Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 I have mixed feelings about the rain. To get into good rain totals you have to be on the boring wind side. I'd rather have half the rain and have a chance at 30-40+ mph gusts. Toss in a little instability and I'm good. Too bad nate doesn't have another 12-24 hours over water. Not seeing much chance of an eyewall clearing before landfall. Storm is looking good right now but it's moving so fast it's almost teleporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That looks like a really good PRE for areas to our west and north. I’d rather have that honestly. Too many ways to fail at wind and severe with this one IMO. I’m still not even IN. Right now it looks like we're going to miss "maximizing" by 100 miles give or take. Look in the bright side. It's good practice for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: If I have to plant my a$$ in Colorado this winter for a week of action, I will. Getting off topic but I would guess that this winter will have some solid upslope events. I already talked to my buddy who has a condo on deep creek. I'm going to time something. No doubt about it. Heck, his condo would be a good spot for remnant action too. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Clouds and .33 of rain will be a huge win, as far as I'm concerned. A gust to 37 mph will top it off. So dusty out right now. Need any rain so badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Gfs bumped speed up a notch but same track basically. 1-2" in general again. I suppose a good bar is 1.5" qpf and some 35mph gusts. Exponentially more exciting than any weather we've had in the last couple months. At least we can walk away (finally) saying we got touched by tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Outside of something convective popping, its going to be hard to get any good rains imby. Just too far east. Be lucky to see a quarter inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Outside of something convective popping, its going to be hard to get any good rains imby. Just too far east. Be lucky to see a quarter inch. Yea, center track is pretty locked in and it's just a little too west to get our whole region good. I suppose the last wildcard left is intensity. Recon found 979mb with the final center fix. A stronger storm in general is prob the last thing left to boost precip to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Nice LLJ coming through but it's overnight and during the morning so not much Tornado potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like the main thread went to hell Every storm. It's precisely why I stick to the MA forum. Hopefully not taken the wrong way buuuut....I don't really care what happens in other regions. Not saying I don't have sympathy or empathy or anything. It's all about my yard any and every time when it comes to weather. Main threads always end up in some sort of dumb pissing match. It's as predictable as a miller b busting or the rain snow line ending up far north of where we wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 I should go up on the roof and dig the hoards of acorns out of the gutter, but that would suggest I have concerns it may rain, and would surely be the kiss of death. So I shall ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Look at all of that fresh, life-giving rain hitting Louisiana and Alabama. Some places down there may get over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I should go up on the roof and dig the hoards of acorns out of the gutter, but that would suggest I have concerns it may rain, and would surely be the kiss of death. So I shall ignore it. Plan outdoor parties. Move lots of expensive stereo equipment outside. That's the guarantee of wet weather. Also, wash and wax your car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Outside of something convective popping, its going to be hard to get any good rains imby. Just too far east. Be lucky to see a quarter inch. I'll be lucky to get one one thousand twenty fourth of an inch by Oct 15. Weak Nina is never good for rain. Overall DRY is the operative term. Mountains will get lots of rain though. Maybe Nina helps mountains increase orographic forcing somehow, while leaving east of the mountains drier than a proverbial popcorn fart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 "hoards of acorns" Forget La Nina...I'll prep the snowblower! WPC a bit bullish imo ETA: I see this includes the system afterwards also.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Gfs is the wettest model still. Euro gives me around .9 or so and gfs has been consistently 1.5" give or take. I don't like the euro max gust panels but 925s are in the in the 50's around 18z Mon. Would be nice to have a band or 2 of heavy showers come though between 10am-2pm range on Monday timed with the best mid level winds. 3k nam brings a decent line through during that time. Skyline drive would prob be a good close place to chase. 40-50 mph winds would be likely up there. I'm half tempted...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Not even going to look and or police it this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Not even going to look and or police it this time. don't worry, vigilante justice worked this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs is the wettest model still. Euro gives me around .9 or so and gfs has been consistently 1.5" give or take. I don't like the euro max gust panels but 925s are in the in the 50's around 18z Mon. Would be nice to have a band or 2 of heavy showers come though between 10am-2pm range on Monday timed with the best mid level winds. 3k nam brings a decent line through during that time. Skyline drive would prob be a good close place to chase. 40-50 mph winds would be likely up there. I'm half tempted...lol Just looking at satellite loops and extrapolating, seems like the cold front could force Nate more east than modeled giving most of mid atlantic a nice soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: That 90 mph ceiling call wasn’t too bad You should play the lottery tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 0z gfs and 3k upped qpf. 3k actually looks half decent with some heavy showers timed with the best mid level winds. Surprised yoda didn't post about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Are there any reports of hurricane force winds at the surface during landfall for Nate? Best I can find so far are some gusts on top of towers and oil rigs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 2 hours ago, smokeybandit said: Are there any reports of hurricane force winds at the surface during landfall for Nate? Best I can find so far are some gusts on top of towers and oil rigs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 3 hours ago, smokeybandit said: Are there any reports of hurricane force winds at the surface during landfall for Nate? Best I can find so far are some gusts on top of towers and oil rigs Highest observation from an official station that I could find: Biloxi (KBIX) 53/70 That's about par for the course from official stations for a category 1 landfall. Just glance at the Tropical Cyclone Reports from category 1 landfalls like Dolly 2008, Gaston 2004, Cindy 2005. There aren't going to be abundant hurricane-force gusts in official stations. Maybe an unofficial station somewhere between Biloxi and Mobile recorded a >73 mph gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 So how can it be a Cat 1 at landfall if there are no Cat 1 winds at landfall? I ask in all seriousness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: So how can it be a Cat 1 at landfall if there are no Cat 1 winds at landfall? I ask in all seriousness. absent a dense mesonet at the landfall point you usually will not see the max sustained winds sampled. this has been true forever. it's no different than other cat 1's in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: So how can it be a Cat 1 at landfall if there are no Cat 1 winds at landfall? I ask in all seriousness. The NHC assumes that the highest sustained wind didn't happen to be right over an official reporting station. In other words, if you had a continuous row of calibrated anemometers stretching across the entire diameter of maximum winds, at least one of those anemometers should record a sustained hurricane force wind at standard height. It's not just with category 1 hurricanes. Category 4 hurricanes like Hugo and Charley, and even Andrew--the assigned maximum sustained wind is not recorded by any official station. I think Celia (1970) may have been the only exception in Corpus Christi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s why recon is so important. It gives us the best sense of the structure and intensity of a TC, absent direct surface observations. I can’t imagine how different tropical forecasting would be without recon. The satellite age does a pretty good job in general. I would guess most Mets and experienced enthusiasts can do a pretty good job short term forecasting without recon. Won't be as accurate of course but I don't think short term forecasts would wildly incorrect. Otoh- recon makes a sizeable difference with longer lead/intensity forecasting. Both with models and mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I can’t imagine how different tropical forecasting would be without recon. Life goes on. Most TC's globally don't have recon data and forecasts continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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