Bob Chill Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: With remnant tropical cyclones you're really not going to get any sort of hail risk most times. TOR would be the main threat IF any severe threat materializes. Even damaging wind wouldn't be up at the levels of a regular DC area severe threat. TOR is what you have to hope for is you want a severe threat. I like the 6z gfs center pass better than 0z. We could get some good gusts in heavier showers. If Nate makes LF better organized, I could see 850 winds in the 60's. As you mentioned earlier, forward speed adds to this as well. Like I said before, I'm not expecting a high impact event but an interesting day on tap is in the cards at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Let's see how we can screw this up for our yards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 They already have hurricane warnings out for the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 38 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Let's see how we can screw this up for our yards... Precip stripe is pretty narrow. That's the primary suspect for fail. Wind or severe is bonus level stuff so you can't really fail there because we probably won't do well either way....but there's chance so...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Fun modest event on the 12Z GFS-- windier than 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Fun modest event on the 12Z GFS-- windier than 6Z. I'll trade the heavier rain for the windy side any day. 12-18z monday would be the "fun" window. Something to look forward to for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 As long as there's some tangible rain to wet the desert that is my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Center becoming more clearly defined now. Hopefully it stays over water as it passes the yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 5pm track from NHC looks nice... 60mph sustained on the 5pm adv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Has the NWS officially stopped distinguishing between "tropical storm/hurricane watches and warnings" and "inland tropical storm/hurricane watches and warnings?" There was the hubbub about Atlanta being under TS warning for the first time with Irma, and now on the Birmingham page, there are TS Watches up for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Most important thing to me is whether recon finds a core. Wow that was quick! I wonder if Nate makes a run at cat 2. Rapid intensification has been the theme all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Latest frames from vis sat shows convection firing on the SE side of Nate...can it wrap around to the E and N side??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Some conflicting signals at the moment. The buoy 42056 report of 56 mph/g 69 mph is intriguing because it *was* near the center of Nate at the time of the report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 2 hours ago, gymengineer said: Has the NWS officially stopped distinguishing between "tropical storm/hurricane watches and warnings" and "inland tropical storm/hurricane watches and warnings?" There was the hubbub about Atlanta being under TS warning for the first time with Irma, and now on the Birmingham page, there are TS Watches up for inland areas. TS watches up for the Atlanta area and NW GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: TS watches up for the Atlanta area and NW GA Last season, those would have been "inland TS watches," right? That's why I found it weird for news sources to make a big deal about Atlanta being under a TS warning for the first time ever with Irma. That product wasn't available for inland areas before this season, I think. I may be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 I'm getting pretty interested. Current recon 991mb and the flight just an hour or so before found hurricane force FL winds on the east side. Center won't touch land until the gulf coast. Track remains good for our area for "acceptable" gusts. Forward speed will help boost things as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 0z hurr models clustered with a near perfect track. Intensity forecasts are ramping up now. About half have a cat 1. Big jump from previous runs. Next 24 hours should be kinda fun with intensity forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: My guess is that we’re seeing gradual intensification but I don’t see any real strong RI signals right now. Hopefully 00z has a tick closer to a perfect MA track. I don’t like the Euro verbatim. Yea, fast forward speed and not much time before LF for anything shocking to happen. Just a wag but cat 2 is prob the ceiling. Cat 2 at LF and a beeline here will destroy all other trop events this year in our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 070255 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 ...NATE ALMOST A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 86.4W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES ........ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flights indicate that Nate continues to strengthen and is near hurricane strength. The NOAA plane measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind of 75 kt, but the SFMR instruments on both planes have only measured surface winds as high as 55 kt. It seems that the highest winds haven't quite mixed down to the surface, but it's likely that the system is at least producing surface winds of 60 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The NOAA flight also reported that an eyewall is forming to the east of Nate's center. Nate has been accelerating toward the north-northwest between a large cyclonic gyre centered over southern Mexico and a mid-level high located over the southwestern Atlantic, and the initial motion estimate is 340/19 kt. This north-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours, with Nate turning northward and slowing down only slightly around the time it is forecast to cross the northern Gulf coast between 24-36 hours. After landfall, the cyclone is expected to get swept up ahead of a large mid-latitude trough, and accelerate northeastward over the eastern United States. At least up until landfall, the track guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous one. After landfall, the new forecast is just a tad slower in order to give some credence to the slower solution provided by the ECMWF model. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for Nate to continue strengthening up until the time it makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Nate is likely to become a hurricane overnight, and the new NHC forecast has been raised to a peak intensity of 75 kt at 24 hours based on guidance from the SHIPS and LGEM models. The intensity consensus and HCCA are lower than that due to the HWRF solution, which shows absolutely no strengthening before landfall. Disregarding that solution, it seems prudent to be above the consensus, close to the upper end of the guidance envelope. Rapid intensification still cannot be ruled out since the indices are showing a 50/50 chance of a 25-kt increase over the next 24 hours. If Nate becomes a hurricane soon, then additional increases in the official intensity forecast may be necessary in subsequent advisories. Aircraft data indicate that Nate is an asymmetric storm, with most of the winds located on the eastern side of the circulation, and this structure is likely to continue until landfall due to the cyclone's fast forward speed. Therefore, locations to the east of where Nate makes landfall are expected to receive significantly stronger winds than locations to the west of the center. Regardless, there is still too much uncertainty to know exactly where landfall will occur, and all locations within the hurricane warning area should be preparing for hurricane-force winds. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is now in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation instructions given by local officials. 2. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in these areas. 3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the the potential for flash flooding in these areas. 4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday into Monday, which will also increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 22.3N 86.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 25.1N 87.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 28.5N 88.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 31.4N 88.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 34.7N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0000Z 40.5N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 44.5N 63.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z...ABSORBED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 lol 00z NAM has some HUGE curved hodographs for 21z MON and 00z TUES, but next to zero instability (though a few hundred SBCAPE at 03z TUES) at KIAD... there is a lil bit more instability as you head SE of KIAD (to like KEZF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Nate is awful close to cane status now. FL winds 80kts. Satellite looks good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nate is awful close to cane status now. FL winds 80kts. Satellite looks good too 11pm disco did mention the formation of an eyewall per NOAA flight to the east of the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 986mb. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 000 WTNT61 KNHC 070329 TCUAT1 Hurricane Nate Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1030 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 ...NATE BECOMES A HURRICANE... An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just penetrated the center of Nate and reported hurricane-force winds. The maximum winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 1030 PM CDT...0330 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 86.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg/Avila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Nine consecutive hurricanes. Exceptional season. Remember when forget who he was, was saying how this season was going to be a dud back in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 This kind of reminds me of opal track wise...perhaps the impacts up here could be similar?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 6 hours ago, alexderiemer said: This kind of reminds me of opal track wise...perhaps the impacts up here could be similar? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk What did Opal bring to this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 6z looks as though the rainfall will be lack luster at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 39 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 6z looks as though the rainfall will be lack luster at best. I have mentally set the bar at 1.50" for my backyard just to help alleviate the five week dry spell, and verbatim, the gfs paints that line right along 95 for this area. The euro is only about an inch so I'm figuring on disappointment, but both models say the best action is only 50-75 miles west so maybe we get lucky? I'd love some real remnant action but even if the track is closer to us, my guess is the high ridges out west have the best shot at any legitimate gusts. Overall, like Mattie said a day or two ago, a solid soaker is primary for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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