Hurricane Ophelia

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

16 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

 

05 was more active we made it through the alphabet into alpha etc.....

05 is the best analog to this year, not as intense, but pretty awesome to now have a hurricane approaching Ireland ,for some reason, a Cat 5 Gulf means more hurricanes 5000 miles away in the NE Atlantic. Wonder what beyond warm SSTs is so similar in these two seasons. Earth potential energy or something. 

[Windspeed]

Ophelia is crawling. I am actually surprised at how well it has maintained core convection as some upwelling must be occurring. This is one of those fascinating cyclones that due to the much colder mid-latitudinal tropospheric air layer above the ocean surface, 25-26° can get the job done. This looks like a Category 2. Having said that, the core needs to get moving. Even with the favorable atmospheric dynamics, deeper 23-24° is probably the threshold.

[Wannabehippie]

24 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

 

05 was more active we made it through the alphabet into alpha etc.....

2005 though didn't have 10 storms in a row make it to hurricane strength.

 

[Amped]

Impressive little storm, could be close to CAT3 but I doubt they'll upgrade it without a recon.

[KPITSnow]

These are storms that always interest me...ones that move into unusual/atypical areas.

 

Right now it is forecast to stay tropical up until 24 hours out from landfall in Ireland. It will be interesting to see how long it will hold onto tropical status. Even the forecast right now is unusual having a hurricane with a hurricane near 15w and 45n.

 

Finally, this could be a rather bad hit for Ireland. 

[Roger Smith]

A rather similar track for faster-moving Debbie (1961) gave wind gusts into the 80-90 knot range in parts of Ireland and caused considerable damage including de-roofing a hospital in Ulster. 

Ireland on high alert (as I know from being associated with weather forecasting groups there). 

[Windspeed]

Yep, this is a rare track. And based on climatology, we aren't likely to see this again for a number of years. Even post-tropical, the modeling suggest a very powerful surface low. Ireland very well may have a large stretch of coastline experiencing hurricane force wind gusts.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yep, this is a rare track. And based on climatology, we aren't likely to see this again for a number of years. Even post-tropical, the modeling suggest a very powerful surface low. Ireland very well may have a large stretch of coastline experiencing hurricane force wind gusts.

Amazing... this thing is going to be a beast. 

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Amazing... this thing is going to be a beast. 

When's the last time a tropical system hit this area?

[Windspeed]

When's the last time a tropical system hit this area?

Debbie of 1961 is debated to still have had some warm core tropical characteristics due to its rapid forward motion. But I'm not sure any of the post tropical systems were still warm core. It's not unusual to get strong extra tropical lows hit the British Isles and Ireland after transition. It's just rarer to get one transition so close to impact. Which is why there is concern they could have a very strong wind event.

 

The last extra tropical low that brought them hurricane force gusts was Katia in Scotland, 2011. But Katia's low had already phased and joined a N. Atlantic baroclinic low. Ophelia will still be a seperate entity under baroclinic forcing at landfall and but probably not purely warm core by then.

[bluewave]

#Ophelia now has 100 mph winds - the strongest an Atlantic hurricane has been this far east (35.5°W) this late in calendar year on record.pic.twitter.com/6NPJvp2jCP

2:29 PM - 12 Oct 2017

 

Of course, storms over the open Atlantic in locations like #Ophelia may have been under-estimated prior to satellite (mid-1960s).

2:31 PM - 12 Oct 2017

[hlcater]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Yep, this is a rare track. And based on climatology, we aren't likely to see this again for a number of years. Even post-tropical, the modeling suggest a very powerful surface low. Ireland very well may have a large stretch of coastline experiencing hurricane force wind gusts.

I wonder if they would retire a name if the effects from its post-trop/remnants were especially bad and the country requested retirement. Not saying this one would, but that graphic made me consider the question.

[Windspeed]

I wonder if they would retire a name if the effects from its post-trop/remnants were especially bad and the country requested retirement. Not saying this one would, but that graphic made me consider the question.

I doubt it. They are used to strong mid-latitudinal lows and polar fronts. They are accustomed to high wind events and they build for them. Ophelia would need to have wrought some pretty absurd wind damage. Not saying it won't, just doesn't mean they'll request retirement if it does.

[hlcater]

12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

39 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

I wonder if they would retire a name if the effects from its post-trop/remnants were especially bad and the country requested retirement. Not saying this one would, but that graphic made me consider the question.
 

I doubt it. They are used to strong mid-latitudinal lows and polar fronts. They are accustomed to high wind events and they build for them. Ophelia would need to have wrought some pretty absurd wind damage. Not saying it won't, just doesn't mean they'll request retirement if it does.

I was talking more in general as opposed to this one in particular. That graphic just brought that concept to my mind. I feel like Igor went post tropical before Newfoundland and got retired, but may have maintained tropical characteristics. And Ireland gets these strong extratropical lows all the time, shouldn't be too bad for em.

[gymengineer]

13 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

I was talking more in general as opposed to this one in particular. That graphic just brought that concept to my mind. I feel like Igor went post tropical before Newfoundland and got retired, but may have maintained tropical characteristics. And Ireland gets these strong extratropical lows all the time, shouldn't be too bad for em.

Do you think Sandy was too late in ET transition to count for your scenario? Even if it never hit Cuba and caused billions in damage there, there's no way the name would have remained on the list just based on the US damage.

[hlcater]

2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Do you think Sandy was too late in ET transition to count for your scenario? Even if it never hit Cuba and caused billions in damage there, there's no way the name would have remained on the list just based on the US damage.

No, given sandy's hybrid nature right up until landfall, I think it was declared ET in the advisory afterward. Don't quote me here though, I'm not a sandy expert.

[Windspeed]

Ophelia is clearly gaining forward motion to the E or ENE on satellite. Should allow the core to move away from its own upwelling and take advantage of the marginal 26° SSTs to its E and NE. It lacks much outter banding convection. I don't want to use the "A" word, but now that the core is moving, its structure may be organized enough to allow it to make a real run at Category 3 given its atmospheric environment. Even if it does not, it should at least strengthen some more.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, gymengineer said:

Do you think Sandy was too late in ET transition to count for your scenario? Even if it never hit Cuba and caused billions in damage there, there's no way the name would have remained on the list just based on the US damage.

Sandy was still tropical when it hit NJ. It was close to transition since it was becoming frontal, but it still had a warm core. Sandy wasn't a typical tropical entity from when it went north of the Bahamas because of the interaction and later phase with the mid latitude trough. It was a more powerful 1991 Perfect Storm pretty much, that made a NW hook into the coast. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Does anyone know the total number of storms that have made Europe landfall?

[CheeselandSkies]

All three storms named Ophelia in the Atlantic have become hurricanes, and all have been noteworthy in some aspect although none have had a particularly significant impact anywhere as of yet (obviously, otherwise the name would be retired).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Ophelia

2005's version was the one I had in my head might have retired the name, because there was a lot of concern that it might make landfall on the NC coast, possibly as a strong hurricane. However it did not intensify much and just teased the coast with its slow and erratic motion, bringing locally damaging surge and rain but not catastrophic.

2011's actually became the strongest storm in the basin that year but remained out to sea.

Now we have 2017 Ophelia, hanging out in the northeastern Atlantic as a solid Cat 2 over marginal SSTs, and forecast to affect Ireland and the UK as a hurricane force hybrid or freshly post-tropical cyclone.

[Windspeed]

Ophelia did strengthen a little more but this may end up being its maximum intensity.

 

INIT 13/0300Z 30.7N 34.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

 

Still pretty darn impressive for a hurricane at that position. The eye has shrank quite a bit over the last hour and it may be going through a structural change. Perhaps Ophelia has peaked as a purely tropical entity. We'll have to see how it evolves tomorrow.

[gymengineer]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Sandy was still tropical when it hit NJ. It was close to transition since it was becoming frontal, but it still had a warm core. Sandy wasn't a typical tropical entity from when it went north of the Bahamas because of the interaction and later phase with the mid latitude trough. It was a more powerful 1991 Perfect Storm pretty much, that made a NW hook into the coast. 

Just to be clear-- are you disagreeing with the NHC about Sandy's rapid transition to extratropical close to landfall? 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf

Fig 21 and 23 especially explain their rationale--- not only did the eye dissipate but Sandy's lowest pressure relocated to the cooler air upon transition. 

 

[yoda]

Never knew this -- from the 5am disco on Ophelia re her track:

However, NHC's graphical
product suite cannot handle forecast points east of the Prime
Meridian, so the official forecast now cuts off after day 4.

[the ghost of leroy]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like one of those rare times when the pressure may be lower for a hurricane during ET than when it was fully tropical.

 

 

that happens pretty often to storms that don't originate in the deep tropics and never go major

[wxmx]

13 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Does anyone know the total number of storms that have made Europe landfall?

Any threshold? As TS, TD or ET?

0 TS

1 TD (Vince)

Many ET

 

Some noteworthy ETs are Storm #2 1883 (80 kts), Debbie 1961(70 kts) and Floyd 1993 (70 kts)

[dan11295]

Ophelia forecast track is very similar to Debbie, as stated before very rare for Europe to be impacted by a TC so soon after ET transition. They some sometimess get affected by remnants that have merged with another low, though.

[klw]

14 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Does anyone know the total number of storms that have made Europe landfall?

Wikipedia has a pretty extensive list, though most of the discussion is regarding extratropical systems:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_effects_in_Europe

 

 

Then of course there was Tropical Storm 01M in 2011:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/WEBOPS/iotm/iotm/20111108_tropstorm/20111108_tropstorm.html

 

There was another one in the Eastern Mediterranean laast year and one back in the 90's

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/medicane-tropical-storm-mediterranean-sea-31oct2016

[Windspeed]

Ophelia is looking better this early evening. Convection is expanding and wrapping a clear eye again.

[Windspeed]

000 WTNT42 KNHC 132042 TCDAT2
Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL172017 500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017

Ophelia's eye has become better defined over the past 6 hours. Although cloud tops near the inner core of the hurricane are warmer than 24 hours ago, a ring of -50 deg C or colder cloud tops still surrounds the eye. Dvorak current intensity estimates have not changed substantially, and a blend of objective and subjective classifications still supports an initial intensity of 85 kt. Little change in strength is expected while Ophelia remains a hurricane, since the relatively cool SSTs along the hurricane's path will likely be offset by low shear and cold upper-level temperatures for the next 36 h. Extratropical transition will likely begin shortly after that time, as Ophelia begins to interact with a large upper-level trough approaching from the west. The dynamical guidance suggests that Ophelia will deepen in response to the trough, and although the forecast does not explicitly show it, I can not rule out that Ophelia will briefly intensify as it undergoes extratropical transition. By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to occlude and begin weakening, though the expansion of the wind field will result in impacts over portions of the British Isles, regardless of its exact location or strength. By 96 hours, continued weakening and interaction with land will likely cause the surface circulation to become ill-defined, and dissipation is expected shortly thereafter.

Ophelia is beginning to accelerate toward the east-northeast and the initial motion estimate is 060/11 kt. Very little change has been made to the official track forecast. Ophelia is still expected to continue picking up speed on an east-northeast heading while passing south of the Azores during the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 hours, interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough will cause Ophelia to turn toward the northeast and approach Ireland and the western UK in about 72 h. The track guidance is tightly clustered, especially through 72 h, and the new NHC track forecast is close to the various multi-model consensus aids. Although the center of Ophelia is not expected to reach Ireland or the UK until about day 3, wind and rain effects will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due to an approaching cold front. Any deviation to the left of Ophelia's forecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 32.3N 31.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 33.4N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 35.2N 25.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 38.2N 20.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 43.1N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 53.2N 10.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/1800Z 60.5N 2.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$

Forecaster Zelinsky

[Hazey]

The North Atlantic can do weird and funky things to TC's at that latitude. Even ones off the east coast heading south of nfld can be quite beastly. Just another reason why sst's are just one piece of a bid puzzle. Fascinating.