as to whether it might be real or I am just imagining it.

Yeah I might be imagining things too, but the latest EPS seemed to move in that direction some. The weeklies definitely did- but a bit further down the road, when it would be more useful anyway if it actually materialized.

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Weeklies pet CoastalWx. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50229-fall-2017-model-mehham/?do=findComment&comment=4661579

 

The -NAO does weaken some- more neutral looking towards xmas, but that is offset by a much better look out west. Looks to be a +PNA, and the AK ridge goes more neutral(N-S), the GOA trough is basically dampened to nothing, and it has the look of a -EPO towards the second half of December. I would take that look and run.

[leo2000]

5 hours ago, poolz1 said:

By 11/20 12z GEFS mean drops the AO to -5 and NAO to -3.   It does appear to a stable feature at least through D16 and beyond.  I didnt know about the 45-60 day cycle...interesting.   

Hehe but the positive AO has gone like almost a whole year as a stable feature lol before.

[poolz1]

11 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Hehe but the positive AO has gone like almost a whole year as a stable feature lol before.

Not sure im picking up exactly what you're throwing down but....yes the +AO has been a relatively stable feature for several years during the winter.  Right or wrong, it doesnt change what the 12z gefs spit out.

[WhiteoutWX]

00z GFS a masterclass in high-lat blocking

[showmethesnow]

The overnight run of the GEFs doesn't look as enticing as earlier runs. Has weakened and shifted north somewhat on the blocking over top earlier on so we are seeing a shifting of the better potential to the north and east towards NY/NE in the earlier part of our window (roughly day 9-12). The look is suggestive of possible clipper/lake effect flurries/squalls for our region, temps cooperating of course. Post day 12-16 sees it dropping the better potential back into our general region and the placement is probably a little better then what we were seeing previously and actually is a good look. EPS for the most part keeps the better potential to our north and east throughout the long range. Gem is in pretty good agreement with the GEFS.

Just one run of the models, at range no less, so I probably wouldn't take it to heart. We are probably going to see fluctuations with the exact placement and strength of the blocking over the coming days which will be the driving force behind the exact placement of the best potential.

Looks as if there may be a wild card thrown in as well in the longer range especially after day 16. Mentioned a week or two ago I thought we would see a flip between the Aleutian ridging and the Alaskan/GOA trough. Models have been hinting on and off for the last couple of days that this may be the case. But the last couple of runs of the GEFS and GEM actually start the process in the longer range. EPS isn't quite there yet but it also is showing some signs as well. If indeed this occurs it would be an somewhat exciting look if we can keep the blocking over top as well. I will say that quite often times that the models try to rush these changes so it would not be surprising to see this delayed somewhat.

Note: The following is just for fun so take it with a grain of salt.

Purely speculation on my part on what would happen if we see a flip but would not be surprised if we see a brief surge (3-4 day) of warm Pacific air overrun the CONUS as well as a temporary breakdown of the -NAO through the process. During the NAO breakdown there would be a good chance we also see a strong east coast storm/noreaster as well. The brief surge of warm air would then be driven out of the CONUS (except for the west, especially the southwest) as we see a surge of well below normal temps dive down into the west/central US progressing towards the east coast. As the warm air is being driven out on the east coast we would then probably see a corresponding re-surging of the -NAO. After that it would hopefully be game on as we move into December.

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Sign me up for the 6z Gfs ...blocking barely budges and starting at day 8 we get a strong trough every 3 days bringing cold and the chance of any one of them cutting under us. New England is favored of course to get really crushed the next 2 weeks but we  could  easily get in the mix for something and first  flakes almost a lock I think now .

Should be some interesting op runs in the coming days with the amount of blocking showing up top.

[BristowWx]

7 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said:

00z GFS a masterclass in high-lat blocking

I don't think that could be said any better.  Just amazing potential pattern.  Gonna need a bigger turkey and more firewood.

[poolz1]

@showmethesnow  I remember a great post from you a few weeks +/- ago where you were talking about the pac jet and the stj.  It's one (of many) part of my weenie weather knowledge that I lack....I tried looking back through the threads but cant find it.  Could you refresh my memory as to what level you were looking at?  250mb?

I remember seeing similar posts last year and seeing the uninterrupted pac jet screaming across the Pacific.... 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

@showmethesnow  I remember a great post from you a few weeks +/- ago where you were talking about the pac jet and the stj.  It's one (of many) part of my weenie weather knowledge that I lack....I tried looking back through the threads but cant find it.  Could you refresh my memory as to what level you were looking at?  250mb?

I remember seeing similar posts last year and seeing the uninterrupted pac jet screaming across the Pacific.... 

300 mb for the polar/Pac jet and the 200 mb for a better representation of the sub tropical. Quite often you see 250mb used which works. 

[midatlanticweather]

@showmethesnow that long-range speculation is what I hope for honestly! I am not hooked on anything really too exciting in the next 10 days. As @Bobchill has been saying (and I am embellishing), all that we are seeing is setting the table, and so far we are seeing the nicer tablecloth and not the paper one, the cloth napkins and not paper, and the China is being considered. This all looks good to have the complete table set and then the real feast served in December! I like the longer build-up of snow and cold being established and not transient to the north. Then a big storm can tap the cold and we get snow. We are all hungry, but I want a full course meal and not a snack before bedtime!

=) 

@BobChill does it better! 

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

@showmethesnow that long-range speculation is what I hope for honestly! I am not hooked on anything really too exciting in the next 10 days. As @Bobchill has been saying (and I am embellishing), all that we are seeing is setting the table, and so far we are seeing the nicer tablecloth and not the paper one, the cloth napkins and not paper, and the China is being considered. This all looks good to have the complete table set and then the real feast served in December! I like the longer build-up of snow and cold being established and not transient to the north. Then a big storm can tap the cold and we get snow. We are all hungry, but I want a full course meal and not a snack before bedtime!

=) 

@BobChill does it better! 

I have played around in my mind how the pattern could evolve if in fact we do see a flip in the N Pacific and I somewhat favor that evolution (or a semblance of that) over a couple of others I see possible as well. That being said a lot of my thoughts revolve around the longer range modeling and we know how notoriously bad they can be at times. So take my speculation for what it's worth, which probably isn't much.

Also on a side note. People keep dismissing the potential on the upcoming 9-16+ day period because of it coming early in the season (temps) and are looking at it as more of a setup going into December. And yet others look at it as just a waste of a good pattern. I myself think there is actually some good potential during this time frame due to the highly anomalous blocking we are seeing. And yes, even into the cities. I am a firm believer in snow begets snow so I want to see this pattern produce (and I think it will) to possibly be a harbinger for the 1'st half of winter.

[poolz1]

53 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

300 mb for the polar/Pac jet and the 200 mb for a better representation of the sub tropical. Quite often you see 250mb used which works. 

Thank you..much appreciated 

[Bob Chill]

41 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Also on a side note. People keep dismissing the potential on the upcoming 9-16+ day period because of it coming early in the season (temps) and are looking at it as more of a setup going into December. And yet others look at it as just a waste of a good pattern. I myself think there is actually some good potential during this time frame due to the highly anomalous blocking we are seeing. And yes, even into the cities. I am a firm believer in snow begets snow so I want to see this pattern produce (and I think it will) to possibly be a harbinger for the 1'st half of winter.

I'm not dismissing it. Not at all. The problem with my yard is I don't benefit from latitude or elevation so historically, it's really hard to get accum snow in Nov. That applies to most of us honestly. IF something presents itself inside of 5 days I would be pretty interested. Until then my expectations are that any long range threat is at great risk of verifying less amplified and more north than long range progs. Climo battle is real in Nov. Wavelengths are improving but one of the only ways to get any type of real event in the cities is a strong vort with a clean pass to the south. It can't be overhead and it can't be a transfer situation. Even a clean vort pass will need fresh and not stale cold so the timing window is short. 

The pattern doesn't support a miller A at all so anything "big" would be some sort of transfer situation. In November even NYC is on the climo border for a transfer so down this way is much more challenging than areas far north. A clipper on the heels of a strong cold front is probably the most likely scenario for anything meaningful. Which is much more of a short lead scenario than a long lead because clippers are very hard for models to even pick up on in the med range. 

If I lived N of 40 or even losetoa6/psu/mappyville I would take the upcoming pattern a little more serious for snow chances. It's hard to defeat Nov climo in my yard though. All 8 cylinders need to hit and probably an aftermarket turbo or supercharger needs to be installed. 

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

I have played around in my mind how the pattern could evolve if in fact we do see a flip in the N Pacific and I somewhat favor that evolution (or a semblance of that) over a couple of others I see possible as well. That being said a lot of my thoughts revolve around the longer range modeling and we know how notoriously bad they can be at times. So take my speculation for what it's worth, which probably isn't much.

Also on a side note. People keep dismissing the potential on the upcoming 9-16+ day period because of it coming early in the season (temps) and are looking at it as more of a setup going into December. And yet others look at it as just a waste of a good pattern. I myself think there is actually some good potential during this time frame due to the highly anomalous blocking we are seeing. And yes, even into the cities. I am a firm believer in snow begets snow so I want to see this pattern produce (and I think it will) to possibly be a harbinger for the 1'st half of winter.

November could be our new March. #2017ing ;-)

[poolz1]

 

[dallen7908]

Why all the concern about early-season boundary layer temperatures? As long as the winds are from the northeast wouldn't the low sun angle help? Perhaps early-season storms are less common because the temperature contrast between the north and south is usually less early in the season due to lack of a snow base at northern locations? 

 

[Bob Chill]

41 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Why all the concern about early-season boundary layer temperatures? As long as the winds are from the northeast wouldn't the low sun angle help? Perhaps early-season storms are less common because the temperature contrast between the north and south is usually less early in the season due to lack of a snow base at northern locations? 

 

It's really just basic climo. Average highs are still in the mid to upper 50's right now, the ocean is warm, and you have to go all the way to Canada for extensive snowcover. Even on Nov 30th the average high is 50. We need a -20 to -25 air masses to have sub freezing temps during the day through the end of the month.  That's a really big anomaly and hard to attain. Obviously at night it's easier but it still takes a big departure.

March is easier even with more sun angle because the general north american background state and source regions are much more conducive for cold temps in general. 

[Heisy]

I'm baaaaaaaaaaackkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk....

Anyway, just peeked at the 00z EURO, if the LR pattern is right we'd be tracking a winter storm for the 23rd-27th time frame. 

[mattie g]

12z GFS 500 looks fantastic from about Day 7 through the end of the run, when it looks crazy good (op run at range, I know).

I’m thinking the CANSIPS is going to bust on November.

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, mattie g said:

12z GFS 500 looks fantastic from about Day 7 through the end of the run, when it looks crazy good (op run at range, I know).

I’m thinking the CANSIPS is going to bust on November.

Loop h5 on the 12z GFS and watch the vortices initially rotate down and then keep trucking along up over GL/into the NA. Towards the end of the run, watch the vortices rotating(further) down, then up into eastern Canada, getting "stuck", and then turning back SW. When you see that, you know there is a legit block.

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Loop h5 on the 12z GFS and watch the vortices initially rotate down and then keep trucking along up over GL/into the NA. Towards the end of the run, watch the vortices rotating(further) down, then up into eastern Canada, getting "stuck", and then turning back SW. When you see that, you know there is a legit block.

And past day 6, 90%, more or less, of Canada remains below freezing in every panel to the end of the run. With the sun angle getting lower and lower, Canada should remain completely snow covered. All of that will, of course, be feeding the cold. Sweet!

[showmethesnow]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not dismissing it. Not at all. The problem with my yard is I don't benefit from latitude or elevation so historically, it's really hard to get accum snow in Nov. That applies to most of us honestly. IF something presents itself inside of 5 days I would be pretty interested. Until then my expectations are that any long range threat is at great risk of verifying less amplified and more north than long range progs. Climo battle is real in Nov. Wavelengths are improving but one of the only ways to get any type of real event in the cities is a strong vort with a clean pass to the south. It can't be overhead and it can't be a transfer situation. Even a clean vort pass will need fresh and not stale cold so the timing window is short. 

The pattern doesn't support a miller A at all so anything "big" would be some sort of transfer situation. In November even NYC is on the climo border for a transfer so down this way is much more challenging than areas far north. A clipper on the heels of a strong cold front is probably the most likely scenario for anything meaningful. Which is much more of a short lead scenario than a long lead because clippers are very hard for models to even pick up on in the med range. 

If I lived N of 40 or even losetoa6/psu/mappyville I would take the upcoming pattern a little more serious for snow chances. It's hard to defeat Nov climo in my yard though. All 8 cylinders need to hit and probably an aftermarket turbo or supercharger needs to be installed. 

I hope you don't think I was singling you out on dismissing November potential. My comment was in regards to the board in general. 

I can't argue with anything you stated about the hardships that need to be overcome to get snow in November. They are very real and not imagined. I just think, IF.... the models are correct on the anomalous blocking, that it could very well trump general climo in this case.

 

[showmethesnow]

5 hours ago, poolz1 said:

 

Most of October saw this as well. Think that is why we are seeing the blocking showing up now in the upper latitudes because of all the heat that has been pumped into the polar regions the last month or so.