Post Christmas Bomb

[NEK_VT_Upslope_Event]

That is an incredibly sharp QPF cut-off from SE to NW. looks like a .01" degradation for every 1-2 miles.

[snowNH]

I don't want it too much further west otherwise there will be mixing only the coast north of Boston right? Or too early to tell?

Eff that.. the cape already had their snow... come west and north young man

[Damage In Tolland]

Smack this b**ch up

at 108n hrs look at the 500 mb map

then the surface

IMO the Low is still waaaaaaaaay too far east given that the 500 Low closed and negative SHOULD be capturing it and pulling it back

[mattlacroix4]

The most important thing is that it did shift. This is a huge win, and I expect it will continue westward in the next few runs. With the GFS on board with this type of solution, I think a little more merit will be given, even though the GFS isn't well trusted right now. The general idea of this evolving is the most important thing.

[CoastalWx]

What a weenie solution. ACK would gust past 75kts on the soundings.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

You're joking right? A storm Of this magnitude I am.going to complain

In coastal CT...you learn to take what you can get. That's not to say I'm not going to be bitter if I get 6" and the Cape gets 2 feet...I just said I wouldn't complain

If we're aiming for the stars here...i.e. a true measure-by-the-foot blizzard, we need the Euro to hold. Any sizeable eastward shift and my confidence remains that this is no more than a scraper SECS/MECS.

[dryslot]

Its better, But i remain skeptical, Outside of SE Mass pretty sharp cuttoff west, This run, But the trend was west we need NNW.............

[CT Rain]

What a weenie solution. ACK would gust past 75kts on the soundings.

Yeah that's an incredible gradient there

[DomNH]

Beautiful dendrites falling here. Sign of the times. It's going to be a snowy week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

What a weenie solution. ACK would gust past 75kts on the soundings.

I'm glad the GFS is Phil special right now because that is what I fear.

Off to the int.....text me EURO please, if you can.

[CoastalWx]

I'm glad the GFS is Phil special right now because that is what I fear.

Off to the int.....text me EURO please, if you can.

Sure. Good luck man. It's not even a Phil special...more like a 40/70 special. I wouldn't want a 400 miles jog west.

[dryslot]

Sure. Good luck man. It's not even a Phil special...more like a 40/70 special. I wouldn't want a 400 miles jog west.

I would take 75-100 miles though...

[radarman]

Dust storms.

I can slant-stick dirt drifts

[snowNH]

Anybody have that feeling that the euro will come in with a 1993 superbomb?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just like old times..Euro locks onto a bomb and the GFS is 100's of miles OTS..then we watch it jump back west..creep creep,, then wham bam thank you mam

[CoastalWx]

I would take 75-100 miles though...

People should not want giants leaps in their favor. It never works out. Take it step by step. We'll see what the Canadian and Euro do.

[OKpowdah]

See what a little positivity will do for you. All of us FTW as we thought

[snowNH]

God look at that 500 map.. should be saved for textbooks

[dryslot]

Just like old times..Euro locks onto a bomb and the GFS is 100's of miles OTS..then we watch it jump back west..creep creep,, then wham bam thank you mam

Like a yo yo we need the euro to shift east as the gfs needed to be west...........

[CoastalWx]

If you color him purple...there is a resemblance.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Put the GFS solution of a mega bomb on the BM and move the EURO east, this is a mega storm which will give the Cape some mixing issues, but the winds will be incredible.

[OKpowdah]

Smack this b**ch up

He obviously isn't noting the huge trough diving down from Quebec then, because the low track makes a lot of sense given the track of that disturbance

[Baroclinic Zone]

Anybody have that feeling that the euro will come in with a 1993 superbomb?

No.

[CoastalWx]

Put the GFS solution of a mega bomb on the BM and move the EURO east, this is a mega storm which will give the Cape some mixing issues, but the winds will be incredible.

You are cold on the gfs.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I think the storm in Feb '04 was close to it. The great white hurricane for Halifax NS.

I believe they called it "White Juan" b/c they had been pummeled by Hurricane Juan that summer.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't want it too much further west otherwise there will be mixing only the coast north of Boston right? Or too early to tell?

I doubt it:

1) These types of exotic deepening rates bend the subgeostrophic (low level wind field) quite normal to the isobaric medium (where typically a balance flow would be approximately 20 degrees for subgeostrophy). In this case, the deepening rate exceed the time-integration of Coriolis effect, such that the wind will blow almost directly at the low when it drops 12mb is 4 hours that way. What that means sensibly is that the wind will be NNE, and will also help pull down signicant cold over snow pack in central and N New England.

2) This thing is about as dynamically charged as is physically possible on the Planet Earth. The combination of torque dynamics froma negatively tilting trough with attending 40+ units of vorticity advecting nearly normal (straight across) the geopotential medium, combined with this doing operation turbo suckage off the Gulf and near-by SE U.S. Gulf Stream latent heat sources, is pretty much indescribably amazing here. Lift in the core of this ... may as well be a tornado. Lift drills the heights and thicknesses lower (complicated boring math) and that feeds back into cooling the column.

If that tracks about 100 miles closer people would be shocked at the whiteout blitz going on all the way down to BOS-PVD line, with a mixin between there and the Canal.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

You are cold on the gfs.

I know Scott, I probably will if the EURO and GFS meet halfway on the BM given close proximity to the ocean and proximity to the 960mb bomb. Although the GFS seems more plausible solution, the EURO is a little tad too far west right now.

Any EURO QPF for the mid week snows?

[Damage In Tolland]

Like a yo yo we need the euro to shift east as the gfs needed to be west...........

Like sands thru the hourglass.these are the days of our lives

[Damage In Tolland]

I doubt it:

1) These types of exotic deepening rates bend the subgeostrophic (low level wind field) quite normal to the isobaric medium (where typically a balance flow would be approximately 20 degrees for subgeostrophy). In this case, the deepening rate exceed the time-integration of Coriolis effect, such that the wind will blow almost directly at the low when it drops 12mb is 4 hours that way. What that means sensibly is that the wind will be NNE, and will also help pull down signicant cold over snow pack in central and N New England.

2) This thing is about as dynamically charged as is physically possible on the Planet Earth. The combination of torque dynamics froma negatively tilting trough with attending 40+ units of vorticity advecting nearly normal (straight across) the geopotential medium, combined with this doing operation turbo suckage off the Gulf and near-by SE U.S. Gulf Stream latent heat sources, is pretty much indescribably amazing here. Lift in the core of this ... may as well be a tornado. Lift drills the heights and thicknesses lower (complicated boring math) and that feeds back into cooling the column.

If that tracks about 100 miles closer people would be shocked at the whiteout blitz going on all the way down to BOS-PVD line, with a mixin between there and the Canal.

Will there be any office buildings in New england with any windows left?

[dilly84]

Looks like the GFS is coming more in line with the euro for you guys. I'm interested to see if the euro shows another nuke hitting the EC. If it does that'd make 4 consecutive runs to show it. You guys will be looking good. And its coming on shore now. I'm rooting for it. GL to you guys. Hope you get destroyed.