dendrite Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 H5 on the EC ens mean looks quite a bit like the op EC...just a little less amped up. The low is more progressive like the op, but as you'd expect it's east. Anyone have the spag plots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Game on for plowable snowfall... My heart tells me... My brain tells me wait until 12z I am starting to believe that at least eastern sections will see something from this, in fact I would think the chances are definitely fairly good. Just given how we are still relatively a bit far out still I certainly wouldn't say 100%. I think the question we should soon start thinking is how much of the region actually gets involved and where we start seeing cutoffs. 12z tomorrow will certainly swing us in one direction or the other but I still think even with 12z tomorrow it's still a bit too early to start "guaranteeing" things, I would like to see pretty much perfect consistency from at least 2-3 of the models and perfect run-to-run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well the 6z NAM at 36 is looking much better than the 0z NAM was at 42...definitely more slower with the southern stream s/w and held back more...much better look with the northern stream s/w as well and to steal a word from Will it's more Consolidated as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It looks like it's already closing off too at 36 HR over western TX...much slower than the 0z run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro ensemble ticked east a bit from 12z... still a good hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro ensemble ticked east a bit from 12z... still a good hit though. I would certainly take most of those solutions for us...we might not get exactly crushed but we'd definitely make out pretty darn well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro ensemble ticked east a bit from 12z... still a good hit though. How does the NAM look to you....dnt think I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How does the NAM look to you....dnt think I like it. Hard to say... though it looks OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hard to say... though it looks OTS I think it absolutely blows dead goats, but then again, so do my H5 skills. Night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think it absolutely blows dead goats, but then again, so do my H5 skills. Night.... I mean it's not as bad as the GGEM. But it looks like the trough is a bit too progressive and will go negative a bit too late. Maybe a late hook for ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I mean it's not as bad as the GGEM. But it looks like the trough is a bit too progressive and will go negative a bit too late. Maybe a late hook for ENE. I'm telling you, this is a mod event at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I actually liked the 6z NAM...much slower with everything and much better with the southern and northern stream pieces. I'm not so sure if the low would develop that far east but I very well may be wrong. I think if we can just get that trough to dig west a hair more we'd be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm telling you, this is a mod event at best. Could be a scraper. I think there's the potential for a lot more though. I like that many of teh GFS ensembles are bigger/more west than the op. I'd be content with a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not bad, Brian Don't like that the 00z UK went east a bit. That's a bit concerning to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ummm hello lol. I don't think many of us would argue with that...unless you live on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I want to read the HPC discussion... that's west of virtually all operational guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm telling you, this is a mod event at best. Big Bomb, coastal hugger, taint issues for you. 3-8" for you is a good call. Big snow ends up West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I want to read the HPC discussion... that's west of virtually all operational guidance. Here it is... 158 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010 VALID 12Z MON DEC 27 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 30 2010 ...EAST COAST CYCLONE STILL INDICATED FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...USED THE 00Z/23 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FORDAYS 3 THROUGH 5...SWITCHING TO AN EVEN BLEND WITH THE 12Z/22ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SYNOPTICDETAIL INHERENT TO THAT TIME RANGE IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z/23 NAM AND GFS WERE LOW PROBABILITY OUTLIERS AT THE END OFTHE SHORT RANGE...OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEMGLOBAL...UKMET...ECMWF...AND GEFS MEAN. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATEDA MORE RAPID PROGRESSION THE BIG SYNOPTIC WAVE HEADED FOR THE EASTCOAST VIA EARLIER INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THEPLAINS STATES. THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC ECMWF RUN HAS COME EASTINTO THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN SLOT OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THEGEFS MEAN HAS COME WEST TO MEET IT...INSTILLING MORE CONFIDENCEWITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. THECLOSING OFF OF THE MID LEVEL VORTEX ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY INTHE PERIOD WILL ACT AS A STONE TO THE UPSTREAM FLOW...WITH SPLITENERGY OVER THE WEST NOODLING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THEDESERT SOUTHWEST. AFTER THE VORTEX DISLODGES...MUCH OF THE NATIONWILL BE AWASH IN PACIFIC AIR FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCENOVEMBER...WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES LENDINGTHEMSELVES TO MORE RELIANCE ON ENSEMBLE MEANS.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Here it is... 158 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010 VALID 12Z MON DEC 27 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 30 2010 ...EAST COAST CYCLONE STILL INDICATED FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...USED THE 00Z/23 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FORDAYS 3 THROUGH 5...SWITCHING TO AN EVEN BLEND WITH THE 12Z/22ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SYNOPTICDETAIL INHERENT TO THAT TIME RANGE IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z/23 NAM AND GFS WERE LOW PROBABILITY OUTLIERS AT THE END OFTHE SHORT RANGE...OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEMGLOBAL...UKMET...ECMWF...AND GEFS MEAN. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATEDA MORE RAPID PROGRESSION THE BIG SYNOPTIC WAVE HEADED FOR THE EASTCOAST VIA EARLIER INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THEPLAINS STATES. THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC ECMWF RUN HAS COME EASTINTO THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN SLOT OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THEGEFS MEAN HAS COME WEST TO MEET IT...INSTILLING MORE CONFIDENCEWITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. THECLOSING OFF OF THE MID LEVEL VORTEX ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY INTHE PERIOD WILL ACT AS A STONE TO THE UPSTREAM FLOW...WITH SPLITENERGY OVER THE WEST NOODLING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THEDESERT SOUTHWEST. AFTER THE VORTEX DISLODGES...MUCH OF THE NATIONWILL BE AWASH IN PACIFIC AIR FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCENOVEMBER...WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES LENDINGTHEMSELVES TO MORE RELIANCE ON ENSEMBLE MEANS.CISCO Doesn't explain why they went well west of the model consensus but still lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Doesn't explain why they went well west of the model consensus but still lol. Yeah wish they would have went into more of an explanation of why. This sentence "THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC ECMWF RUN HAS COME EAST INTO THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN SLOT OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THE GEFS MEAN HAS COME WEST TO MEET IT...INSTILLING MORE CONFIDENCEWITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES."Sort of contradicts the further westward placement of the sfc low...by that sentence I would think they would have had something in the middle of the GFS and ENS means.However, it does then go onto say that the closing off of the ML vortex early on to act as a stone upstream...I'm guessing they believe that with this occurring it would allow for better amplification of heights out ahead of it and also allow a bit of a deeper trough which would help with a more westward track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah wish they would have went into more of an explanation of why. This sentence Sort of contradicts the further westward placement of the sfc low...by that sentence I would think they would have had something in the middle of the GFS and ENS means. However, it does then go onto say that the closing off of the ML vortex early on to act as a stone upstream...I'm guessing they believe that with this occurring it would allow for better amplification of heights out ahead of it and also allow a bit of a deeper trough which would help with a more westward track. It was the Euro vs. the world yesterday, now its the Euro and some GFS ensembles vs. the world today...the 00 and 06Z NAM would have me less concerned if the RGEM was different but the RGEM followed it every step of the way for both runs overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro ensembles are pretty progressive. I can't tell if it's the progression of them that's causing it to "look" east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It was the Euro vs. the world yesterday, now its the Euro and some GFS ensembles vs. the world today...the 00 and 06Z NAM would have me less concerned if the RGEM was different but the RGEM followed it every step of the way for both runs overall. It was interesting seeing the GEM with an eastward shift tonight but if that occurred on the euro and the ensembles I think I'd be a bit more concerned. It's been pretty nice though seeing the GFS/Euro and it's ensembles being rather consistent over the past few days. If the GEM continues with this eastward solution tomorrow but the other models hold serve it could maybe complicate things a bit thinking wise but if it's further west than maybe we can believe this was a little "burp". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro ensembles are pretty progressive. I can't tell if it's the progression of them that's causing it to "look" east. The track itself looks pretty similar to 12z. Just more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro ensembles are pretty progressive. I can't tell if it's the progression of them that's causing it to "look" east. Not sure if you've read the past several pages of this thread but I made a point earlier about the high pressure building in and expanding between D5-6 on the euro...it also looks fairly strong, near 1030mb. It slides down through IA and then starts to expand...could this be the reason for the progressive look and more importantly for the reason for the east look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Game on for 1-2 feet for most less NW. Then we torch late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It was interesting seeing the GEM with an eastward shift tonight but if that occurred on the euro and the ensembles I think I'd be a bit more concerned. It's been pretty nice though seeing the GFS/Euro and it's ensembles being rather consistent over the past few days. If the GEM continues with this eastward solution tomorrow but the other models hold serve it could maybe complicate things a bit thinking wise but if it's further west than maybe we can believe this was a little "burp". At 96 hours, only 4-5 of the GEM members appear to be a hit, have been a hit, or are about to be...there are major timing issues on many of the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Game on for 1-2 feet for most less NW. Then we torch late next week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 96 hours, only 4-5 of the GEM members appear to be a hit, have been a hit, or are about to be...there are major timing issues on many of the members. I suppose at this range seeing timing issues is not out of the ordinary, I suspect we'd continue to see some issues and some inconsistencies in timing just b/c there is alot going on. For the next few days we don't exactly have to see models show perfect timing but as long as they show solutions that make things close than game is still fair. If we start to see the consensus trend towards solutions that show timing is not going to favor us than it's time to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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