Post Christmas Bomb

[A-L-E-X]

There's a few analogs you should be looking at with respect to KU/NINA

1) December 1909-- on xmas day, limited KU event in a mod-strong la nina

2) January 2000-- on xmas day, a limited KU event in a mod-strong la nina

3) February 1989-- near miss in a strong la nina (dropped 19" on ACY)

by "limited KU", I mean it met the snowfall requirements in at least one city (out of DC,BWI,PHL,NYC,BOS).

[CT Rain]

seems JB (hype free) so i figured i would post it just whatever to the discussion

from the accuweather page regarding the christmas storm

"Expert Senior Meteorologist Dale Mohler stated that he is noticing some similarities on the charts with this storm and the March 1993 super storm."Every storm is different, but I could see how this storm 'bombs out' somewhere along the East Coast. The question is how far north or east," Mohler stated.AccuWeather.com meteorologists believe that none of the computer models have the exact idea on the storm, and they are basing current forecasts on years of experience in these situations.There are two scenarios for this storm, as the AccuWeather team sees it now.The first is the storm will quickly strengthen, tracking northward along the coast and spreading heavy, accumulating snow through the I-95 mid-Atlantic and New England. Snow could extend back to the Appalachians with this track.The second is the storm will drop accumulating snow on part of Georgia and the Carolinas, but then head out to sea. However, this track could still allow the storm to hook back into New England with heavy, windswept snow."

the only thing that trouble's me is that there has never been a KU when 3.4 enso region is 1C below or more. but up until last week there had never been a AO below 4 with the same 3.4 enso region and we absolutely crushed that. But it should give reason for Pause. Ryan do you have any thoughts on this....and why this may mean the KU solution should be looked at with some skepitism.

I think this is sort of overrated given how anomalous this pattern is. We have had a raging -NAO which is extremely unusual for such a strong Nina and look at how strong the subtropical jet is right now with record rain in SoCal. Not very Nina-like!

[A-L-E-X]

I think this is sort of overrated given how anomalous this pattern is. We have had a raging -NAO which is extremely unusual for such a strong Nina and look at how strong the subtropical jet is right now with record rain in SoCal. Not very Nina-like!

Also, some of this can be put down to coincidence.... as a difference of 50 miles can mean the difference between a near miss and a direct hit. Yes the sample size is small, but it isnt zero.

[CoastalWx]

I think this is sort of overrated given how anomalous this pattern is. We have had a raging -NAO which is extremely unusual for such a strong Nina and look at how strong the subtropical jet is right now with record rain in SoCal. Not very Nina-like!

I can't believe socal. That's fooking incredible.

[cpickett79]

I think this is sort of overrated given how anomalous this pattern is. We have had a raging -NAO which is extremely unusual for such a strong Nina and look at how strong the subtropical jet is right now with record rain in SoCal. Not very Nina-like!

I think partially over rated ......... ....but i never ever go against Don S.

yes the raging -NAO is extremely unusual yes but THE KEY IS...... will TWO extremely unusual things take place? AND does the -NAO have a strong direct correlation that a KU Event would be more likely or even very likely given enso 3.4 set up. seems like there is much more room on the side of a non KU to me. I would love to get geeked up about this but right now i just hope it doesn't whiff in the next 3 euro runs.

[A-L-E-X]

I can't believe socal. That's fooking incredible.

Another eyepopping number : over 17 FEET of snow in the mountains. They might be nearing 20 feet by now lol. That's 240 inches!

[amarshall]

I'm a noob. Can someone explain a KU event or point me to a website that I can read about it. I've searched on google and get 5 pages of Kansas University.

[Tropopause_Fold]

the more i look at this the more i can't decide if i think this goes seaward then hooks or just does the straight SW to NE shot.

[A-L-E-X]

strongly disagree ..........i mean this will all due respect ....but i never ever go against Don S.

yes the raging -NAO is extremely unusual yes but THE KEY IS...... will TWO extremely unusual things take place? AND does the -NAO have a strong direct correlation that a KU Event would be more likely or even very likely? seems like there is much more room on the side of a non KU to me. I would love to get geeked up about this but right now i just hope it doesn't whiff in the next 3 euro runs.

Check out those three analogs-- they were pretty close. Also, you can have heavy snowfalls without them being full blown KU events. When you have very near misses, some of this can be put down to coincidence and chaos. Yes, the sample size is small, but it isnt zero. No reason for you to get your hopes up or down-- just wait and see what happens.

I dont understand why people beg for "certainty" at this time range-- its actually much more awesome when we dont know whats going to happen!

BTW Don never said a given solution was or wasnt going to happen. I talked to him myself. He just gave out probabilities. Sorry to say this, but you making that post in DT's thread just opened you up to getting a tongue lashing when DT sees it lol.

[moneypitmike]

Another eyepopping number : over 17 FEET of snow in the mountains. They might be nearing 20 feet by now lol. That's 240 inches!

Link?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

seems JB (hype free) so i figured i would post it just whatever to the discussion

from the accuweather page regarding the christmas storm

"Expert Senior Meteorologist Dale Mohler stated that he is noticing some similarities on the charts with this storm and the March 1993 super storm."Every storm is different, but I could see how this storm 'bombs out' somewhere along the East Coast. The question is how far north or east," Mohler stated.AccuWeather.com meteorologists believe that none of the computer models have the exact idea on the storm, and they are basing current forecasts on years of experience in these situations.There are two scenarios for this storm, as the AccuWeather team sees it now.The first is the storm will quickly strengthen, tracking northward along the coast and spreading heavy, accumulating snow through the I-95 mid-Atlantic and New England. Snow could extend back to the Appalachians with this track.The second is the storm will drop accumulating snow on part of Georgia and the Carolinas, but then head out to sea. However, this track could still allow the storm to hook back into New England with heavy, windswept snow."

the only thing that trouble's me is that there has never been a KU when 3.4 enso region is 1C below or more. but up until last week there had never been a AO below 4 with the same 3.4 enso region and we absolutely crushed that. But it should give reason for Pause. Ryan do you have any thoughts on this....and why this may mean the KU solution should be looked at with some skepitism.

That's actually the same write up they've had up since yesterday.

They usually have their staff met. meetings around 8 or 9 and a new write up should be up by 10am or so.

[CT Rain]

the more i look at this the more i can't decide if i think this goes seaward then hooks or just does the straight SW to NE shot.

Yeah, me either.

I like the Euro and ensembles holding serve. Hard to go against its consistency.

[cpickett79]

Check out those three analogs-- they were pretty close. Also, you can have heavy snowfalls without them being full blown KU events.

yes you could but ......given where the storm is coming from the most likely way to accomplish that would be seaward then hooking.....and for all practical purposes we just had that last weekend. now wether this could be a "similiar version" but 150 miles or so more west is my question. so long as i see over a foot i "DGAF" how it happens so long as it snows hard.

[CT Rain]

I think partially over rated ......... ....but i never ever go against Don S.

yes the raging -NAO is extremely unusual yes but THE KEY IS...... will TWO extremely unusual things take place? AND does the -NAO have a strong direct correlation that a KU Event would be more likely or even very likely given enso 3.4 set up. seems like there is much more room on the side of a non KU to me. I would love to get geeked up about this but right now i just hope it doesn't whiff in the next 3 euro runs.

Well what makes the setup weird is that you have a setup around here that isn't acting anything like a Nina.

> Strong -NAO

> Popping a +PNA ridge

> Strong subtropical jet with a crazy train of disturbances influencing SoCal (which you'd expect in a strong NinO)

[ROOSTA]

I'm a noob. Can someone explain a KU event or point me to a website that I can read about it. I've searched on google and get 5 pages of Kansas University.

http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?ref=rss&a=152

[A-L-E-X]

Link?

It was on TV lol, I'll try to find a link for you.

Found it

http://www.bloomberg...from-storm.html

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency in six counties in the face of flooding rains and mounting snow from a storm that may be beneficial as well as destructive.

“The circumstances of these storms, by reason of their magnitude, are or are likely to be beyond the control of the services, personnel, equipment and facilities of any single county, or city,” Schwarzenegger said in his proclamation.

An estimated 17 feet (5.2 meters) of snow has fallen in less than a week at a monitor near the Kern River in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains, according to the U.S. Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 17 feet of snow has fallen in the Sierra Nevada and locally over 26 inches of rain has soaked the mountains of Southern California. In addition, more than 15 inches of rain has fallen as far east as southern Utah.

....

Measuring Snow in Feet

In the Sierra Nevada mountains, snow totals are being measured in feet. The estimated 17 feet at the Pascoes near the Kern River is the highest. Other estimates are 16 feet at the West Woodchuck Meadow monitor near the Kings River and 15.9 feet at the Wet Meadow station on the Kern River, according to the hydrometeorological center in Camp Springs, Maryland.

Skiers are already benefiting. Eric Doyne, a spokesman for Ski Lake Tahoe, a marketing group for seven resorts, said this season’s opening was one of the strongest in at least a decade.

[CoastalWx]

Well what makes the setup weird is that you have a setup around here that isn't acting anything like a Nina.

> Strong -NAO

> Popping a +PNA ridge

> Strong subtropical jet with a crazy train of disturbances influencing SoCal (which you'd expect in a strong NinO)

Yeah I mean all those can happen in a Nina....but all three are extreme right now..lol. Just incredible.

[cpickett79]

I dont understand why people beg for "certainty" at this time range-- its actually much more awesome when we dont know whats going to happen!

BTW Don never said a given solution was or wasnt going to happen. I talked to him myself. He just gave out probabilities. Sorry to say this, but you making that post in DT's thread just opened you up to getting a tongue lashing when DT sees it lol.

i'm not begging for certainty. It's clear from my post that i said it's reason for pause.

first settle down with the tounge lashing lol i dont care and will stand on my own two feet there BC it's a Rationale post. I am arguing that it is a reason for pause and skeptisim not that IT CANT or WONT happen.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah, me either.

I like the Euro and ensembles holding serve. Hard to go against its consistency.

ec ens has been pretty steady yeah. ec kinda burped last night, not too surprising given the extreme event it was showing previously.

[A-L-E-X]

i'm not begging for certainty. It's clear from my post that i said it's reason for pause.

first settle down with the tounge lashing lol i dont care and will stand on my own two feet there BC it's a Rationale post. I am arguing that it is a reason for pause and skeptisim not that IT CANT or WONT happen.

I understand and yea, this storm has a high margin for error, it's basically something that will be low confidence probably until within 48 hours of the event. I'm very settled down -- it's his response to you I'm worried about lol.

[cpickett79]

Well what makes the setup weird is that you have a setup around here that isn't acting anything like a Nina.

> Strong -NAO

> Popping a +PNA ridge

> Strong subtropical jet with a crazy train of disturbances influencing SoCal (which you'd expect in a strong NinO)

so it sounds like your saying if there were ever a time a KU would happen during an enso 3.4 -1c state now would be the time with multiple paramaters operating completely unlike a nina pattern.

in my mind that would make this closer to 50/50 but it's very difficult for me to see an event in weather playing out that has 117 years of climo against it.

Ryan let me ask you this....b/c i don't care how i get to a foot + of snow......what are the odds you think that a storm similiar to last weekends unfolds in the sense that it swings east then hooks toward SNE ....only a bit further NW with initial barcolinic instability so = closer of a track.

[CoastalWx]

ec ens has been pretty steady yeah. ec kinda burped last night, not too surprising given the extreme event it was showing previously.

It's still on the western edge of the envelope of solutions, but not as bad as yesterday.

[CT Rain]

ec ens has been pretty steady yeah. ec kinda burped last night, not too surprising given the extreme event it was showing previously.

Op Euro is like over CHH... not bad.

Different than the 12z run but still an awesome track with a later phase.

[mahk_webstah]

HMMMM...Euro DID NOT go OTS, UKMET is WAY better (0z vs 12), 6z GFS is a blizzard. Yet I'm hearing a ton of qvetching. Glad I slept.

First time in years I stayed up for the Euro. Glad you slept, you probably needed it. Still trying to get a handle on the post Euro modeling as I'm a little bleary. Seems like the hit is for all of us though which I like.

[CT Rain]

Yeah I mean all those can happen in a Nina....but all three are extreme right now..lol. Just incredible.

Yeah, at the same time and they're all extreme.

[Tropopause_Fold]

so it sounds like your saying if there were ever a time a KU would happen during an enso 3.4 -1c state now would be the time with multiple paramaters operating completely unlike a nina pattern.

in my mind that would make this closer to 50/50 but it's very difficult for me to see an event in weather playing out that has 117 years of climo against it.

Ryan let me ask you this....b/c i don't care how i get to a foot + of snow......what are the odds you think that a storm similiar to last weekends unfolds in the sense that it swings east then hooks toward SNE ....only a bit further NW with initial barcolinic instability so = closer of a track.

the forcing is so strong this go around, that is probably rather meaningless

[A-L-E-X]

It's still on the western edge of the envelope of solutions, but not as bad as yesterday.

The GFS and Euro are what, about 50-100 miles apart at this point? Looks like the possibilities are definitely being narrowed down and the GFS is edging a bit westward based on what the ensembles are doing.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's still on the western edge of the envelope of solutions, but not as bad as yesterday.

yeah and it also lost the epic stall.

[cpickett79]

the forcing is so strong this go around, that is probably rather meaningless

good call i was kinda reaching.

but im just trying to get a met to look at the enso climo KU's and then tell me wether out to sea then hook toward us could be more viable (or not) and wether it did.....would we likely get buried ...brushed or in between .

[CT Rain]

yeah and it also lost the epic stall.

Not a huge surprise there lol