snowNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why do I have a sinking feeling things just aren't gonna go our way today? Cause every threat since t-day hasn't worked out.. I think everyone has that feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think GFS holds serve or ticks west....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why do I have a sinking feeling things just aren't gonna go our way today? Because what is at stake here is March 1993, displaced 100-150 miles east; you are pessimistic for the same reason you are whenever you scratch a lottery ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Do you have a source for this? I don't see it mentioned at HPC or any local WFO's. Also, not sure how missing ACARS data from Europe would have any affect on our weather here... It is an interesting point though......I'm not sure how much the reduction in flights has cut down on the extent of data, but it's something I had never considered. I would assume that would be data that would be ingested in any models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Guys BTW not saying its effecting one model more than the other. As a total example if the GFS normally inputs 300 points of data and 30 are missing, that's a bigger deal than the EC losing 1000 out of 45k. I dont know the hard numbers. All I'm saying is it's a potential explanation to some of the challenges. Pazzo mentioned in the other thread that the flights had resumed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why do I have a sinking feeling things just aren't gonna go our way today? LOL - right. It's like the 1998 ALCS when they left Pedro on the mound (surviving Grady ) with a 5-3 lead in the 7th: The Red Sox were still winning, but you just knew they already lost. Sometimes it seems there is a creepy kind of separate form of intellect in this ...or any facet where outcomes are to be anticipated, and it transcends mere aplicaiton of logic and reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LOL - right. It's like the 1998 ALCS when they left Pedro on the mound (surviving Grady ) with a 5-3 lead in the 7th: The Red Sox were still winning, but you just knew they already lost. Sometimes it seems there is a creepy kind of separate form of intellect in this ...or any facet where outcomes are to be anticipated, and it transcends mere aplicaiton of logic and reason. 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why can it phase from days 6-8 tho? Like it did I dunno - could it be SATAN!? Wish I knew, because it doesn't always do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 2003. what he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm not going to lie...I'm more nervous about this storm than I was yesterday. 0z Euro was just about a perfect solution for coastal & eastern CT and I like the consistency with which its been bringing us a significant hit. But can't ignore the fact that the ensembles are further SE and that the other models trended away from a good hit last night. We really need the Euro to hold steady and other models to begin to trend. The op run is pretty far SE of the benchmark too. This thing (on the 00z Euro) is so intense and occluded the sfc low stays really far south... never makes it north of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I wouldn't worry about that of all things...after the Euro slows things down even more today...I'm sure we'll have until New Year's Day to get that low out of here. It will keep slowing down to become the infamous MLK storm of 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Obviously some of the pros have data out to 48-72, what's the hold up.... GFS nudged our trough back to the west, nice trend so many of us will get a 1/2 to 4 or so inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Obviously some of the pros have data out to 48-72, what's the hold up.... GFS nudged our trough back to the west, nice trend so many of us will get a 1/2 to 4 or so inches. Yeah, looking good in that regard anyway. Consolation prize if things go to hell this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah, looking good in that regard anyway. Consolation prize if things go to hell this afternoon. Dom, when was your last 1"+ snow in Nashua? I just realized that it has been 299 days since my last (2.0" on 2/26). that sure is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 50/50 low is a tick east, and the upstream western ridging is sharper. Both positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Dom, when was your last 1"+ snow in Nashua? I just realized that it has been 299 days since my last (2.0" on 2/26). that sure is depressing. I think it was last March, don't know the exact day. Too long, though...way too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I love the way our current off-shore low maintains its 972 depth from 18 to at least 42 hours and all teh while moves like 150 miles (if I'm reading it right). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Through hr60, looking significantly better. More ridging along the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Significantly better than the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Lead s/w still an issue. But otherwise, another big shift toward the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Significantly better than the 06z GFS. Going negative at 99, This will be west of 06z.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Through hr60, looking significantly better. More ridging along the east coast Yeah, this run is going to put some smiles back on the faces of many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'll give you one guess what run this looks like. Yep! The 21/12z Euro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Bomb 120 miles east of HSE at hr 108. Way better with nrn stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LOL 963 low 50-60 miles se of the BM. Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yahtzee!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 wow... what a BOMB! Let's get it to tuck back west a bit and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yahtzee!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Sharp cuttoff to the west as it drifts east off the benchmark, Better but still needs to get further north.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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