nutmegfriar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What are those? Those are the people in the Mercedes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro has over 60 kts too. One other thing. The dryslot gets close to se mass ont he euro. No doubt qpf would be farther nw based on 850-500 RH pattern. Those that have a qpf fettish can relax a bit. Scott--can you provide more detail on what the qpf is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Actually more of SNE slammer on 0Z and MA 12Z so for me yes but who can tell with those graphics? It's hard to tell on the sites I use... looked like it tucked east a bit at 00z but it was definitely worse for the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Still a little surprised the the euro ensembles are that far east. having them look more like the Ukie and Canadian is a little concerning. It did look like there was a lot of spread to the west, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Later this morning we should probably make more of an effort to be on topic... fyi. This thread is going to be exploding when the 12z runs start trickling out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks, I appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Later this morning we should probably make more of an effort to be on topic... fyi. This thread is going to be exploding when the 12z runs start trickling out. I'll behave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Scott--can you provide more detail on what the qpf is? About 0.75" for you, but no doubt you would have great ratios. Looks like good chance for banding out that way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Still a little surprised the the euro ensembles are that far east. having them look more like the Ukie and Canadian is a little concerning. It did look like there was a lot of spread to the west, however. trend is good... it tucked west from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Later this morning we should probably make more of an effort to be on topic... fyi. This thread is going to be exploding when the 12z runs start trickling out. Yeah, the late nights and early mornings are for more relaxing convo lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yup just looked at EURO/ GFS/ UKMET first two smoke us! guess that could have something to do with why the front end loaders were called in. I've got 3 potential locale's to watch this from (should it hit) W. Framingham Bridgewater, ma or wa wa (although they may not stay open for it) Dave i was at wa wa last nite.....awesome time.....made it to connifer connection....had a blast after they groomed it. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 OT but why is it that I can sometime see the posters listed at the bottom of the thread, yet at other times I don't see that feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Still a little surprised the the euro ensembles are that far east. having them look more like the Ukie and Canadian is a little concerning. It did look like there was a lot of spread to the west, however. That sounds a little bit concerning actually, especially considering it trended more towards the Ukie and Canadian, but I guess as long as it still shows some decent spread to the west it's not anything to really be concerned about at this point. I would like to see the 12z runs back off this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Later this morning we should probably make more of an effort to be on topic... fyi. This thread is going to be exploding when the 12z runs start trickling out. This thread will be a new thread by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah I think were going to start and look, my mom just took this one b/c it was the only one we could find at the time and it was readily available and not having our own place for about 8 years we just took what we could get. This place is falling apart badly anyways and the landlords don't do anything, were not even really allowed to go onto are back or front porch b/c they are literally falling apart, the downstairs neighbors ceilings are cracking and I just noticed the walls in the bathroom are doing the same...the foundation is literally caving in lol. Move to a place with less spiders and centipedes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I crack myself up too. I like that you stick to your analysis!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 OT but why is it that I can sometime see the posters listed at the bottom of the thread, yet at other times I don't see that feature? To make the board go faster lol. Same reason PM gets disabled. It actually works really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 trend is good... it tucked west from 12z Oh so it was west of 12z..well that's good then. Move to a place with less spiders and centipedes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 About 0.75" for you, but no doubt you would have great ratios. Looks like good chance for banding out that way too. thanks. In light of Ryan's comment about staying on topic--perhaps we can continue to be light-hearted here as we ramp up to the 12z runs, we can lock this one down and start a new threat then? Based on yestesrday, I imagine between 12z and 00z today we will probably hit over 75 pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 To make the board go faster lol. Same reason PM gets disabled. It actually works really well. Ok. Thanks. I thought I hit a key and disabled it. Thanks for the response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Later this morning we should probably make more of an effort to be on topic... fyi. This thread is going to be exploding when the 12z runs start trickling out. We should probably start making a new one soon, like just before the 0z NAM comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Are the 6z GFS ensembles out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 thanks. In light of Ryan's comment about staying on topic--perhaps we can continue to be light-hearted here as we ramp up to the 12z runs, we can lock this one down and start a new threat then? Based on yestesrday, I imagine between 12z and 00z today we will probably hit over 75 pages. That's fine with me. We'll keep this going til 9 or so and then we can move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 That's fine with me. We'll keep this going til 9 or so and then we can move on. Let me know when you want me to start a new one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Let me know when you want me to start a new one Start it around 9 or so... we'll let this one die out with some discussion/banter since nothing new is really coming in until 9 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Are the 6z GFS ensembles out yet? Yeah Coastal just posted it lol-- they're on the previous page. I did the qpf totals and for this area three of the members show over 1" qpf (compared to 2 from the last set of ensembles) and 6 of them show 0.5" qpf or more (compared to 4 from the last set), overall mean has edged up from 0.35 to 0.46. According to the mean ensembles map though, we're over 0.50" qpf, so my numbers must be lowballing it a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/cfwGMdisplay.php A new flashy coastal flood threat page from BOX? Maybe its not new but it gives a little more then just the graph, for the coastal weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 seems JB (hype free) so i figured i would post it just whatever to the discussion from the accuweather page regarding the christmas storm "Expert Senior Meteorologist Dale Mohler stated that he is noticing some similarities on the charts with this storm and the March 1993 super storm."Every storm is different, but I could see how this storm 'bombs out' somewhere along the East Coast. The question is how far north or east," Mohler stated.AccuWeather.com meteorologists believe that none of the computer models have the exact idea on the storm, and they are basing current forecasts on years of experience in these situations.There are two scenarios for this storm, as the AccuWeather team sees it now.The first is the storm will quickly strengthen, tracking northward along the coast and spreading heavy, accumulating snow through the I-95 mid-Atlantic and New England. Snow could extend back to the Appalachians with this track.The second is the storm will drop accumulating snow on part of Georgia and the Carolinas, but then head out to sea. However, this track could still allow the storm to hook back into New England with heavy, windswept snow." the only thing that trouble's me is that there has never been a KU when 3.4 enso region is 1C below or more. but up until last week there had never been a AO below 4 with the same 3.4 enso region and we absolutely crushed that. But it should give reason for Pause. Ryan do you have any thoughts on this....and why this may mean the KU solution should be looked at with some skepitism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I just want to see a giant wall of snow moving s to n or se to nw up the coast sometime sunday and having no problem barreling right into the interior parts of sne..i want to see explosive heavy snow on the front end. So even if progressive there is a big hit. Really have to go back to the presidents day 2003 to find a storm that produced over a foot of snow across all of interior sne, there have been a couple that have produced widespread ten to twelve with locally higher amts but for widespread it goes back quite awhile so I think we are kind of due. I would feel a bit more comfortable if the heavy snow was breaking out across the entire mid atl corridor as well, it is interesting that nws out of bgm has a hwo up and as of a few minutes ago mt holly did not. The Jan 05 storm was very very disappointing for some of us in the valley as we got more than half our snow from the clipper like part of the system and just a few more inches when it bombed around the benchmark. The totals in the valley were generally in the nine to twelve inch range and like i said most of it came from the western part of the system. I know to the east of the river was a big crush and insane crush on the cape and islands. I also vividly remember nws accum forecasts in the valley of 20 to 30 inches, 16 to 24 inches in the grids right before and during the storm. I suppose anything is possible after what happened in the mid atlantic last year too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 seems JB (hype free) so i figured i would post it just whatever to the discussion from the accuweather page regarding the christmas storm "Expert Senior Meteorologist Dale Mohler stated that he is noticing some similarities on the charts with this storm and the March 1993 super storm."Every storm is different, but I could see how this storm 'bombs out' somewhere along the East Coast. The question is how far north or east," Mohler stated.AccuWeather.com meteorologists believe that none of the computer models have the exact idea on the storm, and they are basing current forecasts on years of experience in these situations.There are two scenarios for this storm, as the AccuWeather team sees it now.The first is the storm will quickly strengthen, tracking northward along the coast and spreading heavy, accumulating snow through the I-95 mid-Atlantic and New England. Snow could extend back to the Appalachians with this track.The second is the storm will drop accumulating snow on part of Georgia and the Carolinas, but then head out to sea. However, this track could still allow the storm to hook back into New England with heavy, windswept snow." the only thing that trouble's me is that there has never been a KU when 3.4 enso region is 1C below or more. but up until last week there had never been a AO below 4 with the same 3.4 enso region and we absolutely crushed that. But it should give reason for Pause. Ryan do you have any thoughts on this....and why this may mean the KU solution should be looked at with some skepitism. Probably not true. Only for measurable events of which there are not nearly enough examples to make this scientifically reliable as a predictive agent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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