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November Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The only "warmup" seen from the GEFS is seasonable temperatures. Incredible!

GEFS is a smoothed mean so we'll prob get some AN days in the mix. But unlike what we've seen for what seems like YEARS now...lol...it will be a warmish day or 2 tops followed by 3-4 chilly ones. Seeing the BN smoothed mean is indicative of some significant cold shots for sure though. 

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS is a smoothed mean so we'll prob get some AN days in the mix. But unlike what we've seen for what seems like YEARS now...lol...it will be a warmish day or 2 tops followed by 3-4 chilly ones. Seeing the BN smoothed mean is indicative of some significant cold shots for sure though. 

I'm comfortable with where things are now. It's not about results yet. We're still in preseason. But it's nice to have some chill in the air as we approach holiday season instead of shorts and t shirt weather. Early season cold is no guarantee of anything but after the last few years waiting until kingdom come for winter to start I'll take it. I feel like I'm at the point like the line in "Groundhog Day" where Murray says "that's different" and MacDowwel says "good different" to which he replies "anything different is good"

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57 minutes ago, Amped said:

Early season storms rarely go our way, usually close but no cigar like this one.

 

1995111506.gif

 

That was the one, I think, that turned to snow with thunder and lightning.  Got around an inch. I considered that a victory then and woild consider it likewise if it happened again. Should have used a different example,  if I'm right on the storm,  because there are plenty of legit fails around here.

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Hard not to get just a touch excited about the extended (day 10-16, maybe beyond?) on the GEFS. The look continues to improve for that period and it is moving forward in time. We are also now seeing indications that we will have a piece of the PV rotating around SE Canada and the lakes over to NE. EPS also took a somewhat significant step overnight towards the GEFS solution as well. Best part about the setup is that it has a higher probability of verifying then what you would normally expect at range because of its simplicity. Normally we are dealing with multiple features that if one doesn't verify then the whole thing goes in the crapper. But in this case we are for the most part dealing with one feature (Very strong blocking over top) where if that verifies then more then likely everything else falls into place. Weaker blocking or none then we are SOL. If the blocking does verify the biggest question at that point would probably be where the trough/pv set up in the east and how far they dig. Though you can't rule out the southern stream (subtropical jet has been somewhat active) more then likely any potential we have will be NS driven so the trough/pv placement and depth will be the determining factor on whether we are dealing with potential clipper type snows, Miller B type solutions or somewhere in between.

We are still talking the extended and we all know how that goes, but if we still see these solutions popping up come Monday I think it might be time to gas up the bus.

 

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Hard not to get just a touch excited about the extended (day 10-16, maybe beyond?) on the GEFS. The look continues to improve for that period and it is moving forward in time. We are also now seeing indications that we will have a piece of the PV rotating around SE Canada and the lakes over to NE. EPS also took a somewhat significant step overnight towards the GEFS solution as well. Best part about the setup is that it has a higher probability of verifying then what you would normally expect at range because of its simplicity. Normally we are dealing with multiple features that if one doesn't verify then the whole thing goes in the crapper. But in this case we are for the most part dealing with one feature (Very strong blocking over top) where if that verifies then more then likely everything else falls into place. Weaker blocking or none then we are SOL. If the blocking does verify the biggest question at that point would probably be where the trough/pv set up in the east and how far they dig. Though you can't rule out the southern stream (subtropical jet has been somewhat active) more then likely any potential we have will be NS driven so the trough/pv placement and depth will be the determining factor on whether we are dealing with potential clipper type snows, Miller B type solutions or somewhere in between.

We are still talking the extended and we all know how that goes, but if we still see these solutions popping up come Monday I think it might be time to gas up the bus.

 

The GEFS has been advertising a cold wave through Thanksgiving week since it was able to model out through Thanksgiving week. It's looking better and better, and judging from our current and incoming pattern changes, we should see at least some decent cold before November is over

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29 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The GEFS has been advertising a cold wave through Thanksgiving week since it was able to model out through Thanksgiving week. It's looking better and better, and judging from our current and incoming pattern changes, we should see at least some decent cold before November is over

its just a really nice look going into the holiday.  GEFS still rock solid with that trough over the east.  I don't know if there will be snow...but have cup of cheer.

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

its just a really nice look going into the holiday.  GEFS still rock solid with that trough over the east.  I don't know if there will be snow...but have cup of cheer.

I have seen plenty of good patterns go to waste over the years and it would not be a surprise if this one did as well. That being said, if this comes close to verifying and given the length of the window it is presenting I would be somewhat shocked if we didn't see my predicted mid to late November snow.

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20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I have seen plenty of good patterns go to waste over the years and it would not be a surprise if this one did as well. That being said, if this comes close to verifying and given the length of the window it is presenting I would be somewhat shocked if we didn't see my predicted mid to late November snow.

I agree.  Of course your location is more likely but we can all dream for those first flakes.  I would be happy with cold enough weather to turn on fireplace and wear a sweater comfortably.   

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

I have seen plenty of good patterns go to waste over the years and it would not be a surprise if this one did as well. That being said, if this comes close to verifying and given the length of the window it is presenting I would be somewhat shocked if we didn't see my predicted mid to late November snow.

I mean, It's better than no good pattern in the first place. It also isn't like we're seeing record cold in October or even snow like 2011's case.

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

I have seen plenty of good patterns go to waste over the years and it would not be a surprise if this one did as well. That being said, if this comes close to verifying and given the length of the window it is presenting I would be somewhat shocked if we didn't see my predicted mid to late November snow.

Even if the pattern is "wasted", as others have alluded to, we have sensible weather to track, and not anomalous warmth caused by all of the toaster baths like last year.

The progression is quite a welcome sight, and it is quite early in the game for substantial scores...although those north and west of us are likely to see a couple windows for some holiday cheer.  

You've been quite the read lately....keep up the good work.  Enjoy the insight.

 

Nut

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Even if the pattern is "wasted", as others have alluded to, we have sensible weather to track, and not anomalous warmth caused by all of the toaster baths like last year.

The progression is quite a welcome sight, and it is quite early in the game for substantial scores...although those north and west of us are likely to see a couple windows for some holiday cheer.  

You've been quite the read lately....keep up the good work.  Enjoy the insight.

 

Nut

It's all about perspective. I mean sure, I'd like to see some snow fall in Nov but that's not what this is all about for me. November (especially the second half) can tip the hand of what is in store for early met winter. If the AO plunge proves to have some staying power for the second half of Nov then the odds greatly increase for a -AO December as well. The typical cycle of an anomalous -AO (or +AO) is 45-60 days. THAT is pretty much my entire focus right now....and it looks pretty good too....heh

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1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Well...that was an interesting 12z op run of the gfs...need to pick up some popcorn for happy hour run...

 

GFS.thumb.png.97df8da833650cfff467842f950e8be1.png

 

screen saver worthy.  not sure you can have a much better look than that.  Maybe improvements in AK but not going to worry about that. 

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's all about perspective. I mean sure, I'd like to see some snow fall in Nov but that's not what this is all about for me. November (especially the second half) can tip the hand of what is in store for early met winter. If the AO plunge proves to have some staying power for the second half of Nov then the odds greatly increase for a -AO December as well. The typical cycle of an anomalous -AO (or +AO) is 45-60 days. THAT is pretty much my entire focus right now....and it looks pretty good too....heh

By 11/20 12z GEFS mean drops the AO to -5 and NAO to -3.   It does appear to a stable feature at least through D16 and beyond.  I didnt know about the 45-60 day cycle...interesting.   

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Man, if we can get a repeat of this pattern any time in Dec, Jan, or Feb, and it's play time for all. But because it's in Nov, boundary temps are just too warm outside of the mountains. I say "take your time atmosphere and get it right" for Dec-Feb. I hope it listens to me.  :wacko:

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Man, if we can get a repeat of this pattern any time in Dec, Jan, or Feb, and it's play time for all. But because it's in Nov, boundary temps are just too warm outside of the mountains. I say "take your time atmosphere and get it right" for Dec-Feb. I hope it listens to me.  :wacko:

Maybe we'll get lucky with a 6" - 10" paste bomb for Christmas Eve.  Something that everyone wins at and covered everything complete.  Christmas snow is an automatic win in my book.

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12 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

By 11/20 12z GEFS mean drops the AO to -5 and NAO to -3.   It does appear to a stable feature at least through D16 and beyond.  I didnt know about the 45-60 day cycle...interesting.   

I have a whole bunch of individual years graphed out showing the 45-60 day cylce but this data spread tells the same story. These are the top -AO Decembers over the last 60 years or so. You can see the connection with Jan big time. There's approx an 80% chance of a Neg AO Jan when Dec mean AO comes in at -1.3 or lower. Bleeds into Feb as well. Dec can tell a lot about the personality of blocking for the whole season. I also have a similar data spread with +AO Decembers and it tells the same story but in reverse. 

 

dRiShRn.jpg

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10-11 is a good comparison showing a strong +AO in the first half of Nov that flipped mid month. If current LR guidance is correct, it wouldn't surprise me to see a similar blocking episode evolve this year. It's not a good analog because 10-11 was a fairly stout Nina but focusing solely on the high latitudes, it could be a good analog with blocking. We'll know a lot more in a month but the early signs are encouraging at least. 

 

ddT2v1K.jpg

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It's all about perspective. I mean sure, I'd like to see some snow fall in Nov but that's not what this is all about for me. November (especially the second half) can tip the hand of what is in store for early met winter. If the AO plunge proves to have some staying power for the second half of Nov then the odds greatly increase for a -AO December as well. The typical cycle of an anomalous -AO (or +AO) is 45-60 days. THAT is pretty much my entire focus right now....and it looks pretty good too....heh

Yeah yeah.  It is comforting to see multiple indicies aligning favorably early on. Its also hard not to really push all the chips in for some front loaded loving, as its been a scarcity for far too long.  Folks need to just keep it real and be happy to see what were all seeing.  I looked at 0z's ensembles and was encouraged at the continuity as they went out towards d10. 

Steady as she goes.....

Nut

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