Cobalt Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: BN temps almost wall to wall. The only "warmup" seen from the GEFS is seasonable temperatures. Incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2017 Author Share Posted November 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: The only "warmup" seen from the GEFS is seasonable temperatures. Incredible! GEFS is a smoothed mean so we'll prob get some AN days in the mix. But unlike what we've seen for what seems like YEARS now...lol...it will be a warmish day or 2 tops followed by 3-4 chilly ones. Seeing the BN smoothed mean is indicative of some significant cold shots for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS is a smoothed mean so we'll prob get some AN days in the mix. But unlike what we've seen for what seems like YEARS now...lol...it will be a warmish day or 2 tops followed by 3-4 chilly ones. Seeing the BN smoothed mean is indicative of some significant cold shots for sure though. I'm comfortable with where things are now. It's not about results yet. We're still in preseason. But it's nice to have some chill in the air as we approach holiday season instead of shorts and t shirt weather. Early season cold is no guarantee of anything but after the last few years waiting until kingdom come for winter to start I'll take it. I feel like I'm at the point like the line in "Groundhog Day" where Murray says "that's different" and MacDowwel says "good different" to which he replies "anything different is good" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Early season storms rarely go our way, usually close but no cigar like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 33 minutes ago, Amped said: MOST storms rarely go our way, usually close but no cigar like this one. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 57 minutes ago, Amped said: Early season storms rarely go our way, usually close but no cigar like this one. That was the one, I think, that turned to snow with thunder and lightning. Got around an inch. I considered that a victory then and woild consider it likewise if it happened again. Should have used a different example, if I'm right on the storm, because there are plenty of legit fails around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Amped said: Early season storms rarely go our way, usually close but no cigar like this one. On second review, everyone should look at 500mb on that map and consider what that winter turned into even with a trough ovet western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Amped said: Early season storms rarely go our way, usually close but no cigar like this one. 6" here from that one. The first snow of that incredible winter. The Grand Daddy of winters out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Hard not to get just a touch excited about the extended (day 10-16, maybe beyond?) on the GEFS. The look continues to improve for that period and it is moving forward in time. We are also now seeing indications that we will have a piece of the PV rotating around SE Canada and the lakes over to NE. EPS also took a somewhat significant step overnight towards the GEFS solution as well. Best part about the setup is that it has a higher probability of verifying then what you would normally expect at range because of its simplicity. Normally we are dealing with multiple features that if one doesn't verify then the whole thing goes in the crapper. But in this case we are for the most part dealing with one feature (Very strong blocking over top) where if that verifies then more then likely everything else falls into place. Weaker blocking or none then we are SOL. If the blocking does verify the biggest question at that point would probably be where the trough/pv set up in the east and how far they dig. Though you can't rule out the southern stream (subtropical jet has been somewhat active) more then likely any potential we have will be NS driven so the trough/pv placement and depth will be the determining factor on whether we are dealing with potential clipper type snows, Miller B type solutions or somewhere in between. We are still talking the extended and we all know how that goes, but if we still see these solutions popping up come Monday I think it might be time to gas up the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Hard not to get just a touch excited about the extended (day 10-16, maybe beyond?) on the GEFS. The look continues to improve for that period and it is moving forward in time. We are also now seeing indications that we will have a piece of the PV rotating around SE Canada and the lakes over to NE. EPS also took a somewhat significant step overnight towards the GEFS solution as well. Best part about the setup is that it has a higher probability of verifying then what you would normally expect at range because of its simplicity. Normally we are dealing with multiple features that if one doesn't verify then the whole thing goes in the crapper. But in this case we are for the most part dealing with one feature (Very strong blocking over top) where if that verifies then more then likely everything else falls into place. Weaker blocking or none then we are SOL. If the blocking does verify the biggest question at that point would probably be where the trough/pv set up in the east and how far they dig. Though you can't rule out the southern stream (subtropical jet has been somewhat active) more then likely any potential we have will be NS driven so the trough/pv placement and depth will be the determining factor on whether we are dealing with potential clipper type snows, Miller B type solutions or somewhere in between. We are still talking the extended and we all know how that goes, but if we still see these solutions popping up come Monday I think it might be time to gas up the bus. The GEFS has been advertising a cold wave through Thanksgiving week since it was able to model out through Thanksgiving week. It's looking better and better, and judging from our current and incoming pattern changes, we should see at least some decent cold before November is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 29 minutes ago, Cobalt said: The GEFS has been advertising a cold wave through Thanksgiving week since it was able to model out through Thanksgiving week. It's looking better and better, and judging from our current and incoming pattern changes, we should see at least some decent cold before November is over its just a really nice look going into the holiday. GEFS still rock solid with that trough over the east. I don't know if there will be snow...but have cup of cheer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: its just a really nice look going into the holiday. GEFS still rock solid with that trough over the east. I don't know if there will be snow...but have cup of cheer. I have seen plenty of good patterns go to waste over the years and it would not be a surprise if this one did as well. That being said, if this comes close to verifying and given the length of the window it is presenting I would be somewhat shocked if we didn't see my predicted mid to late November snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I have seen plenty of good patterns go to waste over the years and it would not be a surprise if this one did as well. That being said, if this comes close to verifying and given the length of the window it is presenting I would be somewhat shocked if we didn't see my predicted mid to late November snow. I agree. Of course your location is more likely but we can all dream for those first flakes. I would be happy with cold enough weather to turn on fireplace and wear a sweater comfortably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: I have seen plenty of good patterns go to waste over the years and it would not be a surprise if this one did as well. That being said, if this comes close to verifying and given the length of the window it is presenting I would be somewhat shocked if we didn't see my predicted mid to late November snow. I mean, It's better than no good pattern in the first place. It also isn't like we're seeing record cold in October or even snow like 2011's case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: I have seen plenty of good patterns go to waste over the years and it would not be a surprise if this one did as well. That being said, if this comes close to verifying and given the length of the window it is presenting I would be somewhat shocked if we didn't see my predicted mid to late November snow. Even if the pattern is "wasted", as others have alluded to, we have sensible weather to track, and not anomalous warmth caused by all of the toaster baths like last year. The progression is quite a welcome sight, and it is quite early in the game for substantial scores...although those north and west of us are likely to see a couple windows for some holiday cheer. You've been quite the read lately....keep up the good work. Enjoy the insight. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Well...that was an interesting 12z op run of the gfs...need to pick up some popcorn for happy hour run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 GFS first flakes within 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 GFS ate some bad chili this morning. Day 9+ = LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS ate some bad chili this morning. Day 9+ = LOL That's not blocking, that's blockages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2017 Author Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Even if the pattern is "wasted", as others have alluded to, we have sensible weather to track, and not anomalous warmth caused by all of the toaster baths like last year. The progression is quite a welcome sight, and it is quite early in the game for substantial scores...although those north and west of us are likely to see a couple windows for some holiday cheer. You've been quite the read lately....keep up the good work. Enjoy the insight. Nut It's all about perspective. I mean sure, I'd like to see some snow fall in Nov but that's not what this is all about for me. November (especially the second half) can tip the hand of what is in store for early met winter. If the AO plunge proves to have some staying power for the second half of Nov then the odds greatly increase for a -AO December as well. The typical cycle of an anomalous -AO (or +AO) is 45-60 days. THAT is pretty much my entire focus right now....and it looks pretty good too....heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: Well...that was an interesting 12z op run of the gfs...need to pick up some popcorn for happy hour run... screen saver worthy. not sure you can have a much better look than that. Maybe improvements in AK but not going to worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 WPC is exploring 8-10 day forecasts and has a survey out if anyone's interested: http://www.probabilisticweatherforecast.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's all about perspective. I mean sure, I'd like to see some snow fall in Nov but that's not what this is all about for me. November (especially the second half) can tip the hand of what is in store for early met winter. If the AO plunge proves to have some staying power for the second half of Nov then the odds greatly increase for a -AO December as well. The typical cycle of an anomalous -AO (or +AO) is 45-60 days. THAT is pretty much my entire focus right now....and it looks pretty good too....heh By 11/20 12z GEFS mean drops the AO to -5 and NAO to -3. It does appear to a stable feature at least through D16 and beyond. I didnt know about the 45-60 day cycle...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Man, if we can get a repeat of this pattern any time in Dec, Jan, or Feb, and it's play time for all. But because it's in Nov, boundary temps are just too warm outside of the mountains. I say "take your time atmosphere and get it right" for Dec-Feb. I hope it listens to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Man, if we can get a repeat of this pattern any time in Dec, Jan, or Feb, and it's play time for all. But because it's in Nov, boundary temps are just too warm outside of the mountains. I say "take your time atmosphere and get it right" for Dec-Feb. I hope it listens to me. Maybe we'll get lucky with a 6" - 10" paste bomb for Christmas Eve. Something that everyone wins at and covered everything complete. Christmas snow is an automatic win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2017 Author Share Posted November 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, poolz1 said: By 11/20 12z GEFS mean drops the AO to -5 and NAO to -3. It does appear to a stable feature at least through D16 and beyond. I didnt know about the 45-60 day cycle...interesting. I have a whole bunch of individual years graphed out showing the 45-60 day cylce but this data spread tells the same story. These are the top -AO Decembers over the last 60 years or so. You can see the connection with Jan big time. There's approx an 80% chance of a Neg AO Jan when Dec mean AO comes in at -1.3 or lower. Bleeds into Feb as well. Dec can tell a lot about the personality of blocking for the whole season. I also have a similar data spread with +AO Decembers and it tells the same story but in reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2017 Author Share Posted November 9, 2017 10-11 is a good comparison showing a strong +AO in the first half of Nov that flipped mid month. If current LR guidance is correct, it wouldn't surprise me to see a similar blocking episode evolve this year. It's not a good analog because 10-11 was a fairly stout Nina but focusing solely on the high latitudes, it could be a good analog with blocking. We'll know a lot more in a month but the early signs are encouraging at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 @Bob Chill Thanks! Interesting the timing of the AO crash in 2011...almost exactly with whats being modeled. Is that graph something you pulled from online? (the 2011 AO Graph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It's all about perspective. I mean sure, I'd like to see some snow fall in Nov but that's not what this is all about for me. November (especially the second half) can tip the hand of what is in store for early met winter. If the AO plunge proves to have some staying power for the second half of Nov then the odds greatly increase for a -AO December as well. The typical cycle of an anomalous -AO (or +AO) is 45-60 days. THAT is pretty much my entire focus right now....and it looks pretty good too....heh Yeah yeah. It is comforting to see multiple indicies aligning favorably early on. Its also hard not to really push all the chips in for some front loaded loving, as its been a scarcity for far too long. Folks need to just keep it real and be happy to see what were all seeing. I looked at 0z's ensembles and was encouraged at the continuity as they went out towards d10. Steady as she goes..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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