the ghost of leroy Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Feel free to add your own 1. NGOM storms struggle to intensify. Nate was actually a bit of a fighter, it could have been even weaker. 2. October isn't earlier in the season. October climo is unkind for that area. 3. Max sustained winds are rarely measured on land. That doesn't mean it was a tropical storm at landfall. 4. Not all rapid intensification is the same. TS-->cat 1 is somewhat easier than carrying that up from cat 1 to 3. 5. The globals are pretty good and the hurricane models are kinda trash. Same with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 1. All depends on location of loop current. As a general rule it's not necessarily true. 2. Wrong. 3. Yes. 4. Assertion without evidence. Probably wrong. 5. Hurricane models are good for what they're designed for. Globals are good for what they are designed for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 8, 2017 Author Share Posted October 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: 1. All depends on location of loop current. As a general rule it's not necessarily true. There is plenty of literature out there about the tendency of storms to collapse as they landfall in the NGOM. Sure, there are counterexamples, but in general this is a pretty good rule of thumb. Even big loop current storms like Katrina underwent severe degradation as they made landfall. 2. Wrong. OK...why? The area doesn't have many later storms on the record that were of note....especially compared to August and September... 3. Yes. 4. Assertion without evidence. Probably wrong. I just meant that we shouldnt be as impressed with a storm that RI's up to cat 1 as one who makes it into major territory. This RI'd (technically) and never established a closed eyewall. 5. Hurricane models are good for what they're designed for. Globals are good for what they are designed for. The HMON has proven over and over this season to be trash. The HWRF is better but still was not as good as just using the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Pretty sure the GFS didn't have Nate even as a hurricane at all. In fact, I'm sure of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 8, 2017 Author Share Posted October 8, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Pretty sure the GFS didn't have Nate even as a hurricane at all. In fact, I'm sure of it. it's run 4x a day. i am sure you can find a run that was off, but in general the globals did pretty great with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Just now, cmasty1978 said: it's run 4x a day. i am sure you can find a run that was off, but in general the globals did pretty great with this. It was more than one run. It was horrendous on intensity. The euro is a different story, performed pretty well. The GFS was pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 8, 2017 Author Share Posted October 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: It was more than one run. It was horrendous on intensity. The euro is a different story, performed pretty well. The GFS was pretty awful. i don't know how to do archived stuff, but just going through the nate thread it looks like it did just fine on intensity and timing. show me some runs where you think it was bad. i do remember a late hiccup where it came in as a weak TS, maybe the 0z on 10/7?? In the mid range it obviously did very well, and the euro was pretty great too. globals FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 1 hour ago, cmasty1978 said: You are missing the point. This is science. You're pulling stuff out of your you-know-where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 8, 2017 Author Share Posted October 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Drz1111 said: You are missing the point. This is science. You're pulling stuff out of your you-know-where. which point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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