George BM Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Nate thread since it's the main action everyone's talking about... and might bring something this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 George sure does like him some new threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 What are we expecting to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, mappy said: What are we expecting to happen? Breezy showers. And yes, that is a significant event considering the past month or so. They might close schools. At least Loudon or PW will anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, mappy said: What are we expecting to happen? No expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 1 hour ago, mappy said: What are we expecting to happen? Measurable rainfall, which I have not had since Sept. 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Breezy showers. And yes, that is a significant event considering the past month or so. They might close schools. At least Loudon or PW will anyways. we do lame events so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 The way this is going, I'm not expecting more than a breeze at this point. What a snoozefest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Breezy showers. And yes, that is a significant event considering the past month or so. They might close schools. At least Loudon or PW will anyways. Fauquier is usually the first to close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 The afternoon disco re Nate from LWX is pretty good I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 EPS track plot kinda sucks imo. We need the center to run the apps at the very least to have wind and/or severe potential. Very tight cluster west of the apps. We can't even do remnants right. lol. Props to the GFS/GEFS is the track ends up west like this. Hopefully the center misses the Yucatan. If the eventual track is west like consensus is currently showing, we need Nate to be as strong as possible. I'll laugh if get less than a half inch of rain out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 7 hours ago, mattie g said: George sure does like him some new threads. He better not sleep between Thanksgiving and Easter or someone might start a storm thread before he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: He better not sleep between Thanksgiving and Easter or someone might start a storm thread before he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 11pm NHC track has Nate moving to our northwest at 96 hrs (8pm MON) and is in extreme W MD at that time... so maybe some severe chance Monday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 I'm liking the gfs track. Close to perfect honestly. Up i81 would be the ultimate but not a bad run for under 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 00z GFS looks great for rain late Sunday night into Monday... and maybe some severe tossed in as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 1-2 inches for most in the LWX CWA per 00z GFS through 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 We'll have clouds and some drizzle. The autumn will remember. Always go with persistence. For the Mid Atlantic, the tropical systems have been bone dry. So, Nate will be no different, it will track well north, we'll have warm humid DRY weather. The entire fall will be dry per weak La Nina. Weak La Ninas are drier than normal, warmer than normal. This Nate forecast is a no-brainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 @losetoa6 I know you have posted the UKMET a thousand times with links but I refuse to save the link for some reason...Curious how the overnight run looked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 If Nate does make it solidly into hurricane strength territory, I think there will probably be sporadic tree damage on the eastern side of the center throughout much of its path inland because of its fast forward speed. That helps not just in shortening the time over land, but also in enhancing the "gustiness" of the winds themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie track very nice.. https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2017/2017100600/ukm2.2017100912.084.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png Link saved! Much appreciated..Yes, very nice track that is in line with other globals. At least we are in the game for something more interesting than just a rainy day...Pregame tropical training is the key and where that sets up will almost be a nowcasting situation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yep.. If decent track continues and Nate is a Hurricane at landfall and with forward speed like gymen.spoke of there Should be some fun nowcasting and a few surprises as always the case with a tropical system. The storm evolution through the gulf looks unbalanced. I'm sure someone with better knowledge can answer this far better than me but the west side of the storm never fully develops so it's lopsided on the east side. Probably has to do with the strong steering winds in the upper levels. To get into good winds we need a close pass to the west it seems. Stronger winds on all guidance after landfall are tight to the center and on the right side only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 12z hurr model tracks are completely acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 0z EPS is right in the pocket with the hurr's and GEFS. We wasted an ungodly amount of time looking at tropical this season and haven't even gotten more than a sprinkle. I suppose this is some sort of payback. Won't be high impact or anything but far better than blanking out with every single storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 The 06z NAM would be the ideal weenie solution. The arrival of Nate would be delayed here until Monday afternoon, and we would heat into the 80s before the strong wind fields and lift arrive. The more progressive solutions bring the remnants through much earlier, and we have no sfc-based instability to take advantage of the impressive wind fields above. Of course, at this point, I'll just be happy with a good soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 All I want is some rain and severe risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The storm evolution through the gulf looks unbalanced. I'm sure someone with better knowledge can answer this far better than me but the west side of the storm never fully develops so it's lopsided on the east side. Probably has to do with the strong steering winds in the upper levels. To get into good winds we need a close pass to the west it seems. Stronger winds on all guidance after landfall are tight to the center and on the right side only. I've noticed that the HWRF on multiple runs returns Nate to TS strength around our area because winds once again get to flow over a significant body of water (the Chesapeake Bay). Probably not correct, but it's algorithm keeps on repeating that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, high risk said: The 06z NAM would be the ideal weenie solution. The arrival of Nate would be delayed here until Monday afternoon, and we would heat into the 80s before the strong wind fields and lift arrive. The more progressive solutions bring the remnants through much earlier, and we have no sfc-based instability to take advantage of the impressive wind fields above. Of course, at this point, I'll just be happy with a good soaking. I was going to post about this, but you beat me to it. 06z NAM would be really nice for a severe risk and possibly a few tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, yoda said: I was going to post about this, but you beat me to it. 06z NAM would be really nice for a severe risk and possibly a few tornadoes With remnant tropical cyclones you're really not going to get any sort of hail risk most times. TOR would be the main threat IF any severe threat materializes. Even damaging wind wouldn't be up at the levels of a regular DC area severe threat. TOR is what you have to hope for is you want a severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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